MSTR Strategy Inc

bearish · high conviction 3/5 shifts correct ↓ $159.09 +7.45 (+4.9%)
Mkt Cap $56B 52wk $104.17 - $457.22 Earnings missing Updated Saturday
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
MEDIUM
New items added

Current filing includes 'Our operating results, revenues, and expenses may fluctuate significantly, which could have an adverse effect on the market price of our securities', while prior filing only mentioned operating results and revenues. This adds an explicit focus on expenses fluctuations as a risk.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-19
Material Events (8-K)
8-K
Update on ATM stock offering sales Bullish Approximately $2.54 billion in total net proceeds

Strategy Inc updated on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program sales from April 13 to April 19, 2026. The company sold 21,795,389 shares of Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock f...

Filed 2026-04-20
8-K
ATM Offering Update $1.0013 billion

Strategy Inc updated its at-the-market offering program sales for the period April 6 to April 12, 2026. The company sold 10,028,363 shares of Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (...

Filed 2026-04-13 · Strategy Inc
8-K
Update on at-the-market offering program sales $299.3 million total net proceeds

Strategy Inc updated its at-the-market offering program sales as of April 6, 2026. Key activity includes sales of 2,275,972 shares of Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (STRC) wi...

Filed 2026-04-06 · Strategy Inc
8-K
Dividend Announcement $0.958333333 per share

Strategy Inc announced it will maintain the regular dividend rate on its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock at 11.50% per annum effective from April 1, 2026. The board also decla...

Filed 2026-04-01 · Strategy Inc Board of Directors
Insider selling: $4,980,494 sold by 2 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions: +150.2% (1 up, 0 down in 30d)
Factor Model (net +3.2)

Factor Model

net +3.2 6.6 / 10
Est. Revisions
+1.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.0
Analyst Rev.
+1.0
Narrative Gap
+0.5
Filing Risk
+1.0

MicroStrategy's $15B Preferred Stock Raises Risks

Watch: Monitor MicroStrategy's next Bitcoin buy/sell moves and preferred stock dividend vote outcomes by June as critical confidence gauges.

MicroStrategy holds $15 billion in preferred stock with $1.5-1.7 billion annual dividend obligations, creating heavy financial strain. It raised $2 billion in equity to retire convertible bonds, cutting debt from $8.2 billion to $6.7 billion and repurchasing Bitcoin to total 843,738 BTC. Cash dropped to $871 million with only 6.1 months of dividend coverage left. Market bets on a Bitcoin sale by year-end 2026 rose from 71% to 88%.

The unsustainable dividend burden amid depressed Bitcoin prices pressures MicroStrategy's liquidity and equity valuation, increasing risks of asset sales and share price compression.

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Evidence

Fundamentals & Data ▾
Strategy Inc Technology · Software - Application
Mkt Cap
$56B
Beta
3.60
52w Range
$104.17 - $457.22
Short Interest
39.5M 11.96%
Days to Cover
2.1 +6%
Technicals mixed
vs 20d MA
-8.3%
vs 50d MA
+2.1%
from 52w Hi
-59.2%
Vol (20d)
62%
1w return
-3.5%
1m return
+0.6%
3m return
+22.9%
Vol ratio
0.9x
Insiders
selling 0B / 12S
Analysts
mixed
Earnings
missing 1B / 3M
EPS Estimate
$26.20 +150.2% 30d 1up / 0dn
Est. Dispersion
158% 4 analysts
Analyst Target
$377 $212 - $645
Options P/C
0.72 6C / 14P unusual
Insider Cluster
strong sell 0B / 2S
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Renaissance, Bridgewater, D.E. Shaw
Financials
Revenue
$124M +12% YoY
FCF
$-7.2B
Gross Margin
67%
Op Margin
-12%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $3.3B
Renaissance $231M
Bridgewater $2M
D.E. Shaw $1M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 13
net selling · $4,980,494 sold
2 insiders · 13 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · sell · $676,700
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · exercise · $23,318
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · sell · $206,625
KANG ANDREW · sell · $927,865
KANG ANDREW · sell · $927,865
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · exercise · $97,934
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · sell · $875,088
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · sell · $286,280
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · exercise · $27,981
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · sell · $713,571
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · exercise · $69,952
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · sell · $366,500
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · exercise · $74,616
material event 35

Strategy Inc updated on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program sales from April 13 to April 19, 2026. The company sold 21,795,389 shares of Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock for approximately $2.18 billion in notional value, yielding net proceeds of about $2.18 billion. Additionally, it sold 2,165,000 shares of Class A Common Stock with net proceeds of around $366 million. There were no sales reported for 10.00% Series A Perpetual Strife, 8.00% Series A Perpetual Strike, or 10.00% Series A Perpetual Stride Preferred Stock during this period. Substantial availability for issuance remains for all securities. No individuals were specifically mentioned; the event reflects a capital raise through stock sales. This is generally neutral to moderately bullish as it indicates strong market demand for the preferred stock. SEC↗

Strategy Inc updated its at-the-market offering program sales for the period April 6 to April 12, 2026. The company sold 10,028,363 shares of Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (STRC) generating approximately $1.0013 billion in net proceeds. No sales of Series A Perpetual Strife, Strike, or Stride Preferred Stocks or Class A Common Stock were reported during this period. The available shares for issuance and sale remain substantial across all securities. This update involves Strategy Inc and details its share issuance under the ATM program without indicating any new agreements or departures. SEC↗

Strategy Inc updated its at-the-market offering program sales as of April 6, 2026. Key activity includes sales of 2,275,972 shares of Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock (STRC) with notional value of $227.6 million and net proceeds of $227.3 million, and sales of 582,550 shares of Class A Common Stock (MSTR) with net proceeds of $72.0 million. Other preferred stock series had no sales during the reported period. Significant amounts remain available for issuance across the securities. SEC↗

Strategy Inc announced it will maintain the regular dividend rate on its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual Stretch Preferred Stock at 11.50% per annum effective from April 1, 2026. The board also declared a cash dividend of $0.958333333 per share payable on April 30, 2026, to stockholders of record as of April 15, 2026. The dividend is expected to be treated as a non-taxable return of capital. SEC↗

Strategy Inc did not sell any shares under its at-the-market offering program and did not purchase any bitcoin during March 23-29, 2026. The company holds approximately 762,099 bitcoins acquired at a total cost of $57.69 billion. A class action lawsuit has been filed by David Dodge against Strategy and its board regarding shareholder rights. SEC↗

30 more
On March 23, 2026, Strategy Inc. added Moelis Company LLC, A.G.P./Alliance Globa
Strategy Inc updated on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program sales for prefe
Strategy Inc updated its at-the-market (ATM) offering program sales for the week
Strategy Inc provided an update on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program cove
Strategy Inc updated on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program. Between Februa
Strategy Inc provided an update on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program sale
Strategy Inc provided an update on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program for
Strategy Inc issued a press release announcing financial results for the quarter
Strategy Inc updated on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program sales between J
Strategy Inc provided an update on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program betw
Strategy Inc provided an update on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program for
Strategy Inc provided an update on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program for
Strategy Inc provided an update on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program for
Strategy Inc increased the annual dividend rate on its Variable Rate Series A Pe
Strategy Inc provided an update on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program. Fro
Strategy Inc updated its at-the-market (ATM) offering program with the sale of 4
Strategy Inc provided an update on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program sale
Strategy Inc updated on its ATM (at-the-market) offering program between Dec 1-7
Strategy Inc established a US dollar reserve of $1.44 billion to support dividen
Strategy Inc provided an update on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program sale
Strategy Inc provided an update on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program, rep
Strategy Inc entered into an underwriting agreement for an underwritten offering
On November 4, 2025, Strategy Inc consolidated its existing at-the-market offeri
Strategy Inc provided updates on its at-the-market (ATM) offering programs from
Strategy Inc announced an increase in the dividend rate on its Variable Rate Ser
Strategy Inc provided updates on its at-the-market (ATM) offering programs for p
Strategy Inc updated its at-the-market (ATM) offering programs for various serie
Strategy Inc updated its at-the-market (ATM) offering programs and bitcoin holdi
The filing does not provide specific details on departures or compensatory arran
Strategy Inc increased the dividend rate on its Variable Rate Series A Perpetual
filing change 1
MEDIUM New items added: Reference to fluctuations in expenses added.
full analysis

Current filing includes 'Our operating results, revenues, and expenses may fluctuate significantly, which could have an adverse effect on the market price of our securities', while prior filing only mentioned operating results and revenues. This adds an explicit focus on expenses fluctuations as a risk.

Track Record (3/5 correct) ▾

Direction History

3/5 correct at 5 days
2026-05-19 bearish -6.3%
2026-05-14 bullish -11.8%
2026-05-11 bearish -15.0%
2026-04-18 bearish +2.7%
2026-03-20 bearish -7.1%
15 signals · latest 20h ago

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