MSTR Earnings Preview

Our Call

bearish · medium Full prediction →

MSTR likely to miss again; insider selling + miss history outweigh low priced-in risk

Expected move: 7–15% from event-day close

Full thesis

MSTR has missed 3 of 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of -3,656.5%, and insiders have sold $2M in 90 days with zero buys. While the sell-the-news probability is moderate (40%) and priced-in risk is low (0.20), the stock's consistent miss pattern and heavy insider selling suggest another disappointment is likely. The stock is down 71.78% from its 52-week high and trading below both MA20 and MA50, indicating structural weakness that a miss would exacerbate.

MSTR Earnings

Thursday, Apr 30 2026

EPS Estimate

$-27.33

$-27.33 – $-27.33

Revenue Estimate

$127M

Track Record

1/4 beats

Current Price

$137.41

Our Position

bearish

Strategy boosts Bitcoin holdings with $1B buy

est. revisions falling (-139.1pp / 30d)

This massive Bitcoin accumulation signals Strategy's aggressive crypto commitment despite volatility and heightens exposure to Bitcoin price fluctuations, which dominate the firm's financial outlook and stock performance. Analyst ratings remain mixed but generally favorable with recent Buy reiterations.

Watch: Next quarterly earnings will reveal if Strategy can sustain financial performance amid heavy Bitcoin price volatility and insider selling pressure.

Data Signal Summary

2 bullish

2 bearish

Estimates down -136% Insider selling cluster Put/call 0.7 (bullish skew) Price uptrend

Key Context

Analyst Consensus

mixed

Insider Activity

selling

Price Trend

uptrend

1-Month Return

-1.6%

From 52w High

-69.9%

Est. Revisions (30d)

-135.5% 0up/0dn

Analyst Target (mean)

$368 $175–$705 +168%

Options P/C Ratio

0.69 3C/10P unusual

Est. Dispersion

0% 1 analysts

Insider Cluster

strong sell

Fund Convergence

strong Citadel, Renaissance, Bridgewater, D.E. Shaw

Recent Activity

insider trades 22 transactions

Exercise · PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL (Director) ·1,900 shares ·$35,443

Sell · KANG ANDREW (Chief Financial Officer) ·916 shares ·$125,725

Sell · MONTGOMERY JEANINE J. (Officer) ·260 shares ·$35,686

Other · MONTGOMERY JEANINE J. (Officer) ·787 shares

Other · LE PHONG QUOC (Chief Executive Officer) ·4,473 shares

17 more

Other · KANG ANDREW ·2,071 shr

Other · KANG ANDREW ·5,330 shr

Sell · PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL ·700 shr ·$96,159

Exercise · PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL ·700 shr ·$13,058

Sell · PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL ·700 shr ·$89,628

Sell · PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL ·1,400 shr ·$172,653

Exercise · PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL ·1,400 shr ·$26,116

Sell · PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL ·2,100 shr ·$270,654

Exercise · PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL ·2,100 shr ·$39,173

Sell · PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL ·1,900 shr ·$248,105

Sell · LE PHONG QUOC ·2,034 shr ·$279,175

Sell · MONTGOMERY JEANINE J. ·470 shr ·$65,016

Other · MONTGOMERY JEANINE J. ·1,560 shr

Sell · LE PHONG QUOC ·3,299 shr ·$456,362

Sell · KANG ANDREW ·2,373 shr ·$328,266

Sell · Montgomery Jeanine ·250 shr ·$34,432

Exercise · Montgomery Jeanine ·1,560 shr

analyst ratings 3 ratings

TD Cowen →Buy 4d ago

BTIG →Buy 7d ago

Citigroup →Buy 27d ago

material events

On March 23, 2026, Strategy Inc. added Moelis Company LLC, A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners, and StoneX Financial Inc. as sales agents under their exis... SEC↗ 23d ago

Strategy Inc updated on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program sales for preferred and common stock from March 9 to March 15, 2026, reporting sales ... SEC↗ 30d ago

Strategy Inc updated its at-the-market (ATM) offering program sales for the week of March 2 to March 8, 2026, disclosing the shares sold, notional val... SEC↗ 37d ago

filing changes

MEDIUM New items added: Reference to fluctuations in expenses added.

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