INTC
bearish medium
INTC Earnings
· 2026-04-23
· earnings
INTC likely to sell off post-earnings despite beat probability
INTC has run 21.86% in 1 month and sits 2.6% below 52-week high, creating a 60% sell-the-news probability even with a beat. Analyst revisions are heavily bearish (24 downgrades vs. 6 upgrades), and the factor model scores -0.87 (bearish). While the stock has a 75% beat rate and lowered expectations should aid surprise, the priced-in risk score of 0.75 (HIGH) and extreme 1-week momentum of 28.45% signal mean reversion risk of 30-40% over days 2-5 post-earnings. Risk/reward is asymmetric to the downside.
Price Convergence
Baseline
$52.91
2026-04-09
Est. move
4–8%
bearish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #115
Created
Apr 9, 22:50
Agent Rubric Scores
Price Momentum
-2
Insider Activity
+0
Signal Consensus
+1
Analyst Sentiment
-2
Valuation Context
-1
Past Event Reactions
+1
Total
-3
Agent Research Trace
I'll research INTC ahead of the 2026-04-23 earnings date. Let me gather the necessary data.
compute_event_features
{"ticker": "INTC"}
query_peer_reactions
{"ticker": "INTC"}
query_factor_model
{"ticker": "INTC"}
query_price_history
{"ticker": "INTC"}
query_structured_data
{"ticker": "INTC"}
query_entity_signals
{"ticker": "INTC"}
query_past_predictions
{"ticker": "INTC"}
Edge analysis (compute_event_features)
=== PRICE MOMENTUM === Returns: 1w 28.45%, 1m 21.86%, 3m 34.39% From 52w high: -2.6% Volatility (20d): 68.5% === HISTORICAL EARNINGS REACTIONS === Last 4 quarters: 3/4 beats (75% beat rate) Q-1: BEAT (surprise: +2769.8%) Q-2: MISS (surprise: -1280.6%) Q-3: BEAT (surprise: +3121.3%) Q-4: BEAT (surprise: +81.5%) === INSIDER ACTIVITY === 90-day: 1 buys, 1 sells (net ratio: 0.50, MIXED) Total value: $901,198 === SHORT INTEREST === No short interest data. === SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY (computed) === Base rate: 40% of earnings beats sell off +15% (up 22% in 1m, heavily priced in) +5% (within 2.6% of 52w high) ESTIMATED SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY: 60% Risk level: HIGH WARNING: Even if earnings beat, the stock is more likely to DROP than RISE. Consider bearish or skip. === PRICED-IN RISK SCORE === Priced-in risk: 0.75 (HIGH) - Strong run-up (22%) - Near 52w high - Consistent beats (75%) - High vol (68.5%) === EDGE ANALYSIS === Surprise momentum: ACCELERATING (+81.5% → +2769.8%, avg +1173.0%) Analysts are systematically behind — next surprise likely above consensus Estimate drift: DOWN 46.5% ($0.01 → $0.00) Bar is dropping — easier to beat lowered expectations Market-adjusted: outperforming SPY by 28.2% (1w) MEAN REVERSION: stock moved 28.45% in 1 week Extreme moves tend to partially reverse — 30-40% mean reversion over days 2-5
query_peer_reactions result
=== PEER REACTIONS (Semiconductors) === No recent peer earnings data.
query_factor_model result
=== FACTOR MODEL (quantitative baseline) === estimate_revisions: +0.197 — Estimates revised up 3.0% (raw: 3.0) insider_activity: +0.000 — Single insider selling $650,000 (likely routine/10b5-1) (raw: 0.0) price_momentum: -0.123 — UP 21.9% in 1m — overextended, reversion risk (raw: 21.86) analyst_rev
query_price_history result
Close: $52.91 (2026-04-07) Returns: 1w 28.45%, 1m 21.86%, 3m 34.39% Volatility (20d): 68.5% MA20: $46.03 (14.95%), MA50: $46.25 (14.4%) 52w range: $19.31 - $54.32 (-2.6% from high) Trend: uptrend
query_structured_data result
Insiders (90d): 1 buys, 1 sells — net mixed other by ?: undisclosed on 2026-03-10T04:19:54.889224+00:00 other by ?: undisclosed on 2026-03-10T04:19:54.889224+00:00 other by ?: undisclosed on 2026-03-07T22:16:32.189600+00:00 Analysts (30d): 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades — mixed Cantor Fitzgerald:
query_entity_signals result
Signals (72h): 15 total — 12 bullish, 1 bearish, 2 neutral Top headlines: [google-news-ai-infra] Stock Market Today, April 9: Intel Rises After Expanding Google Cloud AI Partnership for Data Center Push - The Motley Fool [?] Cantor Fitzgerald main INTC: Neutral → Neutral [yahoo-finance] Are In
query_past_predictions result
Overall accuracy: 0/0 (n/a) No scored predictions for INTC yet.
Now let me analyze this data systematically.
## DATA SUMMARY
**Price Momentum:**
- Up 28.45% in 1 week, 21.86% in 1 month, 34.39% in 3 months
- Only 2.6% below 52-week high ($54.32)
- Volatility: 68.5% (very high)
- Trading well above MA20 ($46.03) and MA50 ($46.25)
**Event Features (Critical):**
- **Sell-the-news probability: 60%** (HIGH RISK) — even with a beat, stock more likely to drop
- **Priced-in risk score: 0.75** (HIGH) — strong run-up, near 52w high, consistent beats
- Beat rate: 75...
submit_prediction
{"catalyst": "Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-23", "headline": "INTC likely to sell off post-earnings despite beat probability", "rubric_scores": {"analyst_sentiment": -2, "insider_activity": 0, "past_event_reactions": 1, "price_momentum": -2, "signal_consensus": 1, "valuation_context": -1}, "thesis": "INTC has run 21.86% in 1 month and sits 2.6% below 52-week high, creating a 60% sell-the-news probability even with a beat. Analyst revisions are heavily bearish (24 downgrades vs. 6 upgrades), and the factor model scores -0.87 (bearish). While the stock has a 75% beat rate and lowered expectations should aid surprise, the priced-in risk score of 0.75 (HIGH) and extreme 1-week momentum of 28.45% signal mean reversion risk of 30-40% over days 2-5 post-earnings. Risk/reward is asymmetric to the downside."}
Source Signals (10)
[google-news-semiconductor]
Lattice Semiconductor Jumps 6.18%: What’s Driving This Upward Rally? - Bitget
[yahoo-finance]
Intel Could Score Major Packaging Customers. Should You Buy INTC Stock Now?
[google-news-semiconductor]
Intel’s 18A Gamble Pays Off: The Multi-Billion Dollar AWS Deal and the Resurgence of American Silicon - FinancialContent
[google-news-nbis]
Better Datacenter Stock: CoreWeave Stock or Nebius Stock? - The Globe and Mail
[yahoo-finance]
Intel Lands Musk’s $25 Billion Terafab: A Billion-Dollar Foundry Win in the Making?
[google-news-ai-infra]
Intel stock continues to surge after extended Google partnership - Invezz
[techcrunch-ai]
Amazon CEO takes aim at Nvidia, Intel, Starlink, more in annual shareholder letter
[google-news-semiconductor]
Advanced Packaging AI Silicon Solutions Reshaping High Performance Semiconductor Hardware Systems - Technetbook
Refinement Chain (6 predictions)
Price Trajectory
Apr 6
$50.78
Apr 7
$52.91
Apr 8
$58.95
Apr 9
$61.72
Apr 10
$62.38
Apr 13
$65.18
Apr 14
$63.81
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