TSM Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited

bullish 1/3 shifts correct ↓ $418.45 -6.41 (-1.5%)
Mkt Cap $2.2T P/E 35.9 fwd 21.4 52wk $192.20 - $430.55 Earnings beating 2h ago
⚠
Avoided topics on last call (2026Q1): specific margin guidance numbers beyond general targets, detailed competitor strategies, specific timing and scale of advanced packaging technology rollouts, detailed plans about lost customer's specific product lines
Insider buying: $6,718 bought by 1 insider (30d)
Est. revisions: +5.0% (4 up, 0 down in 30d)
Factor Model (net +2.5)

Factor Model

net +2.5 5.8 / 10
Est. Revisions
+0.3
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.5
Analyst Rev.
+1.0
Narrative Gap
+0.0

TSMC posts record margins, upgrades growth forecast

Watch: Monitor Q2 earnings for AI demand sustainability and US capex execution amid Taiwan-China tensions.

TSMC reported Q1 2026 revenue of $35.9 billion, up 6.4% sequentially, with record 66.2% gross margin and 58.1% operating margin led by 61% high-performance computing revenue up 20% sequentially (Yahoo Finance). Bernstein raised TSM price target to $430, expecting 28% EPS CAGR over 2.5 years, reaffirming Outperform rating. Management promised a 30% bonus bump reflecting profit surge. TSMC continues capex focus with AI-driven packaging fabs expansion amid geopolitical concerns about Taiwan-China tensions.

TSMC's strong margins and robust growth guidance underpinned by AI demand solidify its leadership in semiconductor manufacturing and justify premium valuation despite geopolitical risks.

Position history (4d) bull bear neutral
2026-05-02 2026-05-23
All 4 daily readings
2026-05-23 bullish · high 7sig
2026-05-11 bullish · high 7sig
2026-05-03 bullish · high 6sig
2026-05-02 bullish · high 7sig

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Ripple Effect

When TSM goes bullish, NVDA follows 2x (50% same direction)

Evidence

3h ago Inside Taiwan's Semiconductor Heart: A 10-Minute Scooter Ride to TSMC - Seoul Economic Daily google-news-semiconductor
3h ago MediaTek Accepts Both Intel and TSMC Packaging as AI Chip Boom Reshapes Semiconductor Supply Chains - Tekedia google-news-semiconductor
Updated Saturday Am I supposed to just keep holding forever? When do people actually sell? reddit-stocks
Updated Saturday China invading Taiwan Impact reddit-stocks
Updated Saturday Bill Gates Once Said He Wouldn't Want To Be The Nvidia CEO: 'Jensen Doesn't Even Make His Own Chip...' benzinga
Updated Saturday Is This Why Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) is One of the Best 52-week High Stocks to Invest In? yahoo-finance
Updated Saturday TSMC CEO Promises Staff Massive 30% Bonus Bump as Profits Surge. This Is a Clear Message for TSM Stock Bulls. yahoo-finance
Updated Saturday TSMC is the Hormuz Strait of semiconductors. I moved 30% of my portfolio over today. reddit-wsb
7 older signals
Updated Friday MediaTek client passes TSMC for Intel - Taipei Times
Updated Friday Jupiter Asset Management Ltd. Has $36.38 Million Stock Position in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Ltd. $TSM - MarketBeat
Updated Friday TSM vs Broadcom: Both Nearing 52-Week High, Only One is a Buy - 24/7 Wall St.
Updated Friday TSMC Technology Symposium 2026: A systems-driven era - New Electronics
Updated Friday Analysis-Huawei bets on speed over shrinking transistors to sidestep US chip sanctions - Yahoo Finance UK
Updated Thursday Taiwan’s economy is booming thanks to AI. Not everyone sees the benefits - Al Jazeera
4d ago Nvidia's Taiwan Investment Highlights A New AI Supply Chain Reality
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited Technology · Semiconductors
Mkt Cap
$2.2T
P/E
35.9 fwd 21.4
Beta
1.26
Div Yield
91.00%
52w Range
$192.20 - $430.55
Short Interest
28.8M 0.59%
Days to Cover
1.9 +12%
Technicals uptrend
vs 20d MA
+2.8%
vs 50d MA
+10.3%
from 52w Hi
-1.5%
Vol (20d)
37%
1w return
+2.8%
1m return
+6.2%
3m return
+12.0%
Vol ratio
0.8x
Insiders
buying 3B / 0S
Analysts
mixed
Earnings
beating 4B / 0M
EPS Estimate
$3.74 +5.0% 30d 4up / 0dn
Est. Dispersion
4% 6 analysts
Analyst Target
$468 $354 - $600
Options P/C
2.75 0C / 6P unusual
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Coatue, D.E. Shaw, Elliott, Tiger Global
Financials
Revenue
$1134.1B +35% YoY
FCF
$347.3B
Gross Margin
66%
Op Margin
58%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $4.2B
Coatue $2.6B
D.E. Shaw $1.7B
Elliott $1.5B
Tiger Global $1.1B
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 1
net buying · $6,718 bought
1 insider · 1 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
TIEN BOR-ZEN · buy · $6,718
congress trade 1
Cleo Fields (Democrat-LA) · buy · $1K-$15K
Transcript Analysis (2026Q1) ▾

Management communicates with confident specificity and ownership while showing moderate hedging and occasional evasiveness on sensitive competitive and margin details.

Hedging
0.35
Confidence
0.75 (high)
Specificity
0.65
Active Voice
0.72
Prepared vs Q&A Gap
-0.10
Question Avoidance
4 (high)
Avoided Topics
specific margin guidance numbers beyond general targets detailed competitor strategies specific timing and scale of advanced packaging technology rollouts detailed plans about lost customer's specific product lines
Key Language Changes
  • Repeated emphasis on customer partnership and collaboration in pricing and capacity decisions
  • Shift towards cautious optimism with frequent mentions of external risk factors such as Middle East situation
  • Avoidance of detailed guidance on profit margins and competitor dynamics in Q&A
  • Strong repetition of technology leadership and capacity expansion to justify confidence
Track Record (1/3 correct) ▾

Direction History

1/3 correct at 5 days
2026-03-25 bullish -1.8% ✗
2026-03-17 bearish -0.8% ✓
2026-03-07 bullish -0.5% ✗
Full track record across all stocks →
ⓘ TSM does not file 10-K/10-Q with the SEC
bullish for 4d | 15 signals · latest 3h ago

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