Factor Model (net -0.6)
Factor Model
net -0.6 1.4 / 10Bitcoin bounces at $66K as macro headwinds persist
Watch: Monitor Fed liquidity signals and Iran tensions through April; M2 money supply growth (now 4.3% YoY) historically precedes BTC rallies by 50–70 days, but timing remains unclear given macro crosscurrents.
Bitcoin dipped below $65,000 then rebounded above $66,000 on March 29–30, marking weakness amid geopolitical tensions and broader market correction. The asset has fallen 48% from its October 2025 high of $126,000, with Ethereum breaching $2,000 support and $313 million in crypto longs liquidated in 24 hours. Crude oil rallying past $110 on Iran war uncertainty is pressuring risk assets; the Dow futures fell 283 points on March 29.
Bitcoin's breakdown below $70,000 suggests macro headwinds (geopolitical shock, equity selloff, quantum computing risk) are overwhelming near-term upside catalysts. Recovery depends on either geopolitical de-escalation or a liquidity inflection — not speculation.
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