NBIS Nebius Group N.V.

bearish 2/3 shifts correct ↓ $231.09 +4.75 (+2.1%)
Mkt Cap $59B P/E 89.2 fwd 639.7 52wk $34.72 - $233.73 Earnings mixed Updated Friday
Avoided topics on last call (2026Q1): detailed margin guidance for Q2, direct discussion of contract risk concentration
We disagree with Wall Street. Analyst consensus: bullish. Our position: bearish. See factor model below for why.
r/
Reddit bullish 9 mentions, 7d
7 bullish · 0 bearish · 2 neutral
Insider selling: $107,852,605 sold by 3 insiders (30d)
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: estimate_revisions, analyst_revisions bullish vs price_momentum, options_sentiment beari
Est. revisions: +5.4% (2 up, 1 down in 30d)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)
Factor Model (net +0.3)

Factor Model

net +0.3 2.2 / 10
Est. Revisions
+0.3
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
-1.0
Analyst Rev.
+0.6
Narrative Gap
+0.0

Nebius surges 684% revenue, new hedge fund stake

Watch: Monitor Q2 revenue and client retention to validate growth momentum versus TPU-cloud competitors.

NBIS posted Q1 revenue of $399M, up 684% YoY and 75% QoQ driven by AI segment growth to $390M. Adjusted EBITDA jumped to $130M with a 32% margin, and its AI division margin expanded to 45%. Meta committed $27B in a five-year contract. Hedge fund Situational Awareness disclosed a 5.6% stake, boosting shares above $233 in extended trading amid strong institutional and retail interest.

NBIS's rapid revenue and margin expansion combined with a massive Meta contract and hedge fund backing signal deep AI infrastructure demand and elevate its leadership in cloud AI services.

Position history (4d) bull bear neutral
2026-05-22 2026-05-29
All 4 daily readings
2026-05-29 bearish · medium 9sig
2026-05-25 bearish · medium 12sig
2026-05-24 bearish · medium 11sig
2026-05-22 bearish · medium 6sig

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Evidence

17h ago Short interest at 20.7% of float, up 5%
Updated Thursday The FOMO got to me and I bought more stocks reddit-stocks
Updated Thursday Jim Cramer Discusses Nebius’ (NBIS) Latest Deal yahoo-finance
Updated Thursday NBIS 2026Q1: Revenue beats at $399M (+684% YoY), raises 2026 CapEx to $20B-$25B with strong Meta contract financing
7 older signals
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Nebius Group N.V. Communication Services · Internet Content & Information
Mkt Cap
$59B
P/E
89.2 fwd 639.7
Beta
1.24
52w Range
$34.72 - $233.73
Short Interest
45.1M 20.68%
Days to Cover
2.6 +3%
Technicals uptrend
vs 20d MA
+16.3%
vs 50d MA
+45.3%
from 52w Hi
0.0%
Vol (20d)
116%
1w return
+5.1%
1m return
+63.7%
3m return
+153.4%
Vol ratio
0.9x
Insiders
selling 0B / 11S
Analysts
bullish 5 up / 0 down
Earnings
mixed 2B / 2M
EPS Estimate
$-0.75 +5.4% 30d 2up / 1dn
Est. Dispersion
102% 4 analysts
Analyst Target
$238 $120 - $380
Options P/C
1.92 6C / 7P unusual
Insider Cluster
strong sell 0B / 3S
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Bridgewater, D.E. Shaw
Financials
Revenue
$399M +684% YoY
FCF
$-215M
Gross Margin
74%
Op Margin
-32%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $718M
Bridgewater $2M
D.E. Shaw
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 6
net selling · $107,852,605 sold
3 insiders · 6 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
KOROLENKO ANDREY · other
BUNINA ELENA · sell · $999,940
BUNINA ELENA · sell · $2,000,050
BORODITSKY MARC · sell · $978,975
KOROLENKO ANDREY · sell · $101,620,000
BUNINA ELENA · sell · $2,253,640
transcript 1
2026Q1 · 6511 words
read transcript
Operator (Operator): Welcome to Nebius Group's Q1 2026 Earnings Conference Call. I will now hand over to Gili Naftalovich, Head of Investor Relations, to start the call. Gili Naftalovich (Head of Investor Relations): Hi, everyone, and welcome to Nebius's first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Joining us on the call today are Co-Founder and CEO, Arkady; and our CFO, Dado, along with the broader Nebius executive management team. Now I'll quickly cover the safe harbor. Some of the statements that we make today regarding our business operations and financial performance may be considered forward-looking. Such statements are based on current expectations and assumptions that are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially. Please refer to our Form 20-F, which is a list of our risk factors. We undertake no obligation to update any forward-looking statements. During this call, we will present both GAAP and non-GAAP financial measures. A reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP measures is included in today's earnings press release, which is distributed and available to the public through our Investor Relations website located at nebius.com. And now I'd like to turn the call over to Arkady. Arkady Volozh (Co-Founder and CEO): Thanks, Gili, and welcome, everyone, to our call. We have had a great start to the year. We're building an AI-native hyperscaler. And I would say we are developing it across four dimensions. The first is capacity and scale; second, product and functionality; third is customers and demand; and finally, capital, our fourth dimension. All our focus is on execution across all four of these dimensions. Let me put our results of the quarter in this context. First, on capacity. As you see, we are building big. Last quarter, we told you that we already contracted more than 2 gigawatts of power while targeting more than 3 gigawatts by the end of the year. Three months later today, we have already contracted more than 3.5 gigawatts, and we are now targeting at least 4 gigawatts of contracted power this year. Today, we announced a new site in Pennsylvania to support 1.2 gigawatts of power once fully live. This is our second owned gigawatt-scale site in the United States. Our platform is most efficient when we own the full stack, and we are building towards that. Our owned contracted capacity now accounts for more than 75% of our total power. But more importantly, we continue to build our full stack platform, and this is our second dimension. What does it mean? It means we don't just offer compute. We offer cloud services, services that span across the AI lifecycle from bare-metal to multi-tenancy to inference to agentic and more. And we have made significant progress on that front. And it's not just developing our platform and launching Aether version 3.5 this quarter. Our three acquisitions this year, Tavily, Eigen and Clarifai demonstrate the uniqueness of what we're building. All three companies bring industry-leading engineers and researchers to Nebius. Eigen AI and Clarifai strengthened our inference optimization solutions. Eigen was recognized as the number one speed inference provider by NVIDIA. While Eigen optimizes at the model level, Clarifai optimizes at the system level, and they both strengthen our in-house Token Factory offering. We also acquired Tavily earlier this year, extending our platform reach to agentic search, an increasingly significant part of the market. This acquisition brought us rarer capabilities of what this new class of developers need. We also expanded our technology partnership with NVIDIA. We again achieved NVIDIA Exemplar Cloud status this time on our GB300 for training workloads. We are among a small group of providers to achieve this status across multiple GPU generations. At our core, we're a technology company. We have top AI engineers and deep proprietary expertise across every layer of the stack, both hardware and software. We're quickly becoming a magnet for top talent. We're happy with our ability to enlarge our offering through strategic acquisitions. Our clients appreciate the full extent of our offering. This is not common in our market. These are our strengths, and this is our uniqueness. And we believe this is what will enable us to win. Demand is our third dimension, and it continues to be increasingly strong, but more importantly, our full stack platform allows us to capture and service a large and diverse range of hundreds of customers, not just several big bare-metal offtakers. Our pipeline generation in the first quarter grew 3.5x over the fourth quarter, and this is a record for us. And the demand is broadening across industries. Today, we typically see several customers competing for every GPU we bring online. We're building to support this demand with scale and discipline. New customers across a number of use cases are using our full range of offerings to solve their most challenging problems. For exampl ... [transcript truncated at 5,000 chars — full text available via API]
Transcript Analysis (2026Q1) ▾

Management confident and specific, generally owning results with minimal hedging but slight evasiveness on operational delays and contract concentration risk.

Hedging
0.15 (low)
Confidence
0.85 (high)
Specificity
0.75 (high)
Active Voice
0.78
Prepared vs Q&A Gap
-0.10
Question Avoidance
2
Avoided Topics
detailed margin guidance for Q2 direct discussion of contract risk concentration
Key Language Changes
  • Repeated emphasis on strong customer demand and contracted capacity as risk mitigants
  • Emphasis on strategic partnerships and acquisitions as sources of competitive advantage
  • Focus on disciplined capital allocation and multiple financing options
  • No unusual disclaimers or significant new risk language beyond standard forward-looking statements
Track Record (2/3 correct) ▾

Direction History

2/3 correct at 5 days
2026-04-14 bearish -3.3%
2026-04-09 bullish +21.3%
2026-03-31 bearish +20.5%
bearish for 4d | 15 signals · latest 17h ago

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