TSM
bullish medium
TSM Earnings
· 2026-04-16
· earnings
TSM beats again; momentum resumes after profit-taking dip
TSM has beaten 4 consecutive quarters with +6.7% average surprise, establishing a proven track record of outperformance. Estimates have been lowered 11.2% ($2.31 → $2.05), creating an easier bar to beat. Sell-the-news probability is only 40% (below 55% threshold), and priced-in risk is LOW at 0.15, indicating the market hasn't fully priced in the beat probability. The recent 7.24% 1-month decline appears to be profit-taking after an 18.79% 3-month rally, not fundamental deterioration. Signal consensus is 80% bullish (12/15) with positive headlines about Arizona fab acceleration and logistics expansion.
Price Convergence
Baseline
$347.75
2026-03-25
Est. move
2–6%
bullish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #84
Created
Mar 26, 04:46
Agent Rubric Scores
Price Momentum
-1
Insider Activity
+0
Signal Consensus
+1
Analyst Sentiment
+1
Valuation Context
+0
Past Event Reactions
+2
Total
+3
Agent Research Trace
I'll research TSM ahead of the April 16, 2026 earnings and build a comprehensive analysis. Let me start by gathering the key data.
compute_event_features
{"ticker": "TSM"}
query_price_history
{"ticker": "TSM"}
query_structured_data
{"ticker": "TSM"}
query_entity_signals
{"ticker": "TSM"}
query_past_predictions
{"ticker": "TSM"}
query_peer_reactions
{"ticker": "TSM"}
Edge analysis (compute_event_features)
=== PRICE MOMENTUM === Returns: 1w -0.79%, 1m -7.24%, 3m 18.79% From 52w high: -11.47% Volatility (20d): 36.6% === HISTORICAL EARNINGS REACTIONS === Last 4 quarters: 4/4 beats (100% beat rate) Q-1: BEAT (surprise: +3.2%) Q-2: BEAT (surprise: +6.8%) Q-3: BEAT (surprise: +11.2%) Q-4: BEAT (surprise: +5.5%) === INSIDER ACTIVITY === No insider data. === SHORT INTEREST === No short interest data. === SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY (computed) === Base rate: 40% of earnings beats sell off -5% (down -7% in 1m, modest reset) +5% (4 consecutive beats, bar is high) ESTIMATED SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY: 40% Risk level: MODERATE === PRICED-IN RISK SCORE === Priced-in risk: 0.15 (LOW) - Consistent beats (100%) === EDGE ANALYSIS === Surprise momentum: STABLE (avg +6.7%) Estimate drift: DOWN 11.2% ($2.31 → $2.05) Bar is dropping — easier to beat lowered expectations
query_price_history result
Close: $343.25 (2026-03-24) Returns: 1w -0.79%, 1m -7.24%, 3m 18.79% Volatility (20d): 36.6% MA20: $350.33 (-2.02%), MA50: $348.02 (-1.37%) 52w range: $203.24 - $387.73 (-11.47% from high) Trend: downtrend
query_structured_data result
Insiders: no data Analysts: no data Earnings trend: beating Valuation/SI: P/E: 31.8, Mkt cap: $1708B
query_entity_signals result
Signals (72h): 15 total — 12 bullish, 3 bearish, 0 neutral Top headlines: [google-news-semiconductor] Return exceeds 400% since inception! The E Fund Asian Semiconductor ETF (03486) is listed today, capturing core opportunities in Asia's semiconductor industry. - 富途牛牛 [yahoo-finance] UPS opens $
query_past_predictions result
Overall accuracy: 0/1 (0%) No scored predictions for TSM yet.
query_peer_reactions result
=== PEER REACTIONS (Semiconductors) === No recent peer earnings data.
Excellent. Now let me analyze this systematically.
## ANALYSIS SUMMARY
### KEY QUANTITATIVE FINDINGS:
**Price Momentum:**
- Down 7.24% in 1 month (significant negative momentum)
- Down 11.47% from 52-week high
- 3-month return +18.79% (longer-term bullish)
- Volatility elevated at 36.6%
- Trading below MA20 and MA50 (downtrend)
**Earnings History:**
- 4/4 beats (100% beat rate) with average surprise of +6.7%
- Consistent outperformance: Q-1 +3.2%, Q-2 +6.8%, Q-3 +11.2%, Q-4 +5.5%
- Bar is HI...
submit_prediction
{"catalyst": "TSM Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-16", "headline": "TSM beats again; momentum resumes after profit-taking dip", "rubric_scores": {"analyst_sentiment": 1, "insider_activity": 0, "past_event_reactions": 2, "price_momentum": -1, "signal_consensus": 1, "valuation_context": 0}, "thesis": "TSM has beaten 4 consecutive quarters with +6.7% average surprise, establishing a proven track record of outperformance. Estimates have been lowered 11.2% ($2.31 \u2192 $2.05), creating an easier bar to beat. Sell-the-news probability is only 40% (below 55% threshold), and priced-in risk is LOW at 0.15, indicating the market hasn\u0027t fully priced in the beat probability. The recent 7.24% 1-month decline appears to be profit-taking after an 18.79% 3-month rally, not fundamental deterioration. Signal consensus is 80% bullish (12/15) with positive headlines about Arizona fab acceleration and logistics expansion."}
Source Signals (9)
[google-news-semiconductor]
Gradient Investments LLC Grows Stock Holdings in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. $TSM - MarketBeat
[google-news-semiconductor]
Broadcom warns of AI-driven supply crunch as TSMC capacity limits strain global chip industry - CXO Digitalpulse
[yahoo-finance]
Meet the Super Semiconductor Stock That Isn't Nvidia, AMD, or Broadcom
[google-news-semiconductor]
Another strong contender has emerged in the AI data center chip sector! Arm (ARM.US) unveiled its AGI CPU to challenge NVIDIA and AMD, with a sales target of $15 billion. - 富途牛牛
[?]
(no title)
[google-news-semiconductor]
TSMC’s Arizona acceleration isn’t just about chips, it’s about strategy - New Electronics
[yahoo-finance]
UPS opens $100 million Taiwan logistics hub to meet tech boom demand
[google-news-semiconductor]
Return exceeds 400% since inception! The E Fund Asian Semiconductor ETF (03486) is listed today, capturing core opportunities in Asia's semiconductor industry. - 富途牛牛
Refinement Chain (8 predictions)
Price Trajectory
Mar 23
$338.45
Mar 24
$343.25
Mar 25
$347.75
Mar 26
$326.11
Mar 27
$326.74
Mar 30
$316.50
Mar 31
$337.95
Apr 1
$341.49
Apr 2
$339.04
Apr 6
$341.76
Apr 7
$345.32
Apr 8
$365.90
Apr 9
$365.49
Apr 10
$370.60
Apr 13
$369.57
Apr 14
$379.89
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