TSLA
bearish high
TSLA Earnings
· 2026-04-22
· earnings
TSLA likely to miss again; downside risk on earnings
Tesla has missed 3 of last 4 earnings with surprise momentum decelerating from +11% to -34.9%, signaling analysts are catching up and miss risk is rising. Heavy insider selling ($301.4M in 90d, zero buys) combined with 9 filing changes including 4 new high-materiality risk items suggests deteriorating fundamentals. At P/E 333.9 and down 26.39% from 52w high, the stock offers no margin of safety. Sell-the-news probability is low (35%) because expectations are already reset, but the earnings miss streak and operational headwinds (Texas workforce down 22%) make another miss likely.
Price Convergence
Baseline
$360.59
2026-04-05
Est. move
5–9%
bearish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #108
Created
Apr 5, 08:46
Agent Rubric Scores
Price Momentum
-2
Insider Activity
-1
Signal Consensus
+0
Analyst Sentiment
-1
Valuation Context
-2
Past Event Reactions
-2
Total
-8
Agent Research Trace
I'll research TSLA ahead of the 2026-04-22 earnings date. Let me gather the necessary data.
compute_event_features
{"ticker": "TSLA"}
query_peer_reactions
{"ticker": "TSLA"}
query_factor_model
{"ticker": "TSLA"}
query_price_history
{"ticker": "TSLA"}
query_structured_data
{"ticker": "TSLA"}
query_entity_signals
{"ticker": "TSLA"}
query_past_predictions
{"ticker": "TSLA"}
Edge analysis (compute_event_features)
=== PRICE MOMENTUM === Returns: 1w -3.1%, 1m -11.17%, 3m -19.82% From 52w high: -26.39% Volatility (20d): 41.1% === HISTORICAL EARNINGS REACTIONS === Last 4 quarters: 1/4 beats (25% beat rate) Q-1: MISS (surprise: -34.9%) Q-2: MISS (surprise: -1.0%) Q-3: MISS (surprise: -10.5%) Q-4: BEAT (surprise: +11.0%) === INSIDER ACTIVITY === 90-day: 0 buys, 15 sells (net ratio: 0.00, SELLING) Total value: $301,390,361 === SHORT INTEREST === No short interest data. === SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY (computed) === Base rate: 40% of earnings beats sell off -10% (down -11% in 1m, low expectations) +5% (heavy insider selling) ESTIMATED SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY: 35% Risk level: LOW === PRICED-IN RISK SCORE === Priced-in risk: 0.10 (LOW) - Heavy insider selling === EDGE ANALYSIS === Surprise momentum: DECELERATING (+11.0% → -34.9%, avg -8.8%) Surprises shrinking — analysts catching up, miss risk increasing Estimate drift: UP 2.7% ($0.40 → $0.41) Insider $ flow: NET SELLING ($285,887,668 sell / $0 buy) Insiders cashing out — may know something or simply diversifying Market-adjusted: underperforming SPY by 3.5% (1w)
query_peer_reactions result
=== PEER REACTIONS (Auto Manufacturers) === No recent peer earnings data.
query_factor_model result
=== FACTOR MODEL (quantitative baseline) === estimate_revisions: -0.086 — Estimates revised down 1.3% (raw: -1.3) insider_activity: +0.000 — Single insider selling $285,887,668 (likely routine/10b5-1) (raw: 0.0) price_momentum: -0.731 — DOWN 11.2% in 1m — negative momentum (raw: -11.17) analyst_revi
query_price_history result
Close: $360.59 (2026-04-02) Returns: 1w -3.1%, 1m -11.17%, 3m -19.82% Volatility (20d): 41.1% MA20: $383.86 (-6.06%), MA50: $403.48 (-10.63%) 52w range: $293.94 - $489.88 (-26.39% from high) Trend: downtrend
query_structured_data result
Insiders (90d): 0 buys, 15 sells — net selling exercise by ?: $411,400 on 2026-04-03T18:16:42.964285+00:00 sell by ?: $9,273,888 on 2026-04-02T22:16:42.926985+00:00 sell by ?: $899,077 on 2026-03-11T18:19:58.753503+00:00 Analysts (30d): 0 upgrades, 0 downgrades — mixed Canaccord Genuity: mai
query_entity_signals result
Signals (72h): 8 total — 4 bullish, 1 bearish, 3 neutral Top headlines: [yahoo-finance] Tesla’s Texas factory workforce reportedly shrunk 22% in 2025 [yahoo-finance] Crypto Languishes As Oil Prices Soar [yahoo-finance] Eyes on AI! Wedbush Keeps $600 Tesla Stock Price Target despite Q1 Miss
query_past_predictions result
Overall accuracy: 0/0 (n/a) No scored predictions for TSLA yet.
Now let me analyze this data systematically.
## DATA SUMMARY
**Price Momentum:**
- Down 11.17% in 1m, down 19.82% in 3m, down 26.39% from 52w high
- Volatility: 41.1% (elevated)
- Trend: downtrend, trading below MA20 and MA50
- Priced-in risk: LOW (0.10)
**Earnings History:**
- 1/4 beats (25% beat rate) — consistent misses
- Last 4 quarters: MISS (-34.9%), MISS (-1.0%), MISS (-10.5%), BEAT (+11.0%)
- Surprise momentum DECELERATING — analysts catching up, miss risk increasing
**Insider Activi...
submit_prediction
{"catalyst": "TSLA Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-22", "headline": "TSLA likely to miss again; downside risk on earnings", "rubric_scores": {"analyst_sentiment": -1, "insider_activity": -1, "past_event_reactions": -2, "price_momentum": -2, "signal_consensus": 0, "valuation_context": -2}, "thesis": "Tesla has missed 3 of last 4 earnings with surprise momentum decelerating from +11% to -34.9%, signaling analysts are catching up and miss risk is rising. Heavy insider selling ($301.4M in 90d, zero buys) combined with 9 filing changes including 4 new high-materiality risk items suggests deteriorating fundamentals. At P/E 333.9 and down 26.39% from 52w high, the stock offers no margin of safety. Sell-the-news probability is low (35%) because expectations are already reset, but the earnings miss streak and operational headwinds (Texas workforce down 22%) make another miss likely."}
Source Signals (8)
[benzinga]
Tesla Rival Rivian's US Sales Decline For Fourth Consecutive Month Ahead Of R2 Launch
[benzinga]
Uber CEO Dara Khosrowshahi Hopes To Incorporate Tesla Robotaxis On Its Platform: 'It's A Great Car…'
[google-news-asts]
US Stock Market Today S&P 500 Futures Edge Lower As Traders Eye Jobs Report - simplywall.st
[yahoo-finance]
Former Tesla President says ‘higher than 50% chance’ Musk will merge Tesla with SpaceX after IPO
[benzinga]
Rocket Lab, Beyond Meat, Micron Technology And More: 5 Stocks Investors Couldn't Stop Buzzing About This Week
[yahoo-finance]
Eyes on AI! Wedbush Keeps $600 Tesla Stock Price Target despite Q1 Miss
[yahoo-finance]
Crypto Languishes As Oil Prices Soar
[yahoo-finance]
Tesla’s Texas factory workforce reportedly shrunk 22% in 2025
Refinement Chain (4 predictions)
Price Trajectory
Apr 2
$360.59
Apr 6
$352.82
Apr 7
$346.65
Apr 8
$343.25
Apr 9
$345.62
Apr 10
$348.95
Apr 13
$352.42
Apr 14
$364.20
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