Get emailed when MAR changes direction
Insider selling: $81,777,566 sold by 26 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions:
+0.3%
(2 up, 1 down in 30d)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)
Factor Model (net +1.0)
Factor Model
net +1.0 3.3 / 10
Est. Revisions
+0.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.0
Analyst Rev.
+0.6
Narrative Gap
+0.0
Whale traders bet on downside; analysts hold $366 target
Watch: Watch whether the stock retests the $280 support level or bounces back toward $366. A break below $280 confirms the whale thesis; a recovery above $350 invalidates their bet and suggests analyst targets were the right read.
Marriott is caught between conflicting signals. Options traders are heavily bearish — 50% taking downside positions versus 40% bullish — with whale traders building 13 puts valued at $1.51M against just 7 calls at $409K. They're concentrating positions in the $280–$375 strike band over three months. Meanwhile, five analysts maintain an average price target of $366, suggesting limited upside from current levels around $326.
The stark mismatch between whale positioning and analyst targets flags a near-term disconnect. Smart money is hedging or shorting while Street estimates imply modest 12% upside — the kind of gap that often precedes either a sharp reversal or a grind lower as consensus crowds what analysts already priced.
Evidence
4d ago
Barclays main MAR: Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight
7d ago
Insider sell by CAPUANO ANTHONY G (MAR): $22,631,033
7d ago
Insider sell by HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT (MAR): $20,414,100
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Marriott International, Inc.
Consumer Cyclical · Lodging
Mkt Cap
$95B
P/E
37.7 fwd 27.7
Beta
1.10
Div Yield
76.00%
52w Range
$212.53 - $370.00
Short Interest
6.9M 2.93%
Days to Cover
4.3 -1%
Technicals
downtrend
from 52w Hi
0.0%
1w return
+6.7%
Insiders
selling
0B / 7S
Analysts
mixed
EPS Estimate
$2.54
+0.3% 30d
2up / 1dn
Est. Dispersion
8%
21 analysts
Analyst Target
$361
$269 - $415
Options P/C
4.01
Insider Cluster
strong sell
0B / 10S
Fund Convergence
strong
D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Renaissance, Bridgewater
Financials
Revenue
$6.7B +4% YoY
FCF
$657M
Gross Margin
15%
Op Margin
12%
Momentum:
accelerating
Top Holders
D.E. Shaw
$2.7B
Citadel
$699M
Renaissance
$2M
Bridgewater
$2M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade
131
net selling
· $81,777,566 sold
26 insiders · 131 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
LEWIS AYLWIN B · award · $3,625
MENON RAJEEV · sell · $1,236,168
BROWN WILLIAM P · sell · $3,387,622
BRELAND BENJAMIN T · sell · $716,060
MENON RAJEEV · sell · $2,258,412
MENON RAJEEV · exercise · $1,790,910
PINTO DREW · sell · $1,439,256
CAPUANO ANTHONY G · sell · $22,631,033
MARRIOTT DAVID SHEETS · sell · $1,708,933
BRELAND BENJAMIN T · award · $990,482
ROE PEGGY FANG · award · $540,456
MASON JENNIFER · award · $900,051
ANAND SATYAJIT · award · $900,051
MENON RAJEEV · award · $420,237
PINTO DREW · award · $540,456
HILL DAVID SHAWN · award · $300,017
HILL DAVID SHAWN · award · $239,730
CAPUANO ANTHONY G · award · $4,625,794
REISS RENA HOZORE · sell · $896,784
REISS RENA HOZORE · award · $795,790
LEE FELITIA · award · $315,975
MAO YIBING · award · $375,553
CAPUANO ANTHONY G · award
BROWN WILLIAM P · award
BRELAND BENJAMIN T · award
ROE PEGGY FANG · award
ANAND SATYAJIT · award
MENON RAJEEV · award
PINTO DREW · award
REISS RENA HOZORE · award
OBERG KATHLEEN K · award
MAO YIBING · award
LEWIS AYLWIN B · award · $3,625
MAO YIBING · award · $578,598
MAO YIBING · exercise · $1,216,451
LEE FELITIA · sell · $494,769
HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT · other
MARRIOTT DAVID SHEETS · other
MARRIOTT JOHN WILLARD JR · other
HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT · other
LEE FELITIA · sell · $263,280
MARRIOTT JOHN WILLARD JR · other
MARRIOTT DAVID SHEETS · other
HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT · sell · $20,414,100
BRELAND BENJAMIN T · other
ROE PEGGY FANG · sell · $584,240
ANAND SATYAJIT · exercise · $449,567
REISS RENA HOZORE · sell · $1,574,224
REISS RENA HOZORE · exercise · $2,658,649
BRELAND BENJAMIN T · sell · $472,065
BROWN WILLIAM P · sell · $1,866,720
LEWIS AYLWIN B · award · $3,625
ROE PEGGY FANG · other
LEWIS AYLWIN B · award · $3,625
MENON RAJEEV · sell · $670,710
CAPUANO ANTHONY G · sell · $3,166,800
BRELAND BENJAMIN T · sell · $503,986
HENDERSON FREDERICK A · award
SCHWAB SUSAN C · award
LEE DEBRA L · award
REID GRANT F · award
TRESVANT SEAN · award
HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT · award
GOREN ISABELLA D. · award
LEWIS AYLWIN B · award
ROZANSKI HORACIO · award
HOBART LAUREN R · award
MCCARTHY MARGARET M · award
LEWIS AYLWIN B · award · $3,625
BROWN WILLIAM P · other
SCHWAB SUSAN C · sell · $292,332
BROWN WILLIAM P · sell · $3,610,934
BROWN WILLIAM P · exercise · $4,656,936
REISS RENA HOZORE · sell · $1,003,275
OBERG KATHLEEN K · sell · $4,031,436
BROWN WILLIAM P · award · $930,157
BRELAND BENJAMIN T · award · $975,762
ROE PEGGY FANG · award · $495,625
ANAND SATYAJIT · award · $352,789
MENON RAJEEV · award · $352,789
PINTO DREW · award · $495,625
CAPUANO ANTHONY G · award · $4,125,045
REISS RENA HOZORE · award · $795,065
OBERG KATHLEEN K · award · $1,350,062
LEE FELITIA · award · $450,881
MAO YIBING · award · $338,161
CAPUANO ANTHONY G · award
BROWN WILLIAM P · award
BRELAND BENJAMIN T · award
REISS RENA HOZORE · award
OBERG KATHLEEN K · award
LEWIS AYLWIN B · award · $3,625
BROWN WILLIAM P · other
MARRIOTT JOHN WILLARD JR · other
HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT · other
ANAND SATYAJIT · sell · $563,476
MARRIOTT JOHN WILLARD JR · other
BROWN WILLIAM P · award · $1,876,446
BROWN WILLIAM P · sell · $485,292
BROWN WILLIAM P · exercise · $937,530
HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT · other
CAPUANO ANTHONY G · award · $6,650,401
CAPUANO ANTHONY G · sell · $2,370,332
CAPUANO ANTHONY G · exercise · $6,650,401
OBERG KATHLEEN K · award · $6,226,330
OBERG KATHLEEN K · sell · $1,181,361
OBERG KATHLEEN K · exercise · $2,021,097
OBERG KATHLEEN K · sell · $673,568
BRELAND BENJAMIN T · sell · $250,140
BROWN WILLIAM P · award · $1,930,772
BROWN WILLIAM P · sell · $567,783
BROWN WILLIAM P · exercise · $407,430
PINTO DREW · sell · $280,719
MARRIOTT DAVID SHEETS · other
ROE PEGGY FANG · sell · $828,390
REISS RENA HOZORE · sell · $962,865
LEE FELITIA · sell · $253,256
BRELAND BENJAMIN T · sell · $137,245
LEWIS AYLWIN B · award · $3,625
LEWIS AYLWIN B · award · $3,625
HENDERSON FREDERICK A · award
SCHWAB SUSAN C · award
LEE DEBRA L · award
REID GRANT F · award
HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT · award
GOREN ISABELLA D. · award
LEWIS AYLWIN B · award
ROZANSKI HORACIO · award
HOBART LAUREN R · award
MCCARTHY MARGARET M · award
HARRISON DEBORAH MARRIOTT · exercise · $627,300
5 signals · latest 4d ago
Get alerted when MAR changes direction
We'll email you when our AI detects a shift — reversals, insider clusters, filing red flags.