INTC

bearish medium

INTC Earnings · 2026-04-23 · earnings

INTC Q1 earnings likely to confirm extended foundry runway, disappointing near-term guidance despite historical beat pattern

Intel's stock has already fallen 10.7% in one month on legitimate operational concerns: 18A yield problems, 2–3 year foundry maturation timeline, and competitive data center losses. Even though Intel historically beats earnings and insiders are buying, the consensus EPS estimate is essentially flat ($0.00 range: -$0.02 to +$0.06), indicating the market expects minimal earnings surprise. Guidance is likely to reinforce the slow foundry ramp and near-term margin pressure, a classic 'beat on numbers, miss on outlook' scenario where the stock declines post-event despite technical beat. The stock is 20% off highs and volatile (53% 20-day vol), making it highly sensitive to guidance disappointments. Regulatory risk and China chip tool scrutiny add tail risk to the downside.

Price Convergence

Baseline

$45.58

2026-03-09

Est. move

3–12%

bearish

Model

single-shot

prediction #42

Created

Mar 10, 04:45

Source Signals (2)

[yahoo-finance] Ericsson (ERIC), Intel (INTC) Expand Partnership to Accelerate AI-Native 6G Development

[google-news-semiconductor] Intel Corp Stock (INTC) Opened Down by 3.27% on Mar 9: What Signal Does It Send? - TradingKey

Refinement Chain (6 predictions)

#52 ▼ INTC Q1 earnings likely to confirm extended foundry runway, ... invalidated view

#115 ▼ INTC likely to sell off post-earnings despite beat probabili... invalidated view

#121 ▼ INTC likely to sell off post-earnings despite beat probabili... invalidated view

#125 ▼ INTC likely to sell off post-earnings despite beat probabili... invalidated view

#128 ▼ INTC likely to sell off despite beat; 60% sell-the-news risk active view

Share on X

Price Trajectory

Mar 6

$43.42

Mar 9

$45.58

Mar 10

$46.78

Mar 11

$47.98

Mar 12

$45.25

Mar 13

$45.77

Mar 16

$45.76

Mar 17

$44.06

Mar 18

$45.03

Mar 19

$46.18

Mar 20

$43.87

Mar 23

$44.01

Mar 24

$44.06

Mar 25

$47.18

Mar 26

$44.10

Mar 27

$43.13

Mar 30

$41.19

Mar 31

$44.13

Apr 1

$48.03

Apr 2

$50.38

Apr 6

$50.78

Apr 7

$52.91

Apr 8

$58.95

Apr 9

$61.72

Apr 10

$62.38

Apr 13

$65.18

Apr 14

$63.81

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