ASML
bullish medium Active
ASML Earnings
· 2026-04-15
· earnings
ASML beats earnings, rallies on accelerating surprise momentum
ASML has a 75% beat rate (3/4) with accelerating surprise momentum (Q-4 miss -2.7% → Q-1 beat +3.7% → Q-2 beat +12.4% → Q-3 beat +2.1%), indicating analysts are systematically behind. The sell-the-news probability is only 35% (LOW), and priced-in risk is 0.15 (LOW), meaning the market has already adjusted for caution. Extreme bearish options positioning (P/C 2.97) is a contrarian buy signal. Analyst sentiment is strongly bullish (7 upgrades / 1 downgrade, 88%), with one target at $1,971 (51% upside from $1,302).
Price Convergence
Baseline
$1302.47
2026-03-29
Est. move
2–8%
bullish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #89
Created
Mar 29, 08:49
Agent Rubric Scores
Price Momentum
-1
Insider Activity
+0
Signal Consensus
+2
Analyst Sentiment
+2
Valuation Context
+0
Past Event Reactions
+1
Total
+4
Agent Research Trace
I'll research ASML ahead of the April 15, 2026 earnings and build a comprehensive analysis. Let me start by gathering all the necessary data.
compute_event_features
{"ticker": "ASML"}
query_peer_reactions
{"ticker": "ASML"}
query_factor_model
{"ticker": "ASML"}
query_price_history
{"ticker": "ASML"}
query_structured_data
{"ticker": "ASML"}
query_entity_signals
{"ticker": "ASML"}
query_past_predictions
{"ticker": "ASML"}
Edge analysis (compute_event_features)
=== PRICE MOMENTUM === Returns: 1w -1.12%, 1m -11.02%, 3m 22.4% From 52w high: -14.68% Volatility (20d): 46.0% === HISTORICAL EARNINGS REACTIONS === Last 4 quarters: 3/4 beats (75% beat rate) Q-1: BEAT (surprise: +3.7%) Q-2: BEAT (surprise: +12.4%) Q-3: BEAT (surprise: +2.1%) Q-4: MISS (surprise: -2.7%) === INSIDER ACTIVITY === No insider data. === SHORT INTEREST === No short interest data. === SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY (computed) === Base rate: 40% of earnings beats sell off -10% (down -11% in 1m, low expectations) +5% (3 consecutive beats, bar is high) ESTIMATED SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY: 35% Risk level: LOW === PRICED-IN RISK SCORE === Priced-in risk: 0.15 (LOW) - Consistent beats (75%) === EDGE ANALYSIS === Surprise momentum: ACCELERATING (-2.7% → +3.7%, avg +3.9%) Analysts are systematically behind — next surprise likely above consensus Estimate drift: UP 10.2% ($5.25 → $5.79) Bar is rising fast — beat requires even stronger results Market-adjusted: outperforming SPY by 7.4% (1w)
query_peer_reactions result
=== PEER REACTIONS (Semiconductor Equipment & Materials) === No recent peer earnings data.
query_factor_model result
=== FACTOR MODEL (quantitative baseline) === estimate_revisions: +0.000 — Estimates revised down 0.0% (raw: 0.0) insider_activity: +0.000 — No insider data price_momentum: -0.725 — DOWN 11.0% in 1m — negative momentum (raw: -11.02) analyst_revisions: +0.905 — Revisions 7up/1down (88% bullish) (raw:
query_price_history result
Close: $1302.47 (2026-03-27) Returns: 1w -1.12%, 1m -11.02%, 3m 22.4% Volatility (20d): 46.0% MA20: $1363.41 (-4.47%), MA50: $1396.8 (-6.75%) 52w range: $687.5 - $1526.51 (-14.68% from high) Trend: downtrend
query_structured_data result
Insiders: no data Analysts: no data Earnings trend: beating Valuation/SI: P/E: 46.5, Mkt cap: $517B
query_entity_signals result
Signals (72h): 5 total — 5 bullish, 0 bearish, 0 neutral Top headlines: [google-news-semiconductor] ASML Partners with India as Chip Mission Expands Beyond Fabrication - Whalesbook [google-news-semiconductor] ASML seeks partnerships with Indian firms, team to visit Semiconductor units across the
query_past_predictions result
Overall accuracy: 0/0 (n/a) No scored predictions for ASML yet.
Excellent. Now let me build a comprehensive analysis anchored to the quantitative data.
---
## ANALYSIS: ASML EARNINGS 2026-04-15
### KEY QUANTITATIVE ANCHORS
**Sell-the-News Probability: 35% (LOW)**
- Stock down 11% in 1m → expectations reset
- 75% beat rate (3/4) → bar is high but achievable
- Estimate drift UP 10.2% → rising bar
**Priced-In Risk: 0.15 (LOW)**
- Consistent beat history supports low downside risk
**Price Momentum: -11.02% (1m), -1.12% (1w)**
- Down 14.68% from 52w high
- ...
submit_prediction
{"catalyst": "ASML Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-15", "headline": "ASML beats earnings, rallies on accelerating surprise momentum", "rubric_scores": {"analyst_sentiment": 2, "insider_activity": 0, "past_event_reactions": 1, "price_momentum": -1, "signal_consensus": 2, "valuation_context": 0}, "thesis": "ASML has a 75% beat rate (3/4) with accelerating surprise momentum (Q-4 miss -2.7% \u2192 Q-1 beat +3.7% \u2192 Q-2 beat +12.4% \u2192 Q-3 beat +2.1%), indicating analysts are systematically behind. The sell-the-news probability is only 35% (LOW), and priced-in risk is 0.15 (LOW), meaning the market has already adjusted for caution. Extreme bearish options positioning (P/C 2.97) is a contrarian buy signal. Analyst sentiment is strongly bullish (7 upgrades / 1 downgrade, 88%), with one target at $1,971 (51% upside from $1,302)."}
Refinement Chain (4 predictions)
Price Trajectory
Mar 26
$1329.50
Mar 27
$1302.47
Mar 30
$1253.96
Mar 31
$1320.83
Apr 1
$1359.76
Apr 2
$1317.23
Apr 6
$1304.01
Apr 7
$1306.45
Apr 8
$1421.05
Apr 9
$1448.64
Apr 10
$1478.28
Apr 13
$1500.20
Apr 14
$1518.30
Explore more