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BA

bearish high
BA Earnings · 2026-04-22 · earnings

BA faces earnings miss risk as estimates slashed 53.5%

Boeing's Q1 earnings face significant miss risk despite a 75% historical beat rate. Estimates have been revised down 53.5% with zero bullish analyst revisions in 30 days, and surprise magnitude is decelerating (from +2448% to +62.4%), indicating analysts are catching up to deteriorating fundamentals. The stock is down 13.4% in 1m and trading at a 80.5 P/E, leaving limited margin for error. While sell-the-news probability is low (35%), the bearish case is anchored in fundamental deterioration, not just profit-taking.

Price Convergence

Baseline
$199.03
2026-04-01
Est. move
6–10%
bearish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #99
Created
Apr 1, 12:46

Agent Rubric Scores

Price Momentum
-2
Insider Activity
-1
Signal Consensus
-1
Analyst Sentiment
-2
Valuation Context
-1
Past Event Reactions
+1
Total -6

Agent Research Trace

I'll research BA systematically ahead of the 2026-04-22 earnings date. Let me gather the necessary data.
compute_event_features {"ticker": "BA"}
query_peer_reactions {"ticker": "BA"}
query_factor_model {"ticker": "BA"}
query_price_history {"ticker": "BA"}
query_structured_data {"ticker": "BA"}
query_entity_signals {"ticker": "BA"}
query_past_predictions {"ticker": "BA"}
Edge analysis (compute_event_features) 
=== PRICE MOMENTUM ===
Returns: 1w 1.33%, 1m -13.37%, 3m -8.39%
From 52w high: -21.07%
Volatility (20d): 40.8%

=== HISTORICAL EARNINGS REACTIONS ===
Last 4 quarters: 3/4 beats (75% beat rate)
  Q-1: BEAT (surprise: +62.4%)
  Q-2: BEAT (surprise: +2.4%)
  Q-3: MISS (surprise: -214.4%)
  Q-4: BEAT (surprise: +2448.0%)

=== INSIDER ACTIVITY ===
90-day: 0 buys, 8 sells (net ratio: 0.00, SELLING)
Total value: $6,358,277

=== SHORT INTEREST ===
No short interest data.

=== SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY (computed) ===
Base rate: 40% of earnings beats sell off
  -10% (down -13% in 1m, low expectations)
  +5% (heavy insider selling)
ESTIMATED SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY: 35%
Risk level: LOW

=== PRICED-IN RISK SCORE ===
Priced-in risk: 0.25 (MODERATE)
  - Consistent beats (75%)
  - Heavy insider selling

=== EDGE ANALYSIS ===
Surprise momentum: DECELERATING (+2448.0% → +62.4%, avg +574.6%)
  Surprises shrinking — analysts catching up, miss risk increasing
Estimate drift: DOWN 2.6% ($-1.27 → $-1.30)
Insider $ flow: NET SELLING ($6,358,277 sell / $0 buy)
  Insiders cashing out — may know something or simply diversifying
Market-adjusted: underperforming SPY by 13.2% (1w)
query_peer_reactions result 
=== PEER REACTIONS (Aerospace & Defense) ===
  No recent peer earnings data.
query_factor_model result 
=== FACTOR MODEL (quantitative baseline) ===
estimate_revisions: -0.998 — Estimates revised down 53.5% (raw: -53.5)
insider_activity: +0.000 — Single insider selling $6,358,277 (likely routine/10b5-1) (raw: 0.0)
price_momentum: -0.806 — DOWN 13.4% in 1m — negative momentum (raw: -13.37)
analyst_revi
query_price_history result 
Close: $199.03 (2026-03-31)
Returns: 1w 1.33%, 1m -13.37%, 3m -8.39%
Volatility (20d): 40.8%
MA20: $207.31 (-3.99%), MA50: $225.86 (-11.88%)
52w range: $179.12 - $252.15 (-21.07% from high)
Trend: downtrend
query_structured_data result 
Insiders (90d): 0 buys, 8 sells — net selling
  award by ?: undisclosed on 2026-03-15T06:17:15.077484+00:00
  award by ?: undisclosed on 2026-03-15T06:17:15.077484+00:00
  award by ?: undisclosed on 2026-03-15T06:17:15.077484+00:00
Analysts (30d): 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades — mixed
  Tigress Financial
query_entity_signals result 
No signals for BA in last 72 hours.
query_past_predictions result 
Overall accuracy: 0/0 (n/a)
No scored predictions for BA yet.
Now let me analyze this data systematically. ## DATA SUMMARY **Price Momentum:** - Down 13.4% in 1m, down 8.4% in 3m - 21% below 52w high ($199 vs $252) - Volatility elevated at 40.8% - Trend: downtrend - 1w return: +1.33% (slight bounce) **Earnings History:** - 75% beat rate (3/4 beats) - Q-1: +62.4% surprise - Q-2: +2.4% surprise - Q-3: MISS (-214.4% surprise) - Q-4: +2448% surprise (massive) - **Key insight:** Surprise magnitude DECELERATING (from +2448% → +62.4%), suggesting analysts are ...
submit_prediction {"catalyst": "Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-22", "headline": "BA faces earnings miss risk as estimates slashed 53.5%", "rubric_scores": {"analyst_sentiment": -2, "insider_activity": -1, "past_event_reactions": 1, "price_momentum": -2, "signal_consensus": -1, "valuation_context": -1}, "thesis": "Boeing\u0027s Q1 earnings face significant miss risk despite a 75% historical beat rate. Estimates have been revised down 53.5% with zero bullish analyst revisions in 30 days, and surprise magnitude is decelerating (from +2448% to +62.4%), indicating analysts are catching up to deteriorating fundamentals. The stock is down 13.4% in 1m and trading at a 80.5 P/E, leaving limited margin for error. While sell-the-news probability is low (35%), the bearish case is anchored in fundamental deterioration, not just profit-taking."}

Refinement Chain (4 predictions)

#107 ▼ BA faces earnings miss risk as estimates slashed 53.5% invalidated view
#109 ▼ BA earnings miss likely; deteriorating surprise momentum and... invalidated view
#117 ▼ BA earnings miss likely; deteriorating surprise momentum and... active view
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Price Trajectory

Mar 30
$189.21
Mar 31
$199.03
Apr 1
$207.32
Apr 2
$208.22
Apr 6
$212.30
Apr 7
$210.00
Apr 8
$217.80
Apr 9
$220.06
Apr 10
$217.63
Apr 13
$222.14
Apr 14
$223.77

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