MRNA Moderna, Inc.

neutral track record → $54.23 -0.36 (-0.7%)
Get emailed when MRNA changes direction
Mkt Cap $22B 52wk $22.28 - $59.55 Earnings 2026-05-01 47d ago
Insider selling: $78,169,013 sold by 11 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions: -27.3% (1 up, 1 down in 30d)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)
Factor Model (net -1.8)

Factor Model

net -1.8 3.6 / 10
Est. Revisions
-0.9
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.0
Analyst Rev.
+0.0
Narrative Gap
+0.0

Whale bets bullish while analysts stay skeptical

Watch: Earnings in 65 days and any clinical trial readouts will force resolution. Whales are betting on surprise; analysts are banking on disappointment. Watch whether Moderna announces new pipeline data or raises guidance to anchor this move or signals retreat toward the $43.75 target.

Moderna has climbed to $53.99 in after-hours trading (up 8.35% on March 4), testing its 52-week high of $55.19 with no disclosed fundamental catalyst. Whale options traders show net-bullish positioning — 45% of 22 unusual trades are bullish versus 36% bearish — and target a $30–$60 three-month range. But consensus analyst target sits at $43.75 (down 18% from current levels), creating a stark disconnect between derivative bets and fundamental reassessment. The stock has rallied 147% from its $22.29 52-week low.

Options traders are pricing volatility and earnings surprises, not a repricing based on known facts. The 18% gap between whale-predicted range midpoint and consensus analyst target signals that institutional sell-side sees no justification for current levels — a risk flag. Without a clinical win or guidance boost, this rebound is positioning for earnings noise, not a validated move.

Evidence

4d ago Jefferies Sees Reduced Upside for Arbutus Biopharma Corporation (ABUS) on Higher Appeal Probability yahoo-finance
8d ago Insider buy by BANCEL STEPHANE J (MRNA): $5,004,318
8d ago Insider buy by SAGAN PAUL L (MRNA): $1,004,251
8d ago Insider sell by AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS (MRNA): $30,087,339
12d ago Moderna Is Most Shorted S&P 500 Stock Now. Is It a Contrarian Buy? yahoo-finance
16d ago Jim Cramer Discusses the Possibility of “End of Adobe’s Design Dominance” yahoo-finance
47d ago Moderna rises as up to $2.25 billion settlement for COVID vaccine patent dispute to remove overhang yahoo-finance
47d ago What the Options Market Tells Us About Moderna benzinga
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61d ago Moderna stock surges as FDA reverses course, agrees to review new flu shot
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Moderna, Inc. Healthcare · Biotechnology
Mkt Cap
$22B
Beta
1.34
52w Range
$22.28 - $59.55
Short Interest
60.6M 18.71%
Days to Cover
7.1 -14%
Technicals downtrend
from 52w Hi
-0.8%
1w return
+2.6%
Insiders
selling 0B / 15S
EPS Estimate
$-2.67 -27.3% 30d 1up / 1dn
Est. Dispersion
100% 12 analysts
Analyst Target
$46 $21 - $135
Options P/C
0.07
Insider Cluster
strong buy 2B / 4S (officer)
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Two Sigma, Renaissance, Coatue, D.E. Shaw
Financials
Revenue
$676M -29% YoY
FCF
$891M
Gross Margin
33%
Op Margin
-127%
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $352M
Two Sigma $228M
Renaissance $17M
Coatue $6M
D.E. Shaw $2M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 116
net selling · $78,169,013 sold · $6,008,569 bought
11 insiders · 116 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
MOCK JAMES M · other
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · other
MOCK JAMES M · other
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · sell · $726,047
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · exercise · $429,880
MOCK JAMES M · other
HOGE STEPHEN · other
HOGE STEPHEN · sell · $7,814,840
HOGE STEPHEN · exercise · $3,064,172
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · award
MOCK JAMES M · award
BANCEL STEPHANE J · award
HOGE STEPHEN · award
MOCK JAMES M · other
BANCEL STEPHANE J · exercise · $7,499,996
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $703,306
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · exercise · $259,998
HUSSAIN SHAH ABBAS · sell · $13,910
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · other
MOCK JAMES M · other
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · other
HOGE STEPHEN · other
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · other
MOCK JAMES M · other
HOGE STEPHEN · other
HUSSAIN SHAH ABBAS · other
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · other
HOGE STEPHEN · other
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · other
MOCK JAMES M · other
HOGE STEPHEN · other
RUBENSTEIN DAVID M · other
HUSSAIN SHAH ABBAS · sell · $8,736
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · other
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · other
MOCK JAMES M · other
HOGE STEPHEN · other
HUSSAIN SHAH ABBAS · other
NABEL ELIZABETH G · other
HORNING SANDRA · other
RUBENSTEIN DAVID M · other
BANCEL STEPHANE J · buy · $5,004,318
SAGAN PAUL L · buy · $1,004,251
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · other
MOCK JAMES M · other
HOGE STEPHEN · other
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · other
MOCK JAMES M · other
HOGE STEPHEN · other
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · award
BANCEL STEPHANE J · award
HOGE STEPHEN · award
HOGE STEPHEN · other
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · sell · $23,637
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · other
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · sell · $4,849
HOGE STEPHEN · sell · $13,595
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · sell · $60,675
MOCK JAMES M · sell · $60,761
HOGE STEPHEN · sell · $12,452
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · other
MOCK JAMES M · other
HOGE STEPHEN · other
HOGE STEPHEN · sell · $12,771
MOCK JAMES M · sell · $42,986
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · sell · $40,539
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · sell · $8,777
HOGE STEPHEN · sell · $24,483
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · sell · $12,640
MOCK JAMES M · sell · $12,640
HOGE STEPHEN · sell · $23,408
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · sell · $104,722
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · other
MOCK JAMES M · sell · $104,881
HOGE STEPHEN · other
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · other
MOCK JAMES M · other
HOGE STEPHEN · sell · $21,363
HOGE STEPHEN · other
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $1,799,443
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $1,766,972
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $1,842,651
HOGE STEPHEN · sell · $1,816,800
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $1,756,177
MOCK JAMES M · sell · $81,465
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $1,908,293
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $2,003,561
HOGE STEPHEN · sell · $2,072,400
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $2,208,071
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $30,087,339
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · sell · $766,785
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · other
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $2,268,804
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · sell · $17,168
MOCK JAMES M · sell · $97,237
HOGE STEPHEN · sell · $47,704
MOCK JAMES M · other
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · sell · $26,444
MOCK JAMES M · sell · $26,444
HOGE STEPHEN · sell · $49,276
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $2,901,585
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · other
KLINGER SHANNON THYME · sell · $210,566
MOCK JAMES M · other
MOCK JAMES M · sell · $105,283
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $2,363,556
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $1,909,863
HOGE STEPHEN · sell · $1,912,350
HOGE STEPHEN · sell · $30,844
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $1,825,220
NABEL ELIZABETH G · other
BERENSON STEPHEN A. · other
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $1,663,855
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $1,624,836
AFEYAN NOUBAR BOGHOS · sell · $1,550,703
HOGE STEPHEN · sell · $1,575,300
12 signals · latest 4d ago

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