MCD at all-time high faces sell-the-news risk
Expected move: 2–5% from event-day close
Full thesis
MCD trades at 52-week high ($311.36) with a 50% sell-the-news probability driven by heavy insider selling ($11.6M net over 90 days), analyst downgrades (4 down vs 1 up), and extreme bullish options positioning (P/C 0.17). Premium P/E of 25.6 leaves no margin of safety for any earnings miss or guidance cut. Historical pattern shows 40% base rate of earnings beats selling off, elevated to 50% given proximity to all-time high and insider activity.
MCD Earnings
Thursday, Apr 30 2026
EPS Estimate
$2.76
$2.68 – $2.83
Revenue Estimate
$6.5B
Current Price
$301.84
Our Position
neutralMcDonald's defends value with new deals
structured data
est. revisions stable
(-0.3pp / 30d)
The value menu and pricing efforts aim to sustain traffic and sales during a period of decelerating revenue growth and mixed analyst sentiment, while elevated insider selling and valuation create short-term risk.
Watch: Monitor McDonald's next earnings for traffic and comparable sales impact from value menu initiatives amid pricey stock levels and insider selling.
Data Signal Summary
1 bullish
2 bearish
Insider selling cluster
Put/call 0.4 (bullish skew)
Price downtrend
Key Context
Analyst Consensus
mixed
Insider Activity
selling
Price Trend
downtrend
From 52w High
-3.1%
P/E Ratio
25.6
Est. Revisions (30d)
-0.3% 1up/4dn
Analyst Target (mean)
$344 $250–$407 +14%
Options P/C Ratio
0.44
Est. Dispersion
6% 30 analysts
Insider Cluster
strong sell
Fund Convergence
strong D.E. Shaw, Elliott, Citadel, Two Sigma, Renaissance
Recent Activity
insider trades
104 transactions
Sell
·
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN (Officer)
·2,346 shares
·$727,260
Sell
·
BARONI DARIO (Officer)
·600 shares
·$194,262
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M (Officer)
·2,626 shares
·$862,221
Exercise
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M (Officer)
·2,626 shares
·$414,357
Sell
·
BANNER JONATHAN (Officer)
·6,200 shares
·$2,066,596
99 more
Exercise
·
BANNER JONATHAN
·4,600 shr
·$1,224,520
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·333 shr
·$110,033
Other
·
BANNER JONATHAN
·7,495 shr
Other
·
MC-DONALD GILLIAN CLARE
·6,778 shr
Exercise
·
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN
·6,686 shr
·$740,351
Other
·
BOYD TIFFANIE L
·2,347 shr
Other
·
BARONI DARIO
·3,009 shr
Other
·
BORDEN IAN FREDERICK
·6,379 shr
Other
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·5,980 shr
Other
·
RALLS-MORRISON DESIREE ANN
·4,146 shr
Other
·
RICE BRIAN S
·2,790 shr
Other
·
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM
·3,509 shr
Sell
·
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J
·52,553 shr
·$17,470,981
Exercise
·
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J
·73,281 shr
·$6,731,514
Sell
·
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN
·4,692 shr
·$1,553,052
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·2,626 shr
·$854,106
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·2,626 shr
·$805,079
Sell
·
RALLS-MORRISON DESIREE ANN
·2,486 shr
·$795,520
Sell
·
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN
·658 shr
·$207,270
Sell
·
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM
·6,567 shr
·$2,006,218
Exercise
·
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM
·6,567 shr
·$1,748,135
Sell
·
BORDEN IAN FREDERICK
·17,134 shr
·$5,311,540
Exercise
·
BORDEN IAN FREDERICK
·17,134 shr
·$2,000,052
Other
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·690 shr
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·3,195 shr
·$977,095
Sell
·
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM
·13,134 shr
·$3,945,716
Exercise
·
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM
·13,134 shr
·$3,373,538
Other
·
RICE BRIAN S
·8,789 shr
Sell
·
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN
·1,000 shr
·$315,000
Other
·
RICE BRIAN S
·5,902 shr
Sell
·
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN
·4,716 shr
·$1,485,540
Exercise
·
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN
·4,692 shr
·$740,351
Sell
·
BANNER JONATHAN
·1,000 shr
·$310,000
Other
·
BOYD TIFFANIE L
·3,100 shr
Other
·
ELTING LAUREN B.
·1,014 shr
Sell
·
RALLS-MORRISON DESIREE ANN
·2,487 shr
·$770,970
Sell
·
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN
·976 shr
·$296,216
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·939 shr
·$281,221
Sell
·
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN
·1,000 shr
·$300,000
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·939 shr
·$270,920
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·939 shr
·$295,851
Sell
·
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM
·6,000 shr
·$1,917,960
Exercise
·
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM
·6,000 shr
·$1,520,340
Other
·
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J
·31,842 shr
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·939 shr
·$299,072
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·939 shr
·$287,616
Sell
·
BOYD TIFFANIE L
·1,000 shr
·$309,270
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·939 shr
·$286,395
Sell
·
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM
·10,459 shr
·$3,228,798
Exercise
·
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM
·10,459 shr
·$1,704,997
Sell
·
BANNER JONATHAN
·1,500 shr
·$456,495
Sell
·
GROSS MARION K
·1,099 shr
·$334,871
Sell
·
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN
·3,200 shr
·$962,432
Other
·
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN
·5,921 shr
Other
·
BOYD TIFFANIE L
·3,427 shr
Other
·
BORDEN IAN FREDERICK
·10,909 shr
Other
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·11,748 shr
Other
·
RALLS-MORRISON DESIREE ANN
·8,057 shr
Other
·
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM
·5,874 shr
Other
·
GROSS MARION K
·1,555 shr
Other
·
SEMPELS JO
·1,524 shr
Other
·
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J
·38,600 shr
Sell
·
BANNER JONATHAN
·9,200 shr
·$2,828,172
Exercise
·
BANNER JONATHAN
·13,922 shr
·$2,449,040
Other
·
MC-DONALD GILLIAN CLARE
·3,935 shr
Sell
·
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J
·10,500 shr
·$3,255,525
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·300 shr
·$84,225
Sell
·
GROSS MARION K
·1,499 shr
·$436,134
Exercise
·
GROSS MARION K
·1,499 shr
·$145,628
Sell
·
RALLS-MORRISON DESIREE ANN
·6,817 shr
·$1,976,180
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·1,099 shr
·$319,919
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·1,099 shr
·$321,458
Sell
·
GROSS MARION K
·1,499 shr
·$441,470
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·1,099 shr
·$321,326
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·333 shr
·$104,386
Exercise
·
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN
·2,346 shr
·$370,175
Sell
·
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J
·9,291 shr
·$2,833,755
Exercise
·
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J
·9,291 shr
·$1,041,614
Sell
·
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J
·18,356 shr
·$5,507,152
Sell
·
BORDEN IAN FREDERICK
·5,939 shr
·$1,781,938
Exercise
·
BORDEN IAN FREDERICK
·5,939 shr
·$576,974
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·1,099 shr
·$328,128
Sell
·
BORDEN IAN FREDERICK
·1,325 shr
·$397,500
Exercise
·
BORDEN IAN FREDERICK
·1,325 shr
·$128,724
Sell
·
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J
·3,934 shr
·$1,180,200
Sell
·
GROSS MARION K
·1,498 shr
·$428,967
Exercise
·
GROSS MARION K
·1,498 shr
·$145,531
Other
·
RICE BRIAN S
·4,149 shr
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·1,098 shr
·$316,993
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·1,099 shr
·$285,740
Sell
·
GROSS MARION K
·1,498 shr
·$371,893
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·1,098 shr
·$285,480
Other
·
CAPOZZI HEIDI B
·7,253 shr
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·1,099 shr
·$291,378
Other
·
HERNANDEZ ENRIQUEJR
·9,939 shr
Other
·
RALLS-MORRISON DESIREE ANN
·12,239 shr
Sell
·
BANNER JONATHAN
·800 shr
·$220,016
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·1,098 shr
·$303,751
Sell
·
ERLINGER JOSEPH M
·2,626 shr
·$806,182
analyst ratings
2 ratings
Morgan Stanley
→Equal-Weight
17h ago
Keybanc
→Overweight
1d ago
Explore more
