← All predictions
INTC

INTC

bearish medium
INTC Earnings · 2026-04-23 · earnings

INTC likely to sell off post-earnings despite beat probability

INTC has rallied 30% in 1 month to 52-week highs, pricing in a beat with 60% sell-the-news probability. Despite a 75% historical beat rate, analyst revisions are 80% bearish (6 up / 24 down), and the stock faces 30-40% mean reversion risk after a 23.82% 1-week move. No insider buying in 90 days signals lack of conviction at current levels. Even if earnings beat, the extreme run-up and high volatility (74%) make a post-earnings pullback more likely than continued gains.

Price Convergence

Baseline
$62.38
2026-04-11
Est. move
4–8%
bearish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #125
Created
Apr 12, 02:49

Agent Rubric Scores

Price Momentum
-2
Insider Activity
+0
Signal Consensus
+0
Analyst Sentiment
-1
Valuation Context
-1
Past Event Reactions
+1
Total -3

Agent Research Trace

I'll research INTC ahead of the 2026-04-23 earnings date. Let me gather the necessary data.
compute_event_features {"ticker": "INTC"}
query_peer_reactions {"ticker": "INTC"}
query_factor_model {"ticker": "INTC"}
query_price_history {"ticker": "INTC"}
query_structured_data {"ticker": "INTC"}
query_entity_signals {"ticker": "INTC"}
query_past_predictions {"ticker": "INTC"}
Edge analysis (compute_event_features) 
=== PRICE MOMENTUM ===
Returns: 1w 23.82%, 1m 30.01%, 3m 51.74%
From 52w high: 0.0%
Volatility (20d): 74.0%

=== HISTORICAL EARNINGS REACTIONS ===
Last 4 quarters: 3/4 beats (75% beat rate)
  Q-1: BEAT (surprise: +2769.8%)
  Q-2: MISS (surprise: -1280.6%)
  Q-3: BEAT (surprise: +3121.3%)
  Q-4: BEAT (surprise: +81.5%)

=== INSIDER ACTIVITY ===
90-day: 0 buys, 0 sells (net ratio: 0.50, MIXED)
Total value: $25,000,008

=== SHORT INTEREST ===
No short interest data.

=== SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY (computed) ===
Base rate: 40% of earnings beats sell off
  +15% (up 30% in 1m, heavily priced in)
  +5% (within 0.0% of 52w high)
ESTIMATED SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY: 60%
Risk level: HIGH
WARNING: Even if earnings beat, the stock is more likely to DROP than RISE. Consider bearish or skip.

=== PRICED-IN RISK SCORE ===
Priced-in risk: 0.75 (HIGH)
  - Strong run-up (30%)
  - Near 52w high
  - Consistent beats (75%)
  - High vol (74.0%)

=== EDGE ANALYSIS ===
Surprise momentum: ACCELERATING (+81.5% → +2769.8%, avg +1173.0%)
  Analysts are systematically behind — next surprise likely above consensus
Estimate drift: DOWN 46.5% ($0.01 → $0.00)
  Bar is dropping — easier to beat lowered expectations
Market-adjusted: outperforming SPY by 24.2% (1w)
MEAN REVERSION: stock moved 23.82% in 1 week
  Extreme moves tend to partially reverse — 30-40% mean reversion over days 2-5
query_peer_reactions result 
=== PEER REACTIONS (Semiconductors) ===
  No recent peer earnings data.
query_factor_model result 
=== FACTOR MODEL (quantitative baseline) ===
estimate_revisions: +0.197 — Estimates revised up 3.0% (raw: 3.0)
insider_activity: +0.000 — Minimal insider activity ($0)
price_momentum: -0.583 — UP 30.0% in 1m — overextended, reversion risk (raw: 30.01)
analyst_revisions: -0.834 — Revisions 6up/24down
query_price_history result 
Close: $62.38 (2026-04-10)
Returns: 1w 23.82%, 1m 30.01%, 3m 51.74%
Volatility (20d): 74.0%
MA20: $48.18 (29.47%), MA50: $47.21 (32.14%)
52w range: $19.31 - $62.38 (0.0% from high)
Trend: uptrend
query_structured_data result 
Insiders (90d): 0 buys, 0 sells — net mixed
  other by ?: undisclosed on 2026-03-10T04:19:54.889224+00:00
  other by ?: undisclosed on 2026-03-10T04:19:54.889224+00:00
  other by ?: undisclosed on 2026-03-07T22:16:32.189600+00:00
Analysts (30d): 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades — mixed
  Benchmark: main → ?
query_entity_signals result 
Signals (72h): 15 total — 7 bullish, 0 bearish, 8 neutral
Top headlines:
  [yahoo-finance] Intel Surges Before Q1 Earnings Report—Should You Buy INTC Stock?
  [yahoo-finance] Google (GOOGL), Intel (INTC) Partner to Advance AI Cloud Infrastructure
  [?] Intel reported Q1 revenue of $12.7 billion, at
query_past_predictions result 
Overall accuracy: 1/1 (100%)
No scored predictions for INTC yet.
Now let me analyze this data systematically. ## DATA SUMMARY **Price Momentum:** - Up 30% in 1 month, 51.74% in 3 months - At 52-week high (0% from high) - Volatility: 74% (extremely high) - MA20: 29.47% above, MA50: 32.14% above (extended) **Event Features (Critical):** - **Sell-the-news probability: 60%** (HIGH RISK) — even with a beat, stock more likely to drop - Priced-in risk score: 0.75 (HIGH) - Beat rate: 75% (3/4 last quarters) - Surprise momentum accelerating (+81.5% → +2769.8%) - Es...
submit_prediction {"catalyst": "Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-23", "headline": "INTC likely to sell off post-earnings despite beat probability", "rubric_scores": {"analyst_sentiment": -1, "insider_activity": 0, "past_event_reactions": 1, "price_momentum": -2, "signal_consensus": 0, "valuation_context": -1}, "thesis": "INTC has rallied 30% in 1 month to 52-week highs, pricing in a beat with 60% sell-the-news probability. Despite a 75% historical beat rate, analyst revisions are 80% bearish (6 up / 24 down), and the stock faces 30-40% mean reversion risk after a 23.82% 1-week move. No insider buying in 90 days signals lack of conviction at current levels. Even if earnings beat, the extreme run-up and high volatility (74%) make a post-earnings pullback more likely than continued gains."}

Source Signals (8)

[yahoo-finance] Huge, Unusual Intel Put Options Volume - a Bullish INTC Signal
[yahoo-finance] Teradyne (TER) Soars to All-Time High — Time to Book Profits?
[google-news-semiconductor] Intel's Rally Might Have Outrun Its Turnaround (NASDAQ:INTC) - Seeking Alpha
[google-news-ai-infra] Intel Corporation stock (US4581401001): Is the AI infrastructure push strong enough to unlock new up - AD HOC NEWS
[yahoo-finance] Stocks Slip Before the Open as Oil Rebounds Amid Fragile U.S.-Iran Ceasefire, PCE Inflation and GDP Data in Focus
[yahoo-finance] Super Micro Computer Is Auditing China Allegations Itself. Does That Make SMCI Stock a Buy?
[yahoo-finance] Google (GOOGL), Intel (INTC) Partner to Advance AI Cloud Infrastructure
[yahoo-finance] Intel Surges Before Q1 Earnings Report—Should You Buy INTC Stock?

Refinement Chain (6 predictions)

#42 ▼ INTC Q1 earnings likely to confirm extended foundry runway, ... invalidated view
#52 ▼ INTC Q1 earnings likely to confirm extended foundry runway, ... invalidated view
#115 ▼ INTC likely to sell off post-earnings despite beat probabili... invalidated view
#121 ▼ INTC likely to sell off post-earnings despite beat probabili... invalidated view
#128 ▼ INTC likely to sell off despite beat; 60% sell-the-news risk active view
Share on X

Price Trajectory

Apr 8
$58.95
Apr 9
$61.72
Apr 10
$62.38
Apr 13
$65.18
Apr 14
$63.81

Explore more

All calls → All stocks → How it works →