TSM
bullish medium Active
TSM Earnings
· 2026-04-16
· earnings
TSM beats again on reset expectations, sector tailwinds support
TSM has beaten 4 consecutive quarters with +6.7% average surprise, and estimates have been revised down 11.2% ($2.31 → $2.05), lowering the bar for another beat. Sell-the-news probability is only 35% (LOW), and priced-in risk is 0.15, indicating the market has already discounted caution. The 15% 1m pullback has reset valuation (18% below 52w high), while sector tailwinds (20% capex growth, peer strength) and 67% bullish signal consensus support a positive reaction.
Price Convergence
Baseline
$337.95
2026-03-31
Est. move
4–7%
bullish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #98
Created
Apr 1, 06:50
Agent Rubric Scores
Price Momentum
-1
Insider Activity
+0
Signal Consensus
+1
Analyst Sentiment
+0
Valuation Context
+1
Past Event Reactions
+2
Total
+3
Agent Research Trace
I'll research TSM ahead of the 2026-04-16 earnings date. Let me gather the necessary data.
compute_event_features
{"ticker": "TSM"}
query_peer_reactions
{"ticker": "TSM"}
query_factor_model
{"ticker": "TSM"}
query_price_history
{"ticker": "TSM"}
query_structured_data
{"ticker": "TSM"}
query_entity_signals
{"ticker": "TSM"}
query_past_predictions
{"ticker": "TSM"}
Edge analysis (compute_event_features)
=== PRICE MOMENTUM === Returns: 1w -6.49%, 1m -15.27%, 3m 4.81% From 52w high: -18.14% Volatility (20d): 42.5% === HISTORICAL EARNINGS REACTIONS === Last 4 quarters: 4/4 beats (100% beat rate) Q-1: BEAT (surprise: +3.2%) Q-2: BEAT (surprise: +6.8%) Q-3: BEAT (surprise: +11.2%) Q-4: BEAT (surprise: +5.5%) === INSIDER ACTIVITY === No insider data. === SHORT INTEREST === No short interest data. === SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY (computed) === Base rate: 40% of earnings beats sell off -10% (down -15% in 1m, low expectations) +5% (4 consecutive beats, bar is high) ESTIMATED SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY: 35% Risk level: LOW === PRICED-IN RISK SCORE === Priced-in risk: 0.15 (LOW) - Consistent beats (100%) === EDGE ANALYSIS === Surprise momentum: STABLE (avg +6.7%) Estimate drift: DOWN 11.2% ($2.31 → $2.05) Bar is dropping — easier to beat lowered expectations Market-adjusted: underperforming SPY by 21.0% (1w)
query_peer_reactions result
=== PEER REACTIONS (Semiconductors) === No recent peer earnings data.
query_factor_model result
=== FACTOR MODEL (quantitative baseline) === estimate_revisions: +0.033 — Estimates revised up 0.5% (raw: 0.5) insider_activity: +0.000 — No insider data price_momentum: -0.854 — DOWN 15.3% in 1m — negative momentum (raw: -15.27) analyst_revisions: +0.000 — Revisions 1up/1down (50% bullish) (raw: 0.
query_price_history result
Close: $316.5 (2026-03-30) Returns: 1w -6.49%, 1m -15.27%, 3m 4.81% Volatility (20d): 42.5% MA20: $340.58 (-7.07%), MA50: $347.06 (-8.81%) 52w range: $207.7 - $386.64 (-18.14% from high) Trend: downtrend
query_structured_data result
Insiders: no data Analysts: no data Earnings trend: beating Valuation/SI: P/E: 31.5, Mkt cap: $1695B
query_entity_signals result
Signals (72h): 15 total — 10 bullish, 1 bearish, 4 neutral Top headlines: [google-news-semiconductor] 2026 semiconductor capex to increase 20% YoY - Electronics Weekly [google-news-semiconductor] Silicon Resilience: Semiconductor Stocks Surge 4% as Dip-Buyers Defy Geopolitical Jitters - The Chro
query_past_predictions result
Overall accuracy: 0/0 (n/a) No scored predictions for TSM yet.
Now let me analyze this data systematically.
## DATA SUMMARY
**Price Momentum:**
- 1w: -6.49%, 1m: -15.27%, 3m: +4.81%
- 52w high: -18.14% (significant pullback)
- Volatility: 42.5% (elevated)
- Trend: downtrend, below MA20 and MA50
**Earnings History:**
- 4/4 beats (100% beat rate)
- Average surprise: +6.7%
- Consistent outperformance
**Event Risk Analysis:**
- **Sell-the-news probability: 35% (LOW)** — This is the critical metric
- Priced-in risk: 0.15 (LOW)
- Estimate drift: DOWN 11.2% ($...
submit_prediction
{"catalyst": "TSM Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-16", "headline": "TSM beats again on reset expectations, sector tailwinds support", "rubric_scores": {"analyst_sentiment": 0, "insider_activity": 0, "past_event_reactions": 2, "price_momentum": -1, "signal_consensus": 1, "valuation_context": 1}, "thesis": "TSM has beaten 4 consecutive quarters with +6.7% average surprise, and estimates have been revised down 11.2% ($2.31 \u2192 $2.05), lowering the bar for another beat. Sell-the-news probability is only 35% (LOW), and priced-in risk is 0.15, indicating the market has already discounted caution. The 15% 1m pullback has reset valuation (18% below 52w high), while sector tailwinds (20% capex growth, peer strength) and 67% bullish signal consensus support a positive reaction."}
Source Signals (9)
[yahoo-finance]
Elon Musk's Terafab: What It Is, and the 2 Stocks That Give You Exposure Right Now
[yahoo-finance]
Cathie Wood Going Cold On Big Tech? Ark Sells Nvidia, AMD, Meta And Google Stock — AI Darlings Get The Dump
[google-news-semiconductor]
Foundry 2.0 expansion boosts Taiwan’s chip packaging industry - Taiwan News
[yahoo-finance]
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Gains from Strong Demand and Its Industry-Leading Manufacturing Capabilities
[google-news-semiconductor]
AI boom strains Taiwan's SMC capacity, opens door for Samsung in chip race - The Economic Times
[google-news-semiconductor]
Arm Holdings Disrupts Semiconductor Market with Pivot to In-House Silicon - FinancialContent
[google-news-semiconductor]
Broadcom up 4.5% on Major Semiconductor Reversal - FXLeaders
[google-news-semiconductor]
Silicon Resilience: Semiconductor Stocks Surge 4% as Dip-Buyers Defy Geopolitical Jitters - The Chronicle-Journal
Refinement Chain (8 predictions)
Price Trajectory
Mar 30
$316.50
Mar 31
$337.95
Apr 1
$341.49
Apr 2
$339.04
Apr 6
$341.76
Apr 7
$345.32
Apr 8
$365.90
Apr 9
$365.49
Apr 10
$370.60
Apr 13
$369.57
Apr 14
$379.89
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