Get emailed when MCD changes direction
Mkt Cap $218B
P/E 25.6 fwd 21.3
52wk $283.47 - $341.75
3h ago
Insider selling: $75,723,444 sold by 16 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions:
-0.3%
(1 up, 4 down in 30d)
Next event:
Upcoming event
(est. 2–5% move)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)
Factor Model (net -1.2)
Factor Model
net -1.2 3.6 / 10
Est. Revisions
-0.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.0
Analyst Rev.
-0.8
Narrative Gap
+0.0
McDonald's defends value with new deals
Watch: Monitor McDonald's next earnings for traffic and comparable sales impact from value menu initiatives amid pricey stock levels and insider selling.
McDonald's is reinforcing value perception amid 78% of Americans viewing fast food as a luxury due to rising costs. The firm reintroduced the Snack Wrap at $2.99 and launched $1 add-ons and $5 meal deals to attract cost-conscious consumers. KeyBanc maintains an Overweight rating as concerns about sell-the-news risk arise from recent insider sales exceeding $11M and a premium P/E of 25.6 at all-time highs.
The value menu and pricing efforts aim to sustain traffic and sales during a period of decelerating revenue growth and mixed analyst sentiment, while elevated insider selling and valuation create short-term risk.
▼
$311.36
2026-04-20
Event Predictions
bearish
Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-30
10d
MCD at all-time high faces sell-the-news risk
-1.4%
$311.36
→ $306.94
Thesis
MCD trades at 52-week high ($311.36) with a 50% sell-the-news probability driven by heavy insider selling ($11.6M net over 90 days), analyst downgrades (4 down vs 1 up), and extreme bullish options positioning (P/C 0.17). Premium P/E of 25.6 leaves no margin of safety for any earnings miss or guidance cut. Historical pattern shows 40% base rate of earnings beats selling off, elevated to 50% given proximity to all-time high and insider activity.
Evidence
17h ago
Keybanc main MCD: Overweight → Overweight
7d ago
Insider sell by KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J (MCD): $17,470,981
12d ago
The ‘McValue’ Menu Is Getting Bigger. Does That Make McDonald’s a Top Recession-Proof Stock to Buy Now?
yahoo-finance
7 older signals
45d ago
Two Sigma 13F (2025Q4):. New position in KMB ($246,383,469) +382 more. Exited NB
Fundamentals & Data ▾
McDonald's Corporation
Consumer Cyclical · Restaurants
Mkt Cap
$218B
P/E
25.6 fwd 21.3
Beta
0.53
Div Yield
245.00%
52w Range
$283.47 - $341.75
Short Interest
9.2M 1.44%
Days to Cover
2.9 -1%
Technicals
downtrend
from 52w Hi
-1.4%
1w return
+0.8%
Insiders
selling
0B / 13S
Analysts
mixed
EPS Estimate
$2.75
-0.3% 30d
1up / 4dn
Est. Dispersion
6%
30 analysts
Analyst Target
$344
$250 - $407
Options P/C
0.17
2C / 0P unusual
Insider Cluster
strong sell
0B / 8S
Fund Convergence
strong
D.E. Shaw, Elliott, Citadel, Two Sigma, Renaissance
Financials
Revenue
$7.0B +10% YoY
FCF
$1.6B
Gross Margin
58%
Op Margin
45%
Momentum:
decelerating
Top Holders
D.E. Shaw
$1.4B
Elliott
$1.1B
Citadel
$791M
Two Sigma
$126M
Renaissance
$28M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade
104
net selling
· $75,723,444 sold
16 insiders · 104 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $104,386
BARONI DARIO · sell · $194,262
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $862,221
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · exercise · $414,357
BANNER JONATHAN · sell · $2,066,596
BANNER JONATHAN · exercise · $1,224,520
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $110,033
BANNER JONATHAN · other
MC-DONALD GILLIAN CLARE · other
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN · exercise · $740,351
BOYD TIFFANIE L · other
BARONI DARIO · other
BORDEN IAN FREDERICK · other
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · other
RALLS-MORRISON DESIREE ANN · other
RICE BRIAN S · other
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM · other
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J · sell · $17,470,981
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J · exercise · $6,731,514
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN · sell · $1,553,052
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $854,106
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $805,079
RALLS-MORRISON DESIREE ANN · sell · $795,520
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN · sell · $207,270
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM · sell · $2,006,218
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM · exercise · $1,748,135
BORDEN IAN FREDERICK · sell · $5,311,540
BORDEN IAN FREDERICK · exercise · $2,000,052
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · other
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $977,095
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM · sell · $3,945,716
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM · exercise · $3,373,538
RICE BRIAN S · other
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN · sell · $315,000
RICE BRIAN S · other
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN · sell · $1,485,540
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN · exercise · $740,351
BANNER JONATHAN · sell · $310,000
BOYD TIFFANIE L · other
ELTING LAUREN B. · other
RALLS-MORRISON DESIREE ANN · sell · $770,970
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN · sell · $296,216
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $281,221
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN · sell · $300,000
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $270,920
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $295,851
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM · sell · $1,917,960
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM · exercise · $1,520,340
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J · other
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $299,072
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $287,616
BOYD TIFFANIE L · sell · $309,270
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $286,395
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM · sell · $3,228,798
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM · exercise · $1,704,997
BANNER JONATHAN · sell · $456,495
GROSS MARION K · sell · $334,871
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN · sell · $962,432
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN · other
BOYD TIFFANIE L · other
BORDEN IAN FREDERICK · other
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · other
RALLS-MORRISON DESIREE ANN · other
STEIJAERT MANUEL JM · other
GROSS MARION K · other
SEMPELS JO · other
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J · other
BANNER JONATHAN · sell · $2,828,172
BANNER JONATHAN · exercise · $2,449,040
MC-DONALD GILLIAN CLARE · other
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J · sell · $3,255,525
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $84,225
GROSS MARION K · sell · $436,134
GROSS MARION K · exercise · $145,628
RALLS-MORRISON DESIREE ANN · sell · $1,976,180
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $319,919
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $321,458
GROSS MARION K · sell · $441,470
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $321,326
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN · sell · $727,260
FLATLEY EDITH MORGAN · exercise · $370,175
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J · sell · $2,833,755
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J · exercise · $1,041,614
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J · sell · $5,507,152
BORDEN IAN FREDERICK · sell · $1,781,938
BORDEN IAN FREDERICK · exercise · $576,974
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $328,128
BORDEN IAN FREDERICK · sell · $397,500
BORDEN IAN FREDERICK · exercise · $128,724
KEMPCZINSKI CHRISTOPHER J · sell · $1,180,200
GROSS MARION K · sell · $428,967
GROSS MARION K · exercise · $145,531
RICE BRIAN S · other
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $316,993
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $285,740
GROSS MARION K · sell · $371,893
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $285,480
CAPOZZI HEIDI B · other
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $291,378
HERNANDEZ ENRIQUEJR · other
RALLS-MORRISON DESIREE ANN · other
BANNER JONATHAN · sell · $220,016
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $303,751
ERLINGER JOSEPH M · sell · $806,182
event: -1.4% | 15 signals · latest 17h ago
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