TSM bullish Prediction — TSM Earnings

TSMC Q1 earnings likely to beat consensus on AI/HPC momentum, with modest valuation relief and limited price run-up creating upside opportunity

TSMC's January 2026 revenue growth of 36.8% YoY and 51% exposure to high-performance computing (the fastest-growing AI segment) strongly signal a beat on the $3.28 EPS consensus. The stock has only run up 4% in one month and sits 12.6% below 52-week highs—far less priced-in than typical pre-earnings strength—giving genuine upside asymmetry. While the company has a beat pattern, the modest run-up and fundamental momentum (accelerating AI/HPC mix) suggest this beat may not be fully anticipated. Energy cost headwinds exist but are likely already reflected in guidance assumptions. On positive guidance tied to sustained AI demand, TSM should sustain or advance post-earnings.

Price Convergence

Source Signals (6)

[google-news-semiconductor] China plans its own ASML: semiconductor industry to become more independent - igor´sLAB

[yahoo-finance] 2 Monster Stocks to Hold for the Next 2 Years

[google-news-semiconductor] Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. $TSM Position Lowered by LGT Group Foundation - MarketBeat

[google-news-semiconductor] Not South Korea, Not The US: This Is The Country That Produces The Most Computer Chips - bgr.com

[google-news-semiconductor] [News] Middle East Energy Turmoil Raises Chip Risks, Spotlight on TSMC Power Use and Bromine for DRAM - TrendForce

Refinement Chain (8 predictions)

#49 ▲ TSMC Q1 earnings likely to beat and guide higher on persiste... invalidated view

#51 ▲ TSMC Q1 earnings likely to beat consensus with upside guided... invalidated view

#54 ▲ TSMC Q1 earnings likely to beat consensus with upside guided... invalidated view

#84 ▲ TSM beats again; momentum resumes after profit-taking dip invalidated view

#86 ▲ TSM beats again; momentum resumes after profit-taking dip invalidated view

#95 ▲ TSM beats again; momentum resumes after profit-taking dip invalidated view

#98 ▲ TSM beats again on reset expectations, sector tailwinds supp... active view

Price Trajectory

Mar 6

$337.94

Mar 9

$347.72

Mar 10

$346.11

Mar 11

$353.56

Mar 12

$335.76

Mar 13

$337.36

Mar 16

$339.27

Mar 17

$345.98

Mar 18

$339.57

Mar 19

$338.79

Mar 20

$329.24

Mar 23

$338.45

Mar 24

$343.25

Mar 25

$347.75

Mar 26

$326.11

Mar 27

$326.74

Mar 30

$316.50

Mar 31

$337.95

Apr 1

$341.49

Apr 2

$339.04

Apr 6

$341.76

Apr 7

$345.32

Apr 8

$365.90

Apr 9

$365.49

Apr 10

$370.60

Apr 13

$369.57

Apr 14

$379.89

Explore more

All calls → All stocks → How it works →