MRNA Earnings
Friday, May 01 2026
EPS Estimate
$-2.90
$-4.52 – $-1.86
Revenue Estimate
$248M
Current Price
$54.23
Our Position
neutralWhale bets bullish while analysts stay skeptical
structured data
est. revisions falling
(-31.7pp / 30d)
Options traders are pricing volatility and earnings surprises, not a repricing based on known facts. The 18% gap between whale-predicted range midpoint and consensus analyst target signals that institutional sell-side sees no justification for current levels — a risk flag. Without a clinical win or guidance boost, this rebound is positioning for earnings noise, not a validated move.
Watch: Earnings in 65 days and any clinical trial readouts will force resolution. Whales are betting on surprise; analysts are banking on disappointment. Watch whether Moderna announces new pipeline data or raises guidance to anchor this move or signals retreat toward the $43.75 target.
Data Signal Summary
2 bullish
2 bearish
Estimates down -27%
Insider buying cluster
Put/call 0.1 (bullish skew)
Price downtrend
Key Context
Insider Activity
selling
Price Trend
downtrend
From 52w High
-0.8%
Est. Revisions (30d)
-27.3% 1up/1dn
Analyst Target (mean)
$46 $21–$135 -15%
Options P/C Ratio
0.07
Est. Dispersion
100% 12 analysts
Insider Cluster
strong buy (officer)
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Two Sigma, Renaissance, Coatue, D.E. Shaw
Recent Activity
insider trades
116 transactions
Other
·
MOCK JAMES M (Chief Financial Officer)
·1,453 shares
Other
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME (Officer)
·11,797 shares
Other
·
MOCK JAMES M (Chief Financial Officer)
·11,797 shares
Sell
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME (Officer)
·13,885 shares
·$726,047
Exercise
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME (Officer)
·23,884 shares
·$429,880
111 more
Other
·
MOCK JAMES M
·11,004 shr
Other
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·39,830 shr
Sell
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·160,009 shr
·$7,814,840
Exercise
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·160,009 shr
·$3,064,172
Award
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·2,630 shr
Award
·
MOCK JAMES M
·2,630 shr
Award
·
BANCEL STEPHANE J
·11,271 shr
Award
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·4,884 shr
Other
·
MOCK JAMES M
·1,452 shr
Exercise
·
BANCEL STEPHANE J
·688,073 shr
·$7,499,996
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·23,853 shr
·$703,306
Exercise
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·23,853 shr
·$259,998
Sell
·
HUSSAIN SHAH ABBAS
·504 shr
·$13,910
Other
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·47,190 shr
Other
·
MOCK JAMES M
·47,190 shr
Other
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·233 shr
Other
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·652 shr
Other
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·1,102 shr
Other
·
MOCK JAMES M
·1,102 shr
Other
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·2,047 shr
Other
·
HUSSAIN SHAH ABBAS
·1,439 shr
Other
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·232 shr
Other
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·651 shr
Other
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·1,103 shr
Other
·
MOCK JAMES M
·1,103 shr
Other
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·2,048 shr
Other
·
RUBENSTEIN DAVID M
·850 shr
Sell
·
HUSSAIN SHAH ABBAS
·312 shr
·$8,736
Other
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·1,139 shr
Other
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·1,101 shr
Other
·
MOCK JAMES M
·1,101 shr
Other
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·2,046 shr
Other
·
HUSSAIN SHAH ABBAS
·892 shr
Other
·
NABEL ELIZABETH G
·979 shr
Other
·
HORNING SANDRA
·979 shr
Other
·
RUBENSTEIN DAVID M
·677 shr
Buy
·
BANCEL STEPHANE J
·160,314 shr
·$5,004,318
Buy
·
SAGAN PAUL L
·31,620 shr
·$1,004,251
Other
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·562 shr
Other
·
MOCK JAMES M
·329 shr
Other
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·1,263 shr
Other
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·5,747 shr
Other
·
MOCK JAMES M
·5,746 shr
Other
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·5,746 shr
Award
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·2,047 shr
Award
·
BANCEL STEPHANE J
·13,233 shr
Award
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·5,734 shr
Other
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·523 shr
Sell
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·529 shr
·$23,637
Other
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·1,138 shr
Sell
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·112 shr
·$4,849
Sell
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·314 shr
·$13,595
Sell
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·1,418 shr
·$60,675
Sell
·
MOCK JAMES M
·1,420 shr
·$60,761
Sell
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·291 shr
·$12,452
Other
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·2,981 shr
Other
·
MOCK JAMES M
·2,981 shr
Other
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·610 shr
Sell
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·277 shr
·$12,771
Sell
·
MOCK JAMES M
·715 shr
·$42,986
Sell
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·551 shr
·$40,539
Sell
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·114 shr
·$8,777
Sell
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·318 shr
·$24,483
Sell
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·162 shr
·$12,640
Sell
·
MOCK JAMES M
·162 shr
·$12,640
Sell
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·300 shr
·$23,408
Sell
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·1,319 shr
·$104,722
Other
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·329 shr
Sell
·
MOCK JAMES M
·1,321 shr
·$104,881
Other
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·611 shr
Other
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·2,652 shr
Other
·
MOCK JAMES M
·2,652 shr
Sell
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·254 shr
·$21,363
Other
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·522 shr
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·15,000 shr
·$1,799,443
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·15,000 shr
·$1,766,972
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·15,000 shr
·$1,842,651
Sell
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·15,000 shr
·$1,816,800
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·15,000 shr
·$1,756,177
Sell
·
MOCK JAMES M
·689 shr
·$81,465
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·15,000 shr
·$1,908,293
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·15,000 shr
·$2,003,561
Sell
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·15,000 shr
·$2,072,400
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·15,000 shr
·$2,208,071
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·202,832 shr
·$30,087,339
Sell
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·5,178 shr
·$766,785
Other
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·10,247 shr
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·15,000 shr
·$2,268,804
Sell
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·122 shr
·$17,168
Sell
·
MOCK JAMES M
·691 shr
·$97,237
Sell
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·339 shr
·$47,704
Other
·
MOCK JAMES M
·1,326 shr
Sell
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·183 shr
·$26,444
Sell
·
MOCK JAMES M
·183 shr
·$26,444
Sell
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·341 shr
·$49,276
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·20,000 shr
·$2,901,585
Other
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·328 shr
Sell
·
KLINGER SHANNON THYME
·1,296 shr
·$210,566
Other
·
MOCK JAMES M
·328 shr
Sell
·
MOCK JAMES M
·648 shr
·$105,283
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·15,000 shr
·$2,363,556
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·15,000 shr
·$1,909,863
Sell
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·15,000 shr
·$1,912,350
Sell
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·255 shr
·$30,844
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·15,000 shr
·$1,825,220
Other
·
NABEL ELIZABETH G
·732 shr
Other
·
BERENSON STEPHEN A.
·732 shr
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·15,000 shr
·$1,663,855
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·15,000 shr
·$1,624,836
Sell
·
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS
·15,000 shr
·$1,550,703
Sell
·
HOGE STEPHEN
·15,000 shr
·$1,575,300
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