TSM bullish Prediction — TSM Earnings

TSMC Q1 earnings likely to beat consensus with upside guided on sustained AI/HPC momentum; modest run-up and valuation discount offset energy headwinds.

TSMC's Jan–Feb 2026 revenue growth of 30–36.8% YoY, with 51% HPC/AI exposure and 70% North American revenue base, strongly indicate a beat on $3.28 EPS consensus. The stock's modest 5.4% appreciation over one month and 10% discount to 52-week highs—despite fundamental momentum—suggest the beat is not fully priced in. Historical earnings_trend is 'beating,' and revenue_momentum is 'accelerating,' providing multi-year support. Institutional selling (Russell, LGT) is a soft caution signal but does not negate the underlying demand narrative. While valuation (P/E 31.76) is elevated and energy costs pose margin headwind, sustained North American capex from Nvidia/AMD and elevated utilization support upside guidance. On a beat + flat-to-higher guidance, TSM should sustain or advance post-earnings, with the compressed run-up creating asymmetric risk/reward.

Price Convergence

Source Signals (7)

[yahoo-finance] 2 Monster Stocks to Hold for the Next 2 Years

[google-news-semiconductor] Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. $TSM Position Lowered by LGT Group Foundation - MarketBeat

[google-news-semiconductor] Not South Korea, Not The US: This Is The Country That Produces The Most Computer Chips - bgr.com

[google-news-semiconductor] [News] Middle East Energy Turmoil Raises Chip Risks, Spotlight on TSMC Power Use and Bromine for DRAM - TrendForce

[google-news-semiconductor] TSMC Revenue Jumps 30% as Global AI Chip Demand Surges - Meyka

[google-news-semiconductor] Kaohsiung mayor visits US to boost semiconductor, AI partnerships - Taiwan News

Refinement Chain (8 predictions)

#40 ▲ TSMC Q1 earnings likely to beat consensus on AI/HPC momentum... invalidated view

#49 ▲ TSMC Q1 earnings likely to beat and guide higher on persiste... invalidated view

#54 ▲ TSMC Q1 earnings likely to beat consensus with upside guided... invalidated view

#84 ▲ TSM beats again; momentum resumes after profit-taking dip invalidated view

#86 ▲ TSM beats again; momentum resumes after profit-taking dip invalidated view

#95 ▲ TSM beats again; momentum resumes after profit-taking dip invalidated view

#98 ▲ TSM beats again on reset expectations, sector tailwinds supp... active view

Price Trajectory

Mar 9

$347.72

Mar 10

$346.11

Mar 11

$353.56

Mar 12

$335.76

Mar 13

$337.36

Mar 16

$339.27

Mar 17

$345.98

Mar 18

$339.57

Mar 19

$338.79

Mar 20

$329.24

Mar 23

$338.45

Mar 24

$343.25

Mar 25

$347.75

Mar 26

$326.11

Mar 27

$326.74

Mar 30

$316.50

Mar 31

$337.95

Apr 1

$341.49

Apr 2

$339.04

Apr 6

$341.76

Apr 7

$345.32

Apr 8

$365.90

Apr 9

$365.49

Apr 10

$370.60

Apr 13

$369.57

Apr 14

$379.89

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