INTC Intel Corporation

bearish 1/2 calls correct ↓ $68.50 +3.56 (+5.5%) +9.8% since call
Mkt Cap $313B 52wk $18.25 - $63.39 Earnings beating 22h ago
Avoided topics on last call (2025Q1): explicit timeline for turnaround, quantitative margin trajectory, specific new foundry customers, detailed competitive positioning in AI, internal versus external wafer manufacturing mix beyond general statements
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
Material Events (8-K)
8-K
Board Chair Retirement and Leadership Change

Frank Yeary, Chair of the Board of Intel Corporation, announced his retirement effective after the 2026 Annual Meeting of Stockholders and will not stand for reelection. The Board will reduce its size...

Filed 2026-03-03 · Frank Yeary, Chair of the Board, Dr. Craig H. Barratt, incoming Chair of the Board
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: estimate_revisions, analyst_revisions bullish vs price_momentum bearish
Est. revisions: +189.5% (1 up, 0 down in 30d)
Next event: Upcoming event (est. 4–7% move)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)
Factor Model (net +1.9)

Factor Model

net +1.9 3.8 / 10
Est. Revisions
+1.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
-1.0
Analyst Rev.
+1.0
Narrative Gap
+0.0

Intel joins Terafab, rallies on AI and cloud deals

Watch: Intel's Q2 earnings will test demand resilience, margin sustainability, and impact of tariffs amid ongoing AI infrastructure investments.

Intel joined Elon Musk's Terafab chipmaking initiative targeting one terawatt annual computing capacity, confirmed by CEO Lip Bu Tan's visit with Musk. The company reported Q1 revenue of $12.7B, non-GAAP gross margin of 39.2%, and EPS of 13 cents, beating guidance amid a 58% nine-day rally. Intel partnered with Alphabet on AI infrastructure and leads adoption of ASML's advanced EUV systems for its 14A node, pushing process leadership.

Intel's alignment with AI super-cycle demand, advanced manufacturing technology, and strategic cloud partnerships suggest a compelling recovery and leadership resurgence in semiconductors despite macro risks and tariff headwinds.

Position history (4d) bull bear neutral
2026-03-27 2026-04-13
All 4 daily readings
2026-04-13 bearish · medium 8sig
2026-03-30 bearish · high 4sig
2026-03-29 bearish · high 7sig
2026-03-27 bearish · high 8sig
$62.38 2026-04-13

Event Predictions

bearish Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-23
7d

INTC likely to sell off despite beat; 60% sell-the-news risk

+9.8% $62.38 → $68.50
Thesis

INTC is at 52-week high after a 30% 1-month surge, with sell-the-news probability computed at 60% — meaning even a beat is more likely to trigger a drop than a rise. Analyst sentiment is heavily bearish (20% bullish, 24 downgrades), and the 75% beat history is already fully priced in. Estimate drift DOWN 46.5% signals analyst pessimism. Mean reversion risk is high given the extreme 23.82% 1-week move and 74% volatility.

Related Stocks

Evidence

7 older signals
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Intel Corporation Technology · Semiconductors
Mkt Cap
$313B
Beta
1.35
52w Range
$18.25 - $63.39
Short Interest
115.0M 2.3%
Days to Cover
1.6 -2%
Technicals uptrend
vs 20d MA
+31.1%
vs 50d MA
+41.0%
from 52w Hi
0.0%
Vol (20d)
74%
1w return
+11.0%
1m return
+55.5%
3m return
+40.6%
Vol ratio
1.0x
Insiders
buying 2B / 1S
Analysts
mixed
Earnings
beating 3B / 1M
EPS Estimate
$0.01 +189.5% 30d 1up / 0dn
Analyst Target
$51 $20 - $92
Options P/C
0.70
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Renaissance, Two Sigma, D.E. Shaw, Bridgewater
Financials
Revenue
$13.7B -4% YoY
FCF
$800M
Gross Margin
36%
Op Margin
4%
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $3.0B
Renaissance $365M
Two Sigma $192M
D.E. Shaw $121M
Bridgewater
Recent Filings & Data
material event 1
Frank Yeary, Chair of the Board of Intel Corporation, announced his retirement effective after the 2026 Annual Meeting o... SEC↗
transcript 4
2025Q4 · 8593 words
read transcript
Operator (Operator): Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Intel Corporation's Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, participants are in listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during this session, you'll need to press star 11 on your telephone. If your question has been answered and you'd like to remove yourself from the queue, simply press star 11 again. As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Mr. John Pitzer, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir. John Pitzer (Senior Vice President, Investor Relations): Thank you, Jonathan, and good afternoon to everyone joining us today. By now, you should have received a copy of the Q4 earnings release and earnings presentation, both of which are available on our investor website, intc.com. For those joining us online today, the earnings presentation is also available in our webcast window. I am joined today by our CEO, Lip-Bu Tan, and our CFO, David Zinsner. Lip-Bu will open with comments on our fourth quarter results as well as provide an update on the progress we are making on our strategic priorities. Dave will then discuss our overall financial results, including first quarter guidance, before we transition to answer your questions. Before we begin, please note that today's discussion does contain forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it, and as such, are subject to various risks and uncertainties. It also contains references to non-GAAP financial measures that we believe provide useful information to our investors. Our earnings release, most recent annual report on Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC provide more information on specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. They also provide additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures including reconciliations where appropriate to our corresponding GAAP financial measures. With that, let me turn things over to Lip-Bu. Lip-Bu Tan (CEO): Thank you, John, and thank you all for joining us today. 2025 was a year of solid progress. Over the last 10 months, we established the foundation for new Intel, a more focused and execution-driven company. We simplified our organization and greatly reduced bureaucracy to improve efficiency and accelerate decision-making. We also recruited new leaders from the outside and empowered key leaders from within. We strengthened our balance sheet, forged strong new partnerships, and deepened relationships with existing as well as new customers. I'm encouraged by my conversations with our customers and partners around the world. I'm hearing a clear, consistent message. They see the progress we are making; they want Intel at the table as they navigate their own transformations. The opportunity in front of us is meaningful and significant. The era of artificial intelligence is driving unprecedented demand for semiconductors across the entire compute landscape from AI-accelerated and traditional data centers into the network and enterprise domains all the way out to client and edge devices. Rapid deployment of AI workloads across this diverse environment will require heterogeneous silicon solutions, leveraging CPU, embedded NPUs, discrete and integrated GPU, ASICs, and XPUs. In addition, we will need to see innovation in the software stack along with new emerging technologies like photonics, memory interfaces, interconnect, and quantum, to name just a few. The breadth of our IP and know-how across silicon design, system-level integration, wafer manufacturing, and advanced packaging uniquely positions us to capitalize on these AI-driven trends and capture sustainable profitable growth. This will not happen overnight, and our execution needs to continue to improve. While we will stay humble as we address the work ahead, we will never be satisfied. Our Q4 was another positive step forward. Revenue, gross margin, and EPS were all above our guidance. We delivered these results despite supply constraints, which meaningfully limited our ability to capture all of the strengths in our underwriting markets. We are working aggressively to address this and better support our customers' needs going forward. Looking ahead for 2026, we will continue to position Intel to capture the significant growth opportunity AI presents across all our businesses. We will do this by strengthening our client franchise, advancing our data center, AI accelerator, and ASICs strategies, and continuing to build trusted U.S. foundry. Let me start with our core x86 franchise, which remains the most widely deployed compute architecture in the world. The deployment of AI is only amplifying the importance of x86 from orchestration and control planes to inference edge workloads and agentic AI. In our Client Computing Group, we strengt ... [transcript truncated at 5,000 chars — full text available via API]
2025Q3 · 7412 words
read transcript
Operator (Operator): Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Intel Corporation's Third Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, John Pitzer, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir. John Pitzer (Vice President, Investor Relations): Thank you, Jonathan, and good afternoon to everyone joining us today. By now, you should have received a copy of the Q3 earnings release and earnings presentation, both of which are available on our Investor Relations website, intc.com. For those joining us online today, the earnings presentation is also available in our webcast window. I am joined today by our CEO, Lip-Bu Tan; and our CFO, David Zinsner. Lip-Bu will open up with comments on our third quarter results as well as provide an update on our progress implementing strategic priorities. Dave will then discuss our overall financial results, including fourth quarter guidance before we transition to answer your questions. Before we begin, please note that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it and, as such, are subject to various risks and uncertainties. It also contains references to non-GAAP financial measures that we believe provide useful information to our investors. Our earnings release, most recent annual report on Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC provide more information on specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. They also provide additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures including reconciliations where appropriate to our corresponding GAAP financial measures. With that, let me turn things over to Lip-Bu. Lip-Bu Tan (CEO): Thank you, John, and let me add my welcome this afternoon. We delivered a solid Q3 with revenue, gross margin, earnings per share above guidance. This marks the fourth consecutive quarter of improved execution driven by the underlying growth in our core markets and the steady progress we are making to rebuild the company. While we still have a long way to go, we are taking the right steps to create sustainable shareholder value. We significantly improved our cash position and liquidity in Q3, a key focus for me since becoming CEO in March. This includes accelerated funding from the United States government, important investments from NVIDIA and SoftBank Group, and monetizing a portion of Altera and Mobileye. The actions we took to strengthen the balance sheet give us greater operational flexibility and position us well to continue to execute our strategy with confidence. In particular, I'm honored by the trust and confidence President Trump and Secretary Lutnick have placed in me. Their support highlights Intel's strategic role as the only U.S.-based semiconductor company with leading-edge logic R&D and manufacturing. We are fully committed to advancing the Trump administration's vision of restoring semiconductor production and proudly welcome the U.S. government as our essential partners in our efforts. We also made tangible progress to improve our execution this quarter. We remain on track not only to rightsize the company by year-end, but also to evolve the talent mix, reestablish the engineering-first mindset and optimize the executive and management levels across the organization. We are seeing a significant increase in day-to-day energy and collaborations as our employees return to the office after a sustained period of remote and hybrid work. Let me dive deeper into our underlying business trend. Over the course of my career, I have had the privilege of contributing in multiple ways to disruptive innovation. But I can't recall a time when I have been more excited about the future of computing and the opportunities in front of us. We are still in the early stage of the AI revolution, and I believe Intel can and will play a much more significant role as we transform the company. Let's start with our core x86 franchise, which continues to play a critical role in the age of AI. AI is clearly accelerating demand for new compute architectures, hardware models, and algorithms, while at the same time fueling renewed growth of traditional compute as the underlying data and the resulting insights continue to rely heavily on our existing products from cloud to edge. AI is driving near-term upside to our business and it is a strong foundation for sustainable long-term growth as we execute. In addition, with unmatched compatibility, security, and flexibility by virtue of being the largest installed base of general purpose compute, x86 is well positioned to power the hybrid compute environment that AI workloads demand, particularly for inference edge workloads and agentic systems. It is a great starting point from which to rebuild our market position, revitalizing and rejuvenating the x86 ISA, and positioning for the new era of compu ... [transcript truncated at 5,000 chars — full text available via API]
2025Q2 · 8794 words
read transcript
John William Pitzer (Vice President, Investor Relations): Thank you for standing by, and welcome to Intel Corporation's Second Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, Mr. John Pitzer, Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir. Thank you, Jonathan, and good afternoon to everyone joining us today. By now, you should have received a copy of the Q2 earnings release and earnings presentation, both of which are available on our investor website, intc.com. For those joining us online today, the earnings presentation is also available in our webcast window. I am joined today by our CEO, Lip-Bu Tan; and by our CFO, David Zinsner. Lip-Bu will open with comments on our second quarter results as well as provide an update on our strategy and priorities. Dave will then discuss our overall financial results, including third quarter guidance, before we transition to answer your questions. Before we begin, please note that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it and, as such, are subject to various risks and uncertainties. It also contains references to non-GAAP financial measures that we believe provide useful information to our investors. Our earnings release, most recent annual report on Form 10-K and other filings with the SEC provide more information on specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. They also provide additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations, where appropriate, to our corresponding GAAP financial measures. With that, let me turn things over to Lip-Bu. Lip-Bu Tan (CEO): Thank you, John, and let me add my welcome. We had a solid Q2 with revenue above the high end of our guidance. This reflects strong demand across our business and good execution by the team. As expected, headline profitability was impacted by several one-time items and impairments. But I am pleased by the underlying operating performance in the quarter, even as we have more work to do. Dave will go through our detailed financials shortly. Today, I want to provide you with updates on four major initiatives where we have started to make progress and will continue to focus in coming quarters: our organization and culture, our foundry strategy, our core x86 franchise, and our AI strategy. First, on organization and culture. Over the last three months, I have completed a systematic review of every organization and function reporting to the CEO. These reviews included detailed analysis of headcount, skill sets, spending, site distribution, executive population, and restructuring plans. We have much work to do in building a clean and streamlined organization, which we have started in earnest and has remained an area of focus for me during Q3. Our goal is to reduce inefficiencies and redundancies and increase accountability at every level of the company. As mentioned in our Q1 earnings call, we need to rightsize and scale back the company while ensuring that we are retaining our best internal talent and hiring the best external talent from industry and universities. During Q2, we completed the majority of the actions needed to achieve our year-end target of 75,000 employees. These were hard but necessary decisions, and we reduced management layers by approximately 50% in the process. We are on track to implement our return-to-office mandate starting September. These actions are necessary not just to reduce our operating expenses, but to make the company more agile, collaborative, and vibrant to simplify our business and improve our product and process execution. Next, on our foundry strategy. I continue to believe that our heritage and expertise in semiconductor technology development and manufacturing remains a very valuable and vital asset. I also fully appreciate the strategic importance of U.S.-domiciled semiconductor manufacturing. Transforming this unique asset into a robust foundry business requires us to take a systematic approach and act from a position of strength. The foundry business is a service business that relies on foundational principles of trust. We need to demonstrate to our customers that we can deliver wafers on time with high quality, reliability, and yield that we can manufacture their products at scale. We need to have process and packaging technology that is not only competitive but, more importantly, is designed to meet the needs of our customers. In addition, we also need to develop a rich and diverse ecosystem of IP and EDA partners who will enable our customers to seamlessly design chips using our process. And finally, perhaps most importantly, we need to build capacity smartly and carefully on a schedule that meets the needs of our customers and supports the economics of our business. This approach is fundamentally different than the pat ... [transcript truncated at 5,000 chars — full text available via API]
2025Q1 · 9933 words
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Operator (Operator): Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Intel Corporation First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. After the speakers' presentation, there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during this session, you'll need to press star 11 on your telephone. If your question has been answered and you'd like to remove yourself from the queue, simply press star 11 again. As a reminder, today's program is being recorded. And now I'd like to introduce your host for today's program, John Pitzer, Corporate Vice President, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir. John Pitzer (Corporate Vice President, Investor Relations): Thank you, Jonathan, and good afternoon to everyone joining us today. By now, you should have received a copy of the Q1 earnings release and earnings presentation, both of which are available on our Investor Relations website, intc.com. For those joining us online today, the earnings presentation is also available in our webcast window. I'm joined today by our CEO, Lip Bu Tan, and our CFO, David Zinsner. Lip Bu will open with comments on our first quarter results as well as some initial observations, priorities, and actions that he is driving. Dave will then discuss our overall financial results, including second quarter guidance. We will then transition to answer your questions. Before we begin, please note that today's discussion contains forward-looking statements based on the environment as we currently see it and as such, are subject to various risks and uncertainties. It also contains references to non-GAAP financial measures that we believe provide useful information to our investors. Our earnings release and most recent annual report on Form 10-Ks and other filings with the SEC provide more information on specific risk factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our expectations. They also provide additional information on our non-GAAP financial measures, including reconciliations where appropriate to our corresponding GAAP financial measures. With that, let me turn things over to Lip Bu. Lip Bu Tan (CEO): Thank you, John. And let me add my welcome. I joined Intel Corporation five weeks ago. The reason I'm here is simple. I love our company. I saw the challenges we were facing, and I could not sit on the sidelines knowing I had the opportunity to turn things around and put us back on the path to gain market share and drive sustainable growth. Q1 was a step in the right direction. Driven by Dave and Michelle's leadership, we delivered revenue, gross margins, and EPS above our guidance. I want to thank them both as well as our teams for the good execution, especially with the ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty. Our goal now is to build on this progress. But it won't be easy. There are many areas we need to improve, and there are no quick fixes. We must remain laser-focused on execution. One of my biggest learnings so far is that we need to fundamentally transform our culture and the way in which we operate. Organizational complexity and bureaucracies have been suffocating the innovation and agility we need to win. It takes too long for decisions to get made. New ideas and people who generate them have not been given the room or resources to incubate and grow. The unnecessary silos have led to bad execution. I'm here to fix this. I'm taking swift action to simplify the way we do business and drive transparency and accountability across the company. We will empower smaller teams to move faster and make better decisions, and we will significantly reduce the number of layers that get in their way. As a first step, I have flattened the structure of my leadership team. All critical product, manufacturing, and GNA functions, which were spread over two to three layers, are now directly reporting to me. This will allow me to get closer to our product and engineering groups and work directly with them to close the gaps with competition more quickly. I will apply the same streamlining approach across the company with a focus on empowering our engineering talents to create great products and make it easier for our customers to do business with us. To accelerate this simplification, we are taking more costs out of the business. We have lowered our calendar 2025 and calendar 2026 OpEx targets. We now expect OpEx of $17 billion this year and $16 billion next year. In addition, as we continue to identify ways to operate our manufacturing network more efficiently, I have directed our teams to find an additional $2 billion of savings in our gross CapEx, taking our target for this year to $18 billion. We will continue to take a closer look at our existing factory footprint to ensure that we are making the most efficient use of our installed capacity before committing to any additional spending. I will continue to make the needed investment to reignite innovation even as we reduce our overall ... [transcript truncated at 5,000 chars — full text available via API]
Transcript Analysis (2025Q1) ▾

Management communicates with moderate confidence and specificity, showing ownership through active voice, but exhibits cautious hedging and some evasion on strategic and margin-related questions.

Hedging
0.35
Confidence
0.65
Specificity
0.55
Active Voice
0.70
Prepared vs Q&A Gap
-0.20
Question Avoidance
5 (high)
Avoided Topics
explicit timeline for turnaround quantitative margin trajectory specific new foundry customers detailed competitive positioning in AI internal versus external wafer manufacturing mix beyond general statements
Key Language Changes
  • Repeated emphasis on the lack of quick fixes and need for cultural transformation
  • Strong focus on organizational flattening and accountability
  • New investor disclosures about non-core asset monetization
  • More explicit statements about cost reductions and operational efficiency
  • Acknowledgment of macroeconomic uncertainty and tariff impacts more frequently than usual
Track Record (1/2 correct) ▾

Direction History

1/2 correct at 5 days
2026-03-20 bearish -1.7%
2026-03-16 bullish -3.8%
bearish for 4d | event: +9.8% | 15 signals · latest 14h ago

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