MSTR
bearish medium
MSTR Earnings
· 2026-04-30
· earnings
MSTR likely to miss again; insider selling + miss history outweigh low priced-in risk
MSTR has missed 3 of 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of -3,656.5%, and insiders have sold $2M in 90 days with zero buys. While the sell-the-news probability is moderate (40%) and priced-in risk is low (0.20), the stock's consistent miss pattern and heavy insider selling suggest another disappointment is likely. The stock is down 71.78% from its 52-week high and trading below both MA20 and MA50, indicating structural weakness that a miss would exacerbate.
Price Convergence
Baseline
$128.64
2026-04-13
Est. move
6–12%
bearish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #129
Created
Apr 13, 20:50
Agent Rubric Scores
Price Momentum
-1
Insider Activity
-1
Signal Consensus
+1
Analyst Sentiment
+0
Valuation Context
-1
Past Event Reactions
-2
Total
-4
Agent Research Trace
I'll research MSTR ahead of the April 30, 2026 earnings and build a comprehensive analysis. Let me gather the necessary data.
compute_event_features
{"ticker": "MSTR"}
query_peer_reactions
{"ticker": "MSTR"}
query_factor_model
{"ticker": "MSTR"}
query_price_history
{"ticker": "MSTR"}
query_structured_data
{"ticker": "MSTR"}
query_entity_signals
{"ticker": "MSTR"}
query_past_predictions
{"ticker": "MSTR"}
Edge analysis (compute_event_features)
=== PRICE MOMENTUM === Returns: 1w 7.35%, 1m -7.0%, 3m -22.96% From 52w high: -71.78% Volatility (20d): 54.7% === HISTORICAL EARNINGS REACTIONS === Last 4 quarters: 1/4 beats (25% beat rate) Q-1: MISS (surprise: -14890.9%) Q-2: BEAT (surprise: +382.5%) Q-3: MISS (surprise: -13.0%) Q-4: MISS (surprise: -104.5%) === INSIDER ACTIVITY === 90-day: 0 buys, 11 sells (net ratio: 0.00, SELLING) Total value: $2,032,104 === SHORT INTEREST === No short interest data. === SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY (computed) === Base rate: 40% of earnings beats sell off -5% (down -7% in 1m, modest reset) +5% (heavy insider selling) ESTIMATED SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY: 40% Risk level: MODERATE === PRICED-IN RISK SCORE === Priced-in risk: 0.20 (LOW) - Heavy insider selling - High vol (54.7%) === EDGE ANALYSIS === Surprise momentum: DECELERATING (-104.5% → -14890.9%, avg -3656.5%) Surprises shrinking — analysts catching up, miss risk increasing Estimate drift: DOWN 101.6% ($6.76 → $-0.11) Bar is dropping — easier to beat lowered expectations Insider $ flow: NET SELLING ($1,953,756 sell / $0 buy) Insiders cashing out — may know something or simply diversifying Market-adjusted: outperforming SPY by 7.7% (1w)
query_peer_reactions result
=== PEER REACTIONS (Software - Application) === No recent peer earnings data.
query_factor_model result
=== FACTOR MODEL (quantitative baseline) === estimate_revisions: -1.000 — Estimates revised down 135.5% (raw: -135.5) insider_activity: +0.000 — Single insider selling $1,953,756 (likely routine/10b5-1) (raw: 0.0) price_momentum: -0.525 — DOWN 7.0% in 1m — negative momentum (raw: -7.0) analyst_revis
query_price_history result
Close: $128.64 (2026-04-10) Returns: 1w 7.35%, 1m -7.0%, 3m -22.96% Volatility (20d): 54.7% MA20: $132.53 (-2.93%), MA50: $132.92 (-3.22%) 52w range: $106.99 - $455.9 (-71.78% from high) Trend: downtrend
query_structured_data result
Insiders (90d): 0 buys, 11 sells — net selling sell by ?: $270,654 on 2026-04-10T22:18:04.965066+00:00 exercise by ?: $39,173 on 2026-04-10T22:18:04.965066+00:00 sell by ?: $172,653 on 2026-04-07T18:18:24.392365+00:00 Analysts (30d): 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades — mixed TD Cowen: main → ? BTIG
query_entity_signals result
Signals (72h): 6 total — 4 bullish, 0 bearish, 2 neutral Top headlines: [benzinga] Strategy Buys 13,927 Bitcoin For $1 Billion As MSTR Squeezes Into A Make-Or-Break Level [yahoo-finance] Michael Saylor Says Just 2% Bitcoin Growth Covers MicroStrategy’s Dividends Forever [yahoo-finance] Crypto
query_past_predictions result
Overall accuracy: 1/1 (100%) No scored predictions for MSTR yet.
Now let me analyze this data systematically:
## ANALYSIS SUMMARY
### KEY QUANTITATIVE SIGNALS:
**Factor Model Output:** -2.53 → **Bearish/High conviction**
- Estimate revisions: -1.00 (estimates DOWN 135.5%)
- Price momentum: -0.525 (DOWN 7% in 1m, -22.96% in 3m)
- Filing risk: -0.08 (1 new risk item)
- Insider activity: 0.00 (11 sells, 0 buys = net selling)
**Event Features:**
- **Sell-the-news probability: 40%** (MODERATE risk, below 55% threshold)
- **Priced-in risk: 0.20 (LOW)** — market...
submit_prediction
{"catalyst": "Q1 2026 earnings on April 30, 2026", "headline": "MSTR likely to miss again; insider selling + miss history outweigh low priced-in risk", "rubric_scores": {"analyst_sentiment": 0, "insider_activity": -1, "past_event_reactions": -2, "price_momentum": -1, "signal_consensus": 1, "valuation_context": -1}, "thesis": "MSTR has missed 3 of 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of -3,656.5%, and insiders have sold $2M in 90 days with zero buys. While the sell-the-news probability is moderate (40%) and priced-in risk is low (0.20), the stock\u0027s consistent miss pattern and heavy insider selling suggest another disappointment is likely. The stock is down 71.78% from its 52-week high and trading below both MA20 and MA50, indicating structural weakness that a miss would exacerbate."}
Source Signals (4)
[yahoo-finance]
TD Cowen Sees More Than One Crypto Treasury Winner
[yahoo-finance]
Crypto Ends The Week Higher After U.S.-Iran Ceasefire
[yahoo-finance]
Michael Saylor Says Just 2% Bitcoin Growth Covers MicroStrategy’s Dividends Forever
[benzinga]
Strategy Buys 13,927 Bitcoin For $1 Billion As MSTR Squeezes Into A Make-Or-Break Level
Refinement Chain (4 predictions)
Price Trajectory
Apr 10
$128.64
Apr 13
$132.36
Apr 14
$137.41
Apr 15
$143.54
Apr 16
$148.94
Apr 17
$166.52
Apr 20
$170.81
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