ASML
bearish medium
ASML Earnings
· 2026-04-15
· earnings
ASML earnings miss likely as estimate bar rises 40%
ASML faces a deteriorating surprise trend (last two quarters: +3.7% beat, -2.7% miss) while analyst estimates have drifted up 40.4% ($5.37 → $7.55), raising the bar for a beat. With momentum down 6.8% in 1m and 67% of recent signals bearish, the market is pricing in optimism that fundamentals may not support. At 46.5x P/E, even a beat may not drive upside if growth doesn't justify the premium valuation.
Price Convergence
Baseline
$1399.42
2026-03-25
Est. move
2–8%
bearish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #82
Created
Mar 25, 10:48
Agent Rubric Scores
Price Momentum
-2
Insider Activity
+0
Signal Consensus
-2
Analyst Sentiment
+0
Valuation Context
-1
Past Event Reactions
+1
Total
-4
Agent Research Trace
I'll research ASML ahead of the April 15, 2026 earnings and build a comprehensive analysis. Let me start by gathering the key data.
compute_event_features
{"ticker": "ASML"}
query_peer_reactions
{"ticker": "ASML"}
query_price_history
{"ticker": "ASML"}
query_structured_data
{"ticker": "ASML"}
query_entity_signals
{"ticker": "ASML"}
query_past_predictions
{"ticker": "ASML"}
Edge analysis (compute_event_features)
=== PRICE MOMENTUM === Returns: 1w -0.43%, 1m -6.8%, 3m 32.34% From 52w high: -10.28% Volatility (20d): 45.2% === HISTORICAL EARNINGS REACTIONS === Last 4 quarters: 3/4 beats (75% beat rate) Q-1: MISS (surprise: -2.7%) Q-2: BEAT (surprise: +2.1%) Q-3: BEAT (surprise: +12.4%) Q-4: BEAT (surprise: +3.7%) === INSIDER ACTIVITY === No insider data. === SHORT INTEREST === No short interest data. === SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY (computed) === Base rate: 40% of earnings beats sell off -5% (down -7% in 1m, modest reset) ESTIMATED SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY: 35% Risk level: LOW === PRICED-IN RISK SCORE === Priced-in risk: 0.15 (LOW) - Consistent beats (75%) === EDGE ANALYSIS === Surprise momentum: DECELERATING (+3.7% → -2.7%, avg +3.9%) Surprises shrinking — analysts catching up, miss risk increasing Estimate drift: UP 40.4% ($5.37 → $7.55) Bar is rising fast — beat requires even stronger results
query_peer_reactions result
=== PEER REACTIONS (Semiconductor Equipment & Materials) === No recent peer earnings data.
query_price_history result
Close: $1369.62 (2026-03-23) Returns: 1w -0.43%, 1m -6.8%, 3m 32.34% Volatility (20d): 45.2% MA20: $1389.08 (-1.4%), MA50: $1389.94 (-1.46%) 52w range: $687.5 - $1526.51 (-10.28% from high) Trend: downtrend
query_structured_data result
Insiders: no data Analysts: no data Earnings trend: beating Valuation/SI: P/E: 46.5, Mkt cap: $517B
query_entity_signals result
Signals (72h): 12 total — 4 bullish, 8 bearish, 0 neutral Top headlines: [?] Michael T. McCaul (R-TX) sell $1K-$15K of ASML [?] Gil Cisneros (D-CA) buy $1K-$15K of ASML [?] Michael T. McCaul (R-TX) sell $1K-$15K of ASML
query_past_predictions result
Overall accuracy: 0/0 (n/a) No scored predictions for ASML yet.
Excellent. Now let me analyze this systematically.
## ANALYSIS SUMMARY
### Key Quantitative Findings:
**Price Momentum & Valuation:**
- Stock down 6.8% in 1m, down 10.28% from 52w high
- Currently in downtrend (MA20/MA50 both above price)
- Volatility elevated at 45.2%
- P/E: 46.5x (premium valuation)
- Priced-in risk: LOW (0.15)
- Sell-the-news probability: 35% (LOW)
**Earnings History:**
- 75% beat rate (3/4 recent quarters)
- BUT: Surprise magnitude DECELERATING (+12.4% → +3.7% → -2.7% mi...
submit_prediction
{"catalyst": "ASML Q1 2026 earnings on April 15, 2026", "headline": "ASML earnings miss likely as estimate bar rises 40%", "rubric_scores": {"analyst_sentiment": 0, "insider_activity": 0, "past_event_reactions": 1, "price_momentum": -2, "signal_consensus": -2, "valuation_context": -1}, "thesis": "ASML faces a deteriorating surprise trend (last two quarters: +3.7% beat, -2.7% miss) while analyst estimates have drifted up 40.4% ($5.37 \u2192 $7.55), raising the bar for a beat. With momentum down 6.8% in 1m and 67% of recent signals bearish, the market is pricing in optimism that fundamentals may not support. At 46.5x P/E, even a beat may not drive upside if growth doesn\u0027t justify the premium valuation."}
Source Signals (6)
[google-news-semiconductor]
Semiconductor industry sees wider adoption of custom AI to optimise processes - 디지털투데이
[?]
(no title)
[?]
(no title)
[?]
(no title)
[?]
(no title)
[?]
(no title)
Refinement Chain (4 predictions)
Price Trajectory
Mar 23
$1369.62
Mar 24
$1399.42
Mar 25
$1393.89
Mar 26
$1329.50
Mar 27
$1302.47
Mar 30
$1253.96
Mar 31
$1320.83
Apr 1
$1359.76
Apr 2
$1317.23
Apr 6
$1304.01
Apr 7
$1306.45
Apr 8
$1421.05
Apr 9
$1448.64
Apr 10
$1478.28
Apr 13
$1500.20
Apr 14
$1518.30
Explore more