MARA earnings likely to disappoint; massive estimate cuts signal downside
Expected move: 10–25% from event-day close
Full thesis
MARA faces a bearish setup despite recent 10.21% rally. Estimates have been revised DOWN 488.5%, suggesting the market is repricing the AI infrastructure narrative sharply downward. Insiders have sold $3.9M (12 transactions) in the 90 days leading into earnings, with timing concentrated just before the event. Extreme bullish options positioning (P/C 0.26) is a contrarian sell signal. The stock is at 52w high but in a downtrend, indicating the recent rally is a bounce, not a breakout. Sell-the-news probability is 50%, elevated from the 40% base rate.
MARA Earnings
Thursday, May 07 2026
EPS Estimate
$-0.51
$-0.85 – $-0.16
Revenue Estimate
$183M
Current Price
$11.23
Our Position
bullish · highMARA pivots with 1.9GW AI power plan
est. revisions stable
MARA is transforming from a pure Bitcoin miner into an AI infrastructure player, diversifying revenue streams and leveraging Bitcoin assets as financial fuel to fund massive data center expansion.
Watch: Track quarterly data center build rates and how quickly AI capacity ramps, signaling success of the pivot away from Bitcoin mining.
Data Signal Summary
1 bullish
3 bearish
Estimates down -488%
Insider selling cluster
Put/call 0.5 (bullish skew)
Price downtrend
Key Context
Insider Activity
selling
Price Trend
downtrend
From 52w High
-3.4%
Est. Revisions (30d)
-488.5% 0up/1dn
Analyst Target (mean)
$16 $8–$30 +46%
Options P/C Ratio
0.50
Est. Dispersion
137% 2 analysts
Insider Cluster
strong sell
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Renaissance, D.E. Shaw, Two Sigma
Recent Activity
insider trades
86 transactions
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G (Chief Executive Officer)
·27,505 shares
·$252,496
Sell
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN (Chief Financial Officer)
·16,000 shares
·$146,880
Award
·
THIEL FREDERICK G (Chief Executive Officer)
·752,093 shares
Award
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN (Chief Financial Officer)
·494,798 shares
Award
·
NOWAID ZABI (General Counsel)
·197,919 shares
81 more
Award
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·773,861 shr
Award
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·509,119 shr
Award
·
NOWAID ZABI
·203,648 shr
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·27,505 shr
·$210,688
Sell
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·16,000 shr
·$122,560
Award
·
MELLINGER DOUGLAS K
·82,759 shr
Award
·
ANTOUN GEORGES J
·82,759 shr
Award
·
HUMPTON BARBARA
·82,759 shr
Award
·
LEUPP JAY P
·82,759 shr
Award
·
GEORGE JANET
·82,759 shr
Award
·
MEALER-BURKE VICKI
·82,759 shr
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·27,505 shr
·$297,054
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·27,505 shr
·$296,229
Sell
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·34,732 shr
·$398,723
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·27,505 shr
·$329,785
Sell
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·34,732 shr
·$416,437
Sell
·
MELLINGER DOUGLAS K
·1,000 shr
·$16,550
Sell
·
NOWAID ZABI
·30,000 shr
·$480,220
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·27,505 shr
·$538,273
Sell
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·34,732 shr
·$789,806
Sell
·
MELLINGER DOUGLAS K
·1,000 shr
·$20,710
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·55,010 shr
·$927,744
Sell
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·34,732 shr
·$564,048
Sell
·
MELLINGER DOUGLAS K
·1,000 shr
·$16,100
Sell
·
MEALER-BURKE VICKI
·14,887 shr
·$226,580
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·27,505 shr
·$420,276
Sell
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·34,732 shr
·$546,334
Sell
·
MELLINGER DOUGLAS K
·1,000 shr
·$16,210
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·27,505 shr
·$536,898
Sell
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·34,732 shr
·$661,645
Sell
·
MELLINGER DOUGLAS K
·1,000 shr
·$17,420
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·27,505 shr
·$420,826
Sell
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·34,733 shr
·$550,518
Sell
·
MELLINGER DOUGLAS K
·1,000 shr
·$16,000
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·27,505 shr
·$431,278
Sell
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·16,700 shr
·$261,856
Sell
·
MELLINGER DOUGLAS K
·3,000 shr
·$48,000
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·55,010 shr
·$825,150
Sell
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·33,400 shr
·$501,000
Sell
·
NOWAID ZABI
·2,000 shr
·$26,680
Sell
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·16,700 shr
·$255,677
Award
·
MELLINGER DOUGLAS K
·43,103 shr
Award
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·417,550 shr
Award
·
ANTOUN GEORGES J
·43,103 shr
Award
·
HUMPTON BARBARA
·43,103 shr
Award
·
LEUPP JAY P
·43,103 shr
Award
·
GEORGE JANET
·43,103 shr
Award
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·274,704 shr
Award
·
NOWAID ZABI
·109,881 shr
Award
·
MEALER-BURKE VICKI
·43,103 shr
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·27,505 shr
·$458,783
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·27,505 shr
·$495,365
Sell
·
MELLINGER DOUGLAS K
·1,000 shr
·$17,000
Award
·
HUMPTON BARBARA
·10,477 shr
Award
·
GEORGE JANET
·10,477 shr
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·27,505 shr
·$646,368
Sell
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·16,700 shr
·$392,450
Sell
·
MELLINGER DOUGLAS K
·1,000 shr
·$23,800
Sell
·
LEUPP JAY P
·6,800 shr
·$203,320
Sell
·
LEUPP JAY P
·11,200 shr
·$303,072
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·27,505 shr
·$544,599
Other
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·176,818 shr
Sell
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·16,700 shr
·$330,660
Sell
·
MELLINGER DOUGLAS K
·1,000 shr
·$24,060
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·27,505 shr
·$481,338
Sell
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·16,700 shr
·$292,250
Sell
·
MELLINGER DOUGLAS K
·1,000 shr
·$16,770
Sell
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·27,512 shr
·$431,938
Sell
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·16,700 shr
·$262,190
Sell
·
MELLINGER DOUGLAS K
·1,000 shr
·$16,050
Sell
·
OUISSAL SAID
·10,217 shr
·$209,448
Award
·
MELLINGER DOUGLAS K
·28,887 shr
Award
·
DENUCCIO KEVIN A
·28,887 shr
Award
·
THIEL FREDERICK G
·1,646,606 shr
Award
·
ANTOUN GEORGES J
·28,887 shr
Award
·
OUISSAL SAID
·28,887 shr
Award
·
LEUPP JAY P
·28,887 shr
Award
·
JAMES SARITA M
·28,887 shr
Award
·
KHAN SALMAN HASSAN
·1,083,293 shr
Award
·
NOWAID ZABI
·433,317 shr
Award
·
MEALER-BURKE VICKI
·28,887 shr
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