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TSM

TSM

bullish medium
TSM Earnings · 2026-04-16 · earnings

TSM beats again; momentum resumes after profit-taking dip

TSM has beaten 4 consecutive quarters with +6.7% average surprise, establishing a proven track record of outperformance. Estimates have been lowered 11.2% ($2.31 → $2.05), creating an easier bar to beat. Sell-the-news probability is only 40% (below 55% threshold), and priced-in risk is LOW at 0.15, indicating the market hasn't fully priced in the beat probability. The recent 7.24% 1-month decline appears to be profit-taking after an 18.79% 3-month rally, not fundamental deterioration. Signal consensus is 80% bullish (12/15) with positive headlines about Arizona fab acceleration and logistics expansion.

Price Convergence

Baseline
$316.50
2026-03-30
Est. move
2–6%
bullish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #95
Created
Mar 31, 04:48

Source Signals (6)

[google-news-semiconductor] Semiconductor Stock Popularity Rises on AI and Tech Demand - News and Statistics - IndexBox
[google-news-semiconductor] The Semiconductor Core of Next-Generation Transportation Funds - AD HOC NEWS
[google-news-semiconductor] A Helium Shortage Is About to Hit the Chip Industry. Here’s Why That’s a Huge Problem. - Entrepreneur
[yahoo-finance] Elon Musk's Terafab: What It Is, and the 2 Stocks That Give You Exposure Right Now
[yahoo-finance] Cathie Wood Going Cold On Big Tech? Ark Sells Nvidia, AMD, Meta And Google Stock — AI Darlings Get The Dump
[google-news-semiconductor] AI surge drives foundry 2.0 market to $320B, up 16% YoY - Communications Today

Refinement Chain (8 predictions)

#40 TSMC Q1 earnings likely to beat consensus on AI/HPC momentum... invalidated view
#49 TSMC Q1 earnings likely to beat and guide higher on persiste... invalidated view
#51 TSMC Q1 earnings likely to beat consensus with upside guided... invalidated view
#54 TSMC Q1 earnings likely to beat consensus with upside guided... invalidated view
#84 TSM beats again; momentum resumes after profit-taking dip invalidated view
#86 TSM beats again; momentum resumes after profit-taking dip invalidated view
#98 TSM beats again on reset expectations, sector tailwinds supp... active view
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Price Trajectory

Mar 27
$326.74
Mar 30
$316.50
Mar 31
$337.95
Apr 1
$341.49
Apr 2
$339.04
Apr 6
$341.76
Apr 7
$345.32
Apr 8
$365.90
Apr 9
$365.49
Apr 10
$370.60
Apr 13
$369.57
Apr 14
$379.89

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