INTC
bearish medium Active
INTC Earnings
· 2026-04-23
· earnings
INTC likely to sell off despite beat; 60% sell-the-news risk
INTC is at 52-week high after a 30% 1-month surge, with sell-the-news probability computed at 60% — meaning even a beat is more likely to trigger a drop than a rise. Analyst sentiment is heavily bearish (20% bullish, 24 downgrades), and the 75% beat history is already fully priced in. Estimate drift DOWN 46.5% signals analyst pessimism. Mean reversion risk is high given the extreme 23.82% 1-week move and 74% volatility.
Price Convergence
Baseline
$62.38
2026-04-13
Est. move
4–7%
bearish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #128
Created
Apr 13, 12:49
Agent Rubric Scores
Price Momentum
-2
Insider Activity
+0
Signal Consensus
+0
Analyst Sentiment
-1
Valuation Context
-1
Past Event Reactions
+1
Total
-3
Agent Research Trace
I'll research INTC ahead of the 2026-04-23 earnings date. Let me gather the necessary data.
compute_event_features
{"ticker": "INTC"}
query_peer_reactions
{"ticker": "INTC"}
query_factor_model
{"ticker": "INTC"}
query_price_history
{"ticker": "INTC"}
query_structured_data
{"ticker": "INTC"}
query_entity_signals
{"ticker": "INTC"}
query_past_predictions
{"ticker": "INTC"}
Edge analysis (compute_event_features)
=== PRICE MOMENTUM === Returns: 1w 23.82%, 1m 30.01%, 3m 51.74% From 52w high: 0.0% Volatility (20d): 74.0% === HISTORICAL EARNINGS REACTIONS === Last 4 quarters: 3/4 beats (75% beat rate) Q-1: BEAT (surprise: +2769.8%) Q-2: MISS (surprise: -1280.6%) Q-3: BEAT (surprise: +3121.3%) Q-4: BEAT (surprise: +81.5%) === INSIDER ACTIVITY === 90-day: 1 buys, 1 sells (net ratio: 0.50, MIXED) Total value: $1,230,985 === SHORT INTEREST === No short interest data. === SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY (computed) === Base rate: 40% of earnings beats sell off +15% (up 30% in 1m, heavily priced in) +5% (within 0.0% of 52w high) ESTIMATED SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY: 60% Risk level: HIGH WARNING: Even if earnings beat, the stock is more likely to DROP than RISE. Consider bearish or skip. === PRICED-IN RISK SCORE === Priced-in risk: 0.75 (HIGH) - Strong run-up (30%) - Near 52w high - Consistent beats (75%) - High vol (74.0%) === EDGE ANALYSIS === Surprise momentum: ACCELERATING (+81.5% → +2769.8%, avg +1173.0%) Analysts are systematically behind — next surprise likely above consensus Estimate drift: DOWN 46.5% ($0.01 → $0.00) Bar is dropping — easier to beat lowered expectations Market-adjusted: outperforming SPY by 24.2% (1w) MEAN REVERSION: stock moved 23.82% in 1 week Extreme moves tend to partially reverse — 30-40% mean reversion over days 2-5
query_peer_reactions result
=== PEER REACTIONS (Semiconductors) === No recent peer earnings data.
query_factor_model result
=== FACTOR MODEL (quantitative baseline) === estimate_revisions: +0.197 — Estimates revised up 3.0% (raw: 3.0) insider_activity: +0.000 — Single insider selling $981,000 (likely routine/10b5-1) (raw: 0.0) price_momentum: -0.583 — UP 30.0% in 1m — overextended, reversion risk (raw: 30.01) analyst_rev
query_price_history result
Close: $62.38 (2026-04-10) Returns: 1w 23.82%, 1m 30.01%, 3m 51.74% Volatility (20d): 74.0% MA20: $48.18 (29.47%), MA50: $47.21 (32.14%) 52w range: $19.31 - $62.38 (0.0% from high) Trend: uptrend
query_structured_data result
Insiders (90d): 1 buys, 1 sells — net mixed other by ?: undisclosed on 2026-03-10T04:19:54.889224+00:00 other by ?: undisclosed on 2026-03-10T04:19:54.889224+00:00 other by ?: undisclosed on 2026-03-07T22:16:32.189600+00:00 Analysts (30d): 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades — mixed Benchmark: main → ?
query_entity_signals result
Signals (72h): 14 total — 6 bullish, 0 bearish, 8 neutral Top headlines: [google-news-semiconductor] VAT Group AG stock (CH0311864901): Is semiconductor demand recovery strong enough for new upside? - AD HOC NEWS [benzinga] Intel, Nebius, And Applied Optoelectronics Are Among the Top 10 Large-Ca
query_past_predictions result
Overall accuracy: 1/1 (100%) No scored predictions for INTC yet.
Now let me analyze this data systematically.
## DATA SUMMARY
**Price Momentum:**
- Up 30% in 1 month, 51.74% in 3 months
- At 52-week high (0.0% from high)
- Volatility: 74% (extremely high)
- MA20: $48.18 (29.5% below current), MA50: $47.21 (32% below current)
**Event Features (Critical):**
- **Sell-the-news probability: 60%** (HIGH RISK) — even with a beat, stock more likely to drop
- **Priced-in risk: 0.75 (HIGH)** — 30% run-up, at 52w high, consistent beats, high vol
- Beat rate: 75% (3/4...
submit_prediction
{"catalyst": "Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-23", "headline": "INTC likely to sell off despite beat; 60% sell-the-news risk", "rubric_scores": {"analyst_sentiment": -1, "insider_activity": 0, "past_event_reactions": 1, "price_momentum": -2, "signal_consensus": 0, "valuation_context": -1}, "thesis": "INTC is at 52-week high after a 30% 1-month surge, with sell-the-news probability computed at 60% \u2014 meaning even a beat is more likely to trigger a drop than a rise. Analyst sentiment is heavily bearish (20% bullish, 24 downgrades), and the 75% beat history is already fully priced in. Estimate drift DOWN 46.5% signals analyst pessimism. Mean reversion risk is high given the extreme 23.82% 1-week move and 74% volatility."}
Source Signals (4)
[yahoo-finance]
Google (GOOGL), Intel (INTC) Partner to Advance AI Cloud Infrastructure
[yahoo-finance]
Intel Surges Before Q1 Earnings Report—Should You Buy INTC Stock?
[benzinga]
Intel, Nebius, And Applied Optoelectronics Are Among the Top 10 Large-Cap Gainers Last Week (April 6-April 10): Are the Others in Your Portfolio?
[google-news-semiconductor]
VAT Group AG stock (CH0311864901): Is semiconductor demand recovery strong enough for new upside? - AD HOC NEWS
Refinement Chain (6 predictions)
Price Trajectory
Apr 10
$62.38
Apr 13
$65.18
Apr 14
$63.81
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