MSTR Strategy Inc

bearish track record → $137.41 +5.05 (+3.8%) +3.8% since call
Mkt Cap $45B 52wk $104.17 - $457.22 Earnings missing 15h ago
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
MEDIUM
New items added

Current filing includes 'Our operating results, revenues, and expenses may fluctuate significantly, which could have an adverse effect on the market price of our securities', while prior filing only mentioned operating results and revenues. This adds an explicit focus on expenses fluctuations as a risk.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-19
Material Events (8-K)
8-K
Addition of sales agents under Omnibus Sales Agreement

On March 23, 2026, Strategy Inc. added Moelis Company LLC, A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners, and StoneX Financial Inc. as sales agents under their existing Omnibus Sales Agreement with various other fi...

Filed 2026-03-23 · Moelis Company LLC, A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners
8-K
At-the-market offering update

Strategy Inc updated on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program sales for preferred and common stock from March 9 to March 15, 2026, reporting sales of 11,818,467 shares of Variable Rate Series A Per...

Filed 2026-03-16
8-K
At-the-market offering update

Strategy Inc updated its at-the-market (ATM) offering program sales for the week of March 2 to March 8, 2026, disclosing the shares sold, notional value, and net proceeds from several classes of prefe...

Filed 2026-03-09
8-K
At-the-market offering update

Strategy Inc provided an update on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program covering the period from February 23, 2026, to March 1, 2026. They sold 71,590 shares of Variable Rate Series A Perpetual St...

Filed 2026-03-02 · Strategy Inc
Insider selling: $2,201,862 sold by 5 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions: -135.5%
Next event: Upcoming event (est. 7–15% move)

Factor Model

net -2.0 4.6 / 10
Est. Revisions
-1.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
-0.1
Analyst Rev.
+0.0
Narrative Gap
+0.0
Filing Risk
+1.0

Strategy boosts Bitcoin holdings with $1B buy

Watch: Next quarterly earnings will reveal if Strategy can sustain financial performance amid heavy Bitcoin price volatility and insider selling pressure.

Full analysis

Strategy Inc purchased about 13,927 bitcoin at an average price of $71,902 from April 6 to 12, 2026, increasing total holdings to 780,897 BTC worth roughly $59-60 billion. The company funded this $1 billion acquisition by selling 10 million shares of preferred stock, leveraging its $21.64 billion stretch preferred stock capacity and $27.10 billion common stock capacity. Bitcoin trades near $68,536, down from its $126,000 peak in October 2025, but Strategy controls 76% of Bitcoin held by publicly listed companies.

This massive Bitcoin accumulation signals Strategy's aggressive crypto commitment despite volatility and heightens exposure to Bitcoin price fluctuations, which dominate the firm's financial outlook and stock performance. Analyst ratings remain mixed but generally favorable with recent Buy reiterations.

Position history (4d) bull bear neutral
2026-03-17 2026-04-01
All 4 daily readings
2026-04-01 bearish · high 4sig
2026-03-31 bearish · high 2sig
2026-03-24 bearish · high 3sig
2026-03-17 bullish · high 4sig
$132.36 2026-04-14

Event Predictions

bearish Q1 2026 earnings on April 30, 2026
16d

MSTR likely to miss again; insider selling + miss history outweigh low priced-in risk

+3.8% $132.36 → $137.41
Thesis

MSTR has missed 3 of 4 recent quarters with an average surprise of -3,656.5%, and insiders have sold $2M in 90 days with zero buys. While the sell-the-news probability is moderate (40%) and priced-in risk is low (0.20), the stock's consistent miss pattern and heavy insider selling suggest another disappointment is likely. The stock is down 71.78% from its 52-week high and trading below both MA20 and MA50, indicating structural weakness that a miss would exacerbate.

Compare

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Evidence

Fundamentals & Data ▾
Strategy Inc Technology · Software - Application
Mkt Cap
$45B
Beta
3.56
52w Range
$104.17 - $457.22
Short Interest
32.4M 10.14%
Days to Cover
1.7 -14%
Technicals uptrend
vs 20d MA
+4.4%
vs 50d MA
+3.7%
from 52w Hi
-69.9%
Vol (20d)
53%
1w return
+11.1%
1m return
-1.6%
3m return
-15.3%
Vol ratio
0.9x
Insiders
selling 0B / 11S
Analysts
mixed
Earnings
missing 1B / 3M
EPS Estimate
$-35.56 -135.5% 30d 0up / 0dn
Est. Dispersion
0% 1 analysts
Analyst Target
$368 $175 - $705
Options P/C
0.69 3C / 10P unusual
Insider Cluster
strong sell 1B / 7S
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Renaissance, Bridgewater, D.E. Shaw
Financials
Revenue
$123M +2% YoY
FCF
$-3.1B
Gross Margin
66%
Op Margin
-8%
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $3.3B
Renaissance $137M
Bridgewater $2M
D.E. Shaw $1M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 22
net selling · $2,201,862 sold
5 insiders · 22 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · exercise · $35,443
KANG ANDREW · sell · $125,725
MONTGOMERY JEANINE J. · sell · $35,686
MONTGOMERY JEANINE J. · other
LE PHONG QUOC · other
KANG ANDREW · other
KANG ANDREW · other
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · sell · $96,159
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · exercise · $13,058
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · sell · $89,628
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · sell · $172,653
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · exercise · $26,116
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · sell · $270,654
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · exercise · $39,173
PATTEN JARROD MICHAEL · sell · $248,105
LE PHONG QUOC · sell · $279,175
MONTGOMERY JEANINE J. · sell · $65,016
MONTGOMERY JEANINE J. · other
LE PHONG QUOC · sell · $456,362
KANG ANDREW · sell · $328,266
Montgomery Jeanine · sell · $34,432
Montgomery Jeanine · exercise
material event 4
On March 23, 2026, Strategy Inc. added Moelis Company LLC, A.G.P./Alliance Global Partners, and StoneX Financial Inc. as... SEC↗
Strategy Inc updated on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program sales for preferred and common stock from March 9 to Ma... SEC↗
Strategy Inc updated its at-the-market (ATM) offering program sales for the week of March 2 to March 8, 2026, disclosing... SEC↗
Strategy Inc provided an update on its at-the-market (ATM) offering program covering the period from February 23, 2026, ... SEC↗
filing change 1
MEDIUM New items added: Reference to fluctuations in expenses added.
full analysis

Current filing includes 'Our operating results, revenues, and expenses may fluctuate significantly, which could have an adverse effect on the market price of our securities', while prior filing only mentioned operating results and revenues. This adds an explicit focus on expenses fluctuations as a risk.

Track Record (1/1 correct) ▾

Direction History

1/1 correct at 5 days
2026-03-20 bearish -7.1%
Transcript analysis coming soon
bearish for 3d | event: +3.8% | 15 signals · latest 15h ago

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