TSM bullish Prediction — TSM Earnings

TSM beats again; momentum resumes after profit-taking dip

TSM has beaten 4 consecutive quarters with +6.7% average surprise, establishing a proven track record of outperformance. Estimates have been lowered 11.2% ($2.31 → $2.05), creating an easier bar to beat. Sell-the-news probability is only 40% (below 55% threshold), and priced-in risk is LOW at 0.15, indicating the market hasn't fully priced in the beat probability. The recent 7.24% 1-month decline appears to be profit-taking after an 18.79% 3-month rally, not fundamental deterioration. Signal consensus is 80% bullish (12/15) with positive headlines about Arizona fab acceleration and logistics expansion.

Price Convergence

Source Signals (10)

[google-news-semiconductor] TSMC’s Arizona acceleration isn’t just about chips, it’s about strategy - New Electronics

[yahoo-finance] UPS opens $100 million Taiwan logistics hub to meet tech boom demand

[google-news-semiconductor] Return exceeds 400% since inception! The E Fund Asian Semiconductor ETF (03486) is listed today, capturing core opportunities in Asia's semiconductor industry. - 富途牛牛

[yahoo-finance] Arm unveils new AI chip, expects it to add billions in annual revenue

[?] (no title)

[google-news-semiconductor] GCC Semiconductor Market Overview: End-Use Industries, Imports & Market Expansion - vocal.media

[google-news-semiconductor] Silverleafe Capital Partners LLC Takes $1.15 Million Position in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. $TSM - MarketBeat

Refinement Chain (8 predictions)

#40 ▲ TSMC Q1 earnings likely to beat consensus on AI/HPC momentum... invalidated view

#49 ▲ TSMC Q1 earnings likely to beat and guide higher on persiste... invalidated view

#51 ▲ TSMC Q1 earnings likely to beat consensus with upside guided... invalidated view

#54 ▲ TSMC Q1 earnings likely to beat consensus with upside guided... invalidated view

#84 ▲ TSM beats again; momentum resumes after profit-taking dip invalidated view

#95 ▲ TSM beats again; momentum resumes after profit-taking dip invalidated view

#98 ▲ TSM beats again on reset expectations, sector tailwinds supp... active view

Price Trajectory

Mar 23

$338.45

Mar 24

$343.25

Mar 25

$347.75

Mar 26

$326.11

Mar 27

$326.74

Mar 30

$316.50

Mar 31

$337.95

Apr 1

$341.49

Apr 2

$339.04

Apr 6

$341.76

Apr 7

$345.32

Apr 8

$365.90

Apr 9

$365.49

Apr 10

$370.60

Apr 13

$369.57

Apr 14

$379.89

Explore more

All calls → All stocks → How it works →