MSTR

bearish medium Active

MSTR Earnings · 2026-04-30 · earnings

MSTR likely to miss again; insider selling + miss history outweigh low priced-in risk

MSTR has missed 3 of 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of -3,656.5%, and insiders have sold $2M in 90 days with zero buys. While the sell-the-news probability is moderate (40%) and priced-in risk is low (0.20), the stock's consistent miss pattern and heavy insider selling suggest another disappointment is likely. The stock is down 71.78% from its 52-week high and trading below both MA20 and MA50, indicating structural weakness that a miss would exacerbate.

Price Convergence

Baseline

$132.36

2026-04-14

Est. move

7–15%

bearish

Model

agent-v1

prediction #133

Created

Apr 14, 20:51

Source Signals (1)

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Refinement Chain (4 predictions)

#114 ▼ MSTR earnings likely to disappoint; 75% miss rate and inside... invalidated view

#118 ▼ MSTR earnings likely to disappoint; 75% miss rate and inside... invalidated view

#129 ▼ MSTR likely to miss again; insider selling + miss history ou... invalidated view

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Price Trajectory

Apr 13

$132.36

Apr 14

$137.41

Apr 15

$143.54

Apr 16

$148.94

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