MSTR
bearish high
MSTR Earnings
· 2026-04-30
· earnings
MSTR earnings likely to disappoint; 75% miss rate and insider selling
MSTR has missed earnings in 3 of last 4 quarters (75% miss rate) with severe negative surprises averaging -3,656% across recent quarters. Insiders have sold $5.3M with zero buys in 90 days, signaling lack of confidence. The stock is down 72.86% from 52-week highs and trading below both 20-day and 50-day moving averages in a clear downtrend. While recent sentiment signals are bullish and priced-in risk is low, this reflects capitulation rather than opportunity — estimates have drifted down 101.6%, making the bar nearly impossible to miss but also indicating fundamental deterioration.
Price Convergence
Baseline
$123.72
2026-04-08
Est. move
6–15%
bearish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #114
Created
Apr 9, 06:53
Agent Rubric Scores
Price Momentum
-2
Insider Activity
-2
Signal Consensus
+1
Analyst Sentiment
+0
Valuation Context
-1
Past Event Reactions
-2
Total
-6
Agent Research Trace
I'll research MSTR ahead of the April 30, 2026 earnings and build a comprehensive analysis. Let me start by gathering all the necessary data.
compute_event_features
{"ticker": "MSTR"}
query_peer_reactions
{"ticker": "MSTR"}
query_factor_model
{"ticker": "MSTR"}
query_price_history
{"ticker": "MSTR"}
query_structured_data
{"ticker": "MSTR"}
query_entity_signals
{"ticker": "MSTR"}
query_past_predictions
{"ticker": "MSTR"}
Edge analysis (compute_event_features)
=== PRICE MOMENTUM === Returns: 1w 1.88%, 1m -7.35%, 3m -24.89% From 52w high: -72.86% Volatility (20d): 52.6% === HISTORICAL EARNINGS REACTIONS === Last 4 quarters: 1/4 beats (25% beat rate) Q-1: MISS (surprise: -14890.9%) Q-2: BEAT (surprise: +382.5%) Q-3: MISS (surprise: -13.0%) Q-4: MISS (surprise: -104.5%) === INSIDER ACTIVITY === 90-day: 0 buys, 12 sells (net ratio: 0.00, SELLING) Total value: $5,313,484 === SHORT INTEREST === No short interest data. === SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY (computed) === Base rate: 40% of earnings beats sell off -5% (down -7% in 1m, modest reset) +5% (heavy insider selling) ESTIMATED SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY: 40% Risk level: MODERATE === PRICED-IN RISK SCORE === Priced-in risk: 0.20 (LOW) - Heavy insider selling - High vol (52.6%) === EDGE ANALYSIS === Surprise momentum: DECELERATING (-104.5% → -14890.9%, avg -3656.5%) Surprises shrinking — analysts catching up, miss risk increasing Estimate drift: DOWN 101.6% ($6.76 → $-0.11) Bar is dropping — easier to beat lowered expectations Insider $ flow: NET SELLING ($5,274,310 sell / $0 buy) Insiders cashing out — may know something or simply diversifying
query_peer_reactions result
=== PEER REACTIONS (Software - Application) === No recent peer earnings data.
query_factor_model result
=== FACTOR MODEL (quantitative baseline) === estimate_revisions: +0.235 — Estimates revised up 3.6% (raw: 3.6) insider_activity: +0.000 — Single insider selling $5,274,310 (likely routine/10b5-1) (raw: 0.0) price_momentum: -0.546 — DOWN 7.3% in 1m — negative momentum (raw: -7.35) analyst_revisions:
query_price_history result
Close: $123.72 (2026-04-07) Returns: 1w 1.88%, 1m -7.35%, 3m -24.89% Volatility (20d): 52.6% MA20: $133.94 (-7.63%), MA50: $134.82 (-8.23%) 52w range: $106.99 - $455.9 (-72.86% from high) Trend: downtrend
query_structured_data result
Insiders (90d): 0 buys, 12 sells — net selling sell by ?: $172,653 on 2026-04-07T18:18:24.392365+00:00 exercise by ?: $26,116 on 2026-04-07T18:18:24.392365+00:00 sell by ?: $89,628 on 2026-04-01T18:43:47.919603+00:00 Analysts (30d): 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades — mixed BTIG: reit → ? Citigroup
query_entity_signals result
Signals (72h): 9 total — 7 bullish, 0 bearish, 2 neutral Top headlines: [?] BTIG reit MSTR: Buy → Buy [benzinga] Strategy's New Product Grew Faster Than The iPhone And Google Ads Combined [yahoo-finance] Crypto Stocks Skyrocket As Investors Rush Back Into Risk Assets
query_past_predictions result
Overall accuracy: 0/0 (n/a) No scored predictions for MSTR yet.
Now let me analyze this data systematically.
## ANALYSIS SUMMARY
### KEY FINDINGS:
**BEAR CASE:**
1. **Earnings History is Terrible**: 1/4 beats (25% beat rate) — 3 of last 4 quarters were misses. Most recent miss was -104.5% surprise.
2. **Price Momentum is Negative**: Down 7.35% in 1 month, down 24.89% in 3 months, down 72.86% from 52-week high. Stock is in a downtrend.
3. **Heavy Insider Selling**: 12 sells, 0 buys in 90 days totaling $5.3M. Insiders are cashing out.
4. **Estimate Drift is...
submit_prediction
{"catalyst": "Q1 2026 earnings on April 30, 2026", "headline": "MSTR earnings likely to disappoint; 75% miss rate and insider selling", "rubric_scores": {"analyst_sentiment": 0, "insider_activity": -2, "past_event_reactions": -2, "price_momentum": -2, "signal_consensus": 1, "valuation_context": -1}, "thesis": "MSTR has missed earnings in 3 of last 4 quarters (75% miss rate) with severe negative surprises averaging -3,656% across recent quarters. Insiders have sold $5.3M with zero buys in 90 days, signaling lack of confidence. The stock is down 72.86% from 52-week highs and trading below both 20-day and 50-day moving averages in a clear downtrend. While recent sentiment signals are bullish and priced-in risk is low, this reflects capitulation rather than opportunity \u2014 estimates have drifted down 101.6%, making the bar nearly impossible to miss but also indicating fundamental deterioration."}
Source Signals (4)
[yahoo-finance]
Bitcoin Topped $70,000 Today. More Wall Street Firms Are Building Up Crypto Services
[yahoo-finance]
Strategy Resumes Bitcoin Buying With $330 Million Purchase
[yahoo-finance]
Crypto Stocks Skyrocket As Investors Rush Back Into Risk Assets
[benzinga]
Strategy's New Product Grew Faster Than The iPhone And Google Ads Combined
Refinement Chain (4 predictions)
Price Trajectory
Apr 6
$127.69
Apr 7
$123.72
Apr 8
$128.30
Apr 9
$128.86
Apr 10
$128.64
Apr 13
$132.36
Apr 14
$137.41
Apr 15
$143.54
Apr 16
$148.94
Apr 17
$166.52
Apr 20
$170.81
Explore more