BA Earnings Preview

Our Call

bearish · medium Full prediction →

BA earnings miss likely; deteriorating surprise momentum and analyst downgrades

Expected move: 4–8% from event-day close

Full thesis

Boeing faces a high-probability earnings miss or disappointing beat on 2026-04-22. Estimate revisions have collapsed 38.1% with analyst revisions uniformly negative (0up/4down), while surprise momentum is decelerating sharply (+2448% Q-4 → +62.4% Q-1 → +2.4% Q-2 → -214% Q-3 miss). Insiders are net selling ($4.98M vs $0.6M buy), and the stock is down 8.4% in 1m and 17.42% from 52w high. Despite a 75% historical beat rate, the deteriorating trend suggests analysts have caught up to reality, and the next beat (if it occurs) will likely fail to surprise. The 35% sell-the-news probability indicates the market has already priced in downside, leaving limited upside cushion.

BA Earnings

Wednesday, Apr 22 2026

EPS Estimate

$-0.63

$-1.07 – $0.22

Revenue Estimate

$22.1B

Track Record

3/4 beats

Current Price

$223.77

Our Position

bullish · high

Boeing Eyes $250 Target on Backlog, Defense Deals

est. revisions falling (-49.1pp / 30d)

These long-term defense contracts and massive backlog stabilize Boeing's growth, offsetting production setbacks and supporting eventual free cash flow recovery and multiple expansion potential.

Watch: April 22 earnings and FAA updates will test if cost pressures ease, production delays resolve, and cash flow growth sustains.