MAR Earnings
Tuesday, May 05 2026
EPS Estimate
$2.53
$2.49 – $2.59
Revenue Estimate
$6.6B
Current Price
$377.93
Our Position
bearishWhale traders bet on downside; analysts hold $366 target
structured data
est. revisions falling
(-1.2pp / 30d)
The stark mismatch between whale positioning and analyst targets flags a near-term disconnect. Smart money is hedging or shorting while Street estimates imply modest 12% upside — the kind of gap that often precedes either a sharp reversal or a grind lower as consensus crowds what analysts already priced.
Watch: Watch whether the stock retests the $280 support level or bounces back toward $366. A break below $280 confirms the whale thesis; a recovery above $350 invalidates their bet and suggests analyst targets were the right read.
Data Signal Summary
0 bullish
3 bearish
Insider selling cluster
Put/call 4.0 (bearish skew)
Price downtrend
Key Context
Analyst Consensus
mixed
Insider Activity
selling
Price Trend
downtrend
From 52w High
0.0%
P/E Ratio
37.7
Est. Revisions (30d)
+0.3% 2up/1dn
Analyst Target (mean)
$361 $269–$415 -4%
Options P/C Ratio
4.01
Est. Dispersion
8% 21 analysts
Insider Cluster
strong sell
Fund Convergence
strong D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Renaissance, Bridgewater
Recent Activity
insider trades
131 transactions
Award
·
LEWIS AYLWIN B (Director)
·11 shares
·$3,625
Sell
·
MENON RAJEEV (Officer)
·3,492 shares
·$1,236,168
Sell
·
BROWN WILLIAM P (Officer)
·9,456 shares
·$3,387,622
Sell
·
BRELAND BENJAMIN T (Officer)
·2,000 shares
·$716,060
Sell
·
MENON RAJEEV (Officer)
·6,333 shares
·$2,258,412
126 more
Exercise
·
MENON RAJEEV
·8,530 shr
·$1,790,910
Sell
·
PINTO DREW
·4,000 shr
·$1,439,256
Sell
·
CAPUANO ANTHONY G
·63,000 shr
·$22,631,033
Sell
·
MARRIOTT DAVID SHEETS
·4,747 shr
·$1,708,933
Award
·
BRELAND BENJAMIN T
·2,793 shr
·$990,482
Award
·
ROE PEGGY FANG
·1,524 shr
·$540,456
Award
·
MASON JENNIFER
·2,538 shr
·$900,051
Award
·
ANAND SATYAJIT
·2,538 shr
·$900,051
Award
·
MENON RAJEEV
·1,185 shr
·$420,237
Award
·
PINTO DREW
·1,524 shr
·$540,456
Award
·
HILL DAVID SHAWN
·846 shr
·$300,017
Award
·
HILL DAVID SHAWN
·676 shr
·$239,730
Award
·
CAPUANO ANTHONY G
·13,044 shr
·$4,625,794
Sell
·
REISS RENA HOZORE
·2,512 shr
·$896,784
Award
·
REISS RENA HOZORE
·2,244 shr
·$795,790
Award
·
LEE FELITIA
·891 shr
·$315,975
Award
·
MAO YIBING
·1,059 shr
·$375,553
Award
·
CAPUANO ANTHONY G
·84,484 shr
Award
·
BROWN WILLIAM P
·13,518 shr
Award
·
BRELAND BENJAMIN T
·13,518 shr
Award
·
ROE PEGGY FANG
·6,760 shr
Award
·
ANAND SATYAJIT
·4,506 shr
Award
·
MENON RAJEEV
·4,506 shr
Award
·
PINTO DREW
·6,760 shr
Award
·
REISS RENA HOZORE
·11,266 shr
Award
·
OBERG KATHLEEN K
·19,150 shr
Award
·
MAO YIBING
·4,712 shr
Award
·
LEWIS AYLWIN B
·11 shr
·$3,625
Award
·
MAO YIBING
·1,865 shr
·$578,598
Exercise
·
MAO YIBING
·3,921 shr
·$1,216,451
Sell
·
LEE FELITIA
·1,617 shr
·$494,769
Other
·
HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT
·5,514 shr
Other
·
MARRIOTT DAVID SHEETS
·488 shr
Other
·
MARRIOTT JOHN WILLARD JR
·123 shr
Other
·
HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT
·2,162 shr
Sell
·
LEE FELITIA
·873 shr
·$263,280
Other
·
MARRIOTT JOHN WILLARD JR
·5,528 shr
Other
·
MARRIOTT DAVID SHEETS
·850 shr
Sell
·
HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT
·70,000 shr
·$20,414,100
Other
·
BRELAND BENJAMIN T
·11 shr
Sell
·
ROE PEGGY FANG
·2,000 shr
·$584,240
Exercise
·
ANAND SATYAJIT
·6,724 shr
·$449,567
Sell
·
REISS RENA HOZORE
·5,483 shr
·$1,574,224
Exercise
·
REISS RENA HOZORE
·20,110 shr
·$2,658,649
Sell
·
BRELAND BENJAMIN T
·1,650 shr
·$472,065
Sell
·
BROWN WILLIAM P
·6,666 shr
·$1,866,720
Award
·
LEWIS AYLWIN B
·13 shr
·$3,625
Other
·
ROE PEGGY FANG
·200 shr
Award
·
LEWIS AYLWIN B
·13 shr
·$3,625
Sell
·
MENON RAJEEV
·2,500 shr
·$670,710
Sell
·
CAPUANO ANTHONY G
·12,000 shr
·$3,166,800
Sell
·
BRELAND BENJAMIN T
·1,850 shr
·$503,986
Award
·
HENDERSON FREDERICK A
·868 shr
Award
·
SCHWAB SUSAN C
·868 shr
Award
·
LEE DEBRA L
·868 shr
Award
·
REID GRANT F
·868 shr
Award
·
TRESVANT SEAN
·868 shr
Award
·
HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT
·868 shr
Award
·
GOREN ISABELLA D.
·868 shr
Award
·
LEWIS AYLWIN B
·868 shr
Award
·
ROZANSKI HORACIO
·868 shr
Award
·
HOBART LAUREN R
·868 shr
Award
·
MCCARTHY MARGARET M
·868 shr
Award
·
LEWIS AYLWIN B
·15 shr
·$3,625
Other
·
BROWN WILLIAM P
·266 shr
Sell
·
SCHWAB SUSAN C
·1,053 shr
·$292,332
Sell
·
BROWN WILLIAM P
·12,642 shr
·$3,610,934
Exercise
·
BROWN WILLIAM P
·26,030 shr
·$4,656,936
Sell
·
REISS RENA HOZORE
·3,500 shr
·$1,003,275
Sell
·
OBERG KATHLEEN K
·14,498 shr
·$4,031,436
Award
·
BROWN WILLIAM P
·3,243 shr
·$930,157
Award
·
BRELAND BENJAMIN T
·3,402 shr
·$975,762
Award
·
ROE PEGGY FANG
·1,728 shr
·$495,625
Award
·
ANAND SATYAJIT
·1,230 shr
·$352,789
Award
·
MENON RAJEEV
·1,230 shr
·$352,789
Award
·
PINTO DREW
·1,728 shr
·$495,625
Award
·
CAPUANO ANTHONY G
·14,382 shr
·$4,125,045
Award
·
REISS RENA HOZORE
·2,772 shr
·$795,065
Award
·
OBERG KATHLEEN K
·4,707 shr
·$1,350,062
Award
·
LEE FELITIA
·1,572 shr
·$450,881
Award
·
MAO YIBING
·1,179 shr
·$338,161
Award
·
CAPUANO ANTHONY G
·62,588 shr
Award
·
BROWN WILLIAM P
·10,015 shr
Award
·
BRELAND BENJAMIN T
·8,012 shr
Award
·
REISS RENA HOZORE
·8,012 shr
Award
·
OBERG KATHLEEN K
·14,020 shr
Award
·
LEWIS AYLWIN B
·12 shr
·$3,625
Other
·
BROWN WILLIAM P
·252 shr
Other
·
MARRIOTT JOHN WILLARD JR
·5,298 shr
Other
·
HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT
·3,044 shr
Sell
·
ANAND SATYAJIT
·1,919 shr
·$563,476
Other
·
MARRIOTT JOHN WILLARD JR
·170,038 shr
Award
·
BROWN WILLIAM P
·6,600 shr
·$1,876,446
Sell
·
BROWN WILLIAM P
·1,707 shr
·$485,292
Exercise
·
BROWN WILLIAM P
·6,600 shr
·$937,530
Other
·
HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT
·3,802 shr
Award
·
CAPUANO ANTHONY G
·23,370 shr
·$6,650,401
Sell
·
CAPUANO ANTHONY G
·8,332 shr
·$2,370,332
Exercise
·
CAPUANO ANTHONY G
·23,370 shr
·$6,650,401
Award
·
OBERG KATHLEEN K
·22,049 shr
·$6,226,330
Sell
·
OBERG KATHLEEN K
·4,170 shr
·$1,181,361
Exercise
·
OBERG KATHLEEN K
·7,069 shr
·$2,021,097
Sell
·
OBERG KATHLEEN K
·2,360 shr
·$673,568
Sell
·
BRELAND BENJAMIN T
·880 shr
·$250,140
Award
·
BROWN WILLIAM P
·6,945 shr
·$1,930,772
Sell
·
BROWN WILLIAM P
·2,037 shr
·$567,783
Exercise
·
BROWN WILLIAM P
·1,462 shr
·$407,430
Sell
·
PINTO DREW
·1,000 shr
·$280,719
Other
·
MARRIOTT DAVID SHEETS
·1,356 shr
Sell
·
ROE PEGGY FANG
·3,000 shr
·$828,390
Sell
·
REISS RENA HOZORE
·3,487 shr
·$962,865
Sell
·
LEE FELITIA
·916 shr
·$253,256
Sell
·
BRELAND BENJAMIN T
·500 shr
·$137,245
Award
·
LEWIS AYLWIN B
·14 shr
·$3,625
Award
·
LEWIS AYLWIN B
·14 shr
·$3,625
Award
·
HENDERSON FREDERICK A
·837 shr
Award
·
SCHWAB SUSAN C
·837 shr
Award
·
LEE DEBRA L
·837 shr
Award
·
REID GRANT F
·837 shr
Award
·
HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT
·837 shr
Award
·
GOREN ISABELLA D.
·837 shr
Award
·
LEWIS AYLWIN B
·837 shr
Award
·
ROZANSKI HORACIO
·837 shr
Award
·
HOBART LAUREN R
·837 shr
Award
·
MCCARTHY MARGARET M
·837 shr
Exercise
·
HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT
·7,588 shr
·$627,300
analyst ratings
1 rating
Barclays
→Equal-Weight
4d ago
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