TSLA

bearish high

TSLA Earnings · 2026-04-22 · earnings

TSLA likely to miss earnings; downside risk elevated

TSLA has missed 3 of last 4 earnings (75% miss rate) with decelerating surprise momentum, suggesting another miss is probable. Insiders are net selling $97.9M with zero buys, signaling lack of confidence. Valuation at 332x P/E is indefensible with minimal estimate upside (+2.7%). Signal consensus is 47% bearish vs 13% bullish, with recent bull-to-bear flips citing AI concerns. While sell-the-news probability is low (35%), this reflects expectations already reset downward (stock down 11% in 1m), not upside potential.

Price Convergence

Baseline

$360.59

2026-04-02

Est. move

6–12%

bearish

Model

agent-v1

prediction #104

Created

Apr 3, 06:46

Refinement Chain (4 predictions)

#108 ▼ TSLA likely to miss again; downside risk on earnings invalidated view

#110 ▼ TSLA likely to miss again; downside risk on earnings invalidated view

#113 ▼ Tesla likely to miss again; downside risk outweighs reset ex... active view

Share on X

Price Trajectory

Mar 30

$355.28

Mar 31

$371.75

Apr 1

$381.26

Apr 2

$360.59

Apr 6

$352.82

Apr 7

$346.65

Apr 8

$343.25

Apr 9

$345.62

Apr 10

$348.95

Apr 13

$352.42

Apr 14

$364.20

Explore more

All calls → All stocks → How it works →