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TSLA

TSLA

bearish high
TSLA Earnings · 2026-04-22 · earnings

TSLA likely to miss again; downside risk on earnings

Tesla has missed 3 of last 4 earnings with surprise momentum decelerating from +11% to -34.9%, signaling analysts are catching up and miss risk is rising. Heavy insider selling ($301.4M in 90d, zero buys) combined with 9 filing changes including 4 new high-materiality risk items suggests deteriorating fundamentals. At P/E 333.9 and down 26.39% from 52w high, the stock offers no margin of safety. Sell-the-news probability is low (35%) because expectations are already reset, but the earnings miss streak and operational headwinds (Texas workforce down 22%) make another miss likely.

Price Convergence

Baseline
$352.82
2026-04-06
Est. move
4–8%
bearish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #110
Created
Apr 7, 04:47

Source Signals (12)

[google-news-asts] Is SpaceX the Once‑in‑a‑Generation Investment Everyone Will Wish They Bought? - theglobeandmail.com
[yahoo-finance] Gavin Newsom Hails Apple's '50 Years Of Innovation' As Tesla, Chevron, McKesson Leave California
[benzinga] TSLA Stock Bull Run Ahead? Eric Jackson Says Signal That Preceded Tesla's Biggest Runs Has Fired Again
[yahoo-finance] Tesla Stock Keeps Falling - But 10% Lower TSLA Puts Yield 2.0% for One Month Out
[benzinga] EXCLUSIVE: Trump's Move To End EV Credit A 'Cruel Irony,' Auto Industry Expert Says As EV Sales Fall, Gas Prices Soar Past $4/Gallon Amid Iran War
[benzinga] Analyst Says Tesla Will Deliver 1.6 Million Vehicles This Year, Says Robotaxi Scale Would Be Key Driver For TSLA
[google-news-rklb] TSLA, PLTR and RKLB Forecasts – High Flying Tech Trying to Rebound - FXEmpire
[yahoo-finance] Tesla Q1 Deliveries Expected to Fall Far Short of Peak as EV Demand Cools

Refinement Chain (4 predictions)

#104 TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated invalidated view
#108 TSLA likely to miss again; downside risk on earnings invalidated view
#113 Tesla likely to miss again; downside risk outweighs reset ex... active view
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Price Trajectory

Apr 6
$352.82
Apr 7
$346.65
Apr 8
$343.25
Apr 9
$345.62
Apr 10
$348.95
Apr 13
$352.42
Apr 14
$364.20

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