ARES likely to sell off on earnings; estimates cut, insiders selling
Expected move: 6–12% from event-day close
Full thesis
ARES faces a high-probability sell-the-news event. Estimates have been revised down 6.2%, analysts are 0 up / 6 down in recent period, and insiders have sold $104.3M in the past 90 days (including $33.1M by Antony Ressler). The stock has rallied 13.78% in one week to reach its 52-week high, creating mean reversion risk and suggesting the market has already priced in a beat. With a P/E of 68.0 and 13 bearish vs 1 bullish signal in 72h, downside risk is asymmetric.
ARES Earnings
Friday, May 01 2026
EPS Estimate
$1.37
$1.14 – $1.53
Revenue Estimate
$1.2B
Current Price
$117.78
Data Signal Summary
1 bullish
3 bearish
Estimates down -6%
Insider buying cluster
Put/call 1.6 (bearish skew)
Price downtrend
Key Context
Analyst Consensus
mixed
Insider Activity
selling
Price Trend
downtrend
From 52w High
-1.3%
P/E Ratio
68.0
Est. Revisions (30d)
-6.2% 0up/6dn
Analyst Target (mean)
$147 $104–$205 +25%
Options P/C Ratio
1.63
Est. Dispersion
21% 13 analysts
Insider Cluster
buy cluster
Fund Convergence
strong D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Bridgewater
Recent Activity
insider trades
119 transactions
Buy
·
OLIAN JUDY D. (Director)
·480 shares
·$59,726
Buy
·
BHUTANI ASHISH (Director)
·10,000 shares
·$1,266,100
Sell
·
SAGATI AGHILI NASEEM (General Counsel)
·3,921 shares
·$529,032
Award
·
DEVEER ROBERT KIPP III (President)
·200,000 shares
Award
·
SAGATI AGHILI NASEEM (General Counsel)
·100,000 shares
114 more
Award
·
PHILLIPS JARROD
·100,000 shr
Award
·
JACOBSON BLAIR VICTOR
·300,000 shr
Award
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·200,000 shr
Sell
·
SAGATI AGHILI NASEEM
·1,849 shr
·$299,239
Award
·
SAGATI AGHILI NASEEM
·2,712 shr
Award
·
PHILLIPS JARROD
·2,712 shr
Other
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·40,000 shr
Other
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·15,000 shr
Other
·
SAGATI AGHILI NASEEM
·500 shr
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·290,997 shr
·$45,274,799
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·299,003 shr
·$45,380,330
Other
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·590,000 shr
Sell
·
SAGATI AGHILI NASEEM
·21,000 shr
·$3,275,370
Sell
·
SAGATI AGHILI NASEEM
·21,000 shr
·$3,746,321
Sell
·
RESSLER ANTONY P
·128,837 shr
·$22,971,970
Sell
·
RESSLER ANTONY P
·271,741 shr
·$47,742,182
Sell
·
RESSLER ANTONY P
·464,939 shr
·$82,605,017
Sell
·
RESSLER ANTONY P
·278,961 shr
·$49,896,005
Sell
·
RESSLER ANTONY P
·280,060 shr
·$50,528,376
Sell
·
RESSLER ANTONY P
·308,719 shr
·$55,114,999
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·44,760 shr
·$7,975,789
Sell
·
RESSLER ANTONY P
·266,743 shr
·$47,915,943
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·266,968 shr
·$47,957,144
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·278,272 shr
·$51,725,056
Other
·
RESSLER ANTONY P
·700,000 shr
Other
·
JACOBSON BLAIR VICTOR
·8,000 shr
Award
·
OLIAN JUDY D.
·1,166 shr
Award
·
BUSH ANTOINETTE COOK
·1,166 shr
Award
·
LYNTON MICHAEL M
·1,166 shr
Award
·
BHUTANI ASHISH
·1,166 shr
Award
·
NAUGHTON EILEEN
·1,166 shr
Award
·
JOUBERT PAUL G
·1,166 shr
Sell
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·85,000 shr
·$14,347,484
Sell
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·33,145 shr
·$5,472,902
Sell
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·29,355 shr
·$4,845,343
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·257,500 shr
·$42,299,762
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·332,500 shr
·$56,406,351
Sell
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·62,500 shr
·$10,584,827
Sell
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·40,000 shr
·$6,774,878
Other
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·125,000 shr
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·110,845 shr
·$16,977,649
Buy
·
BHUTANI ASHISH
·10,000 shr
·$1,413,300
Sell
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·100,000 shr
·$16,098,997
Sell
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·100,000 shr
·$16,100,103
Other
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·100,000 shr
Other
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·100,000 shr
Sell
·
DEVEER ROBERT KIPP III
·78,933 shr
·$14,998,894
Award
·
BERRY RYAN
·40,000 shr
Award
·
DEVEER ROBERT KIPP III
·250,000 shr
Award
·
SAGATI AGHILI NASEEM
·25,000 shr
Award
·
PHILLIPS JARROD
·70,000 shr
Award
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·250,000 shr
Award
·
SAGATI AGHILI NASEEM
·1,827 shr
Award
·
PHILLIPS JARROD
·1,938 shr
Other
·
OLIAN JUDY D.
·397 shr
Sell
·
BERRY RYAN
·14,557 shr
·$2,622,571
Sell
·
DEVEER ROBERT KIPP III
·300,000 shr
·$53,146,778
Sell
·
BERRY RYAN
·5,443 shr
·$980,502
Sell
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·30,680 shr
·$5,404,447
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·30,465 shr
·$5,366,612
Sell
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·29,107 shr
·$5,127,237
Sell
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·85,668 shr
·$15,195,297
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·85,736 shr
·$15,206,846
Sell
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·85,860 shr
·$15,229,437
Sell
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·78,061 shr
·$13,575,309
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·77,353 shr
·$13,454,008
Sell
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·78,604 shr
·$13,671,865
Sell
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·55,591 shr
·$9,344,356
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·56,446 shr
·$9,488,457
Sell
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·56,429 shr
·$9,485,894
Other
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·250,000 shr
Other
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·250,000 shr
Other
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·250,000 shr
Other
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·30,000 shr
Other
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·29,000 shr
Sell
·
BERRY RYAN
·1,671 shr
·$292,425
Other
·
RESSLER ANTONY P
·300,000 shr
Sell
·
BERRY RYAN
·18,329 shr
·$3,210,874
Sell
·
BERRY RYAN
·40,000 shr
·$6,719,793
Sell
·
BERRY RYAN
·20,000 shr
·$3,201,400
Sell
·
BERRY RYAN
·50,000 shr
·$7,664,883
Sell
·
BERRY RYAN
·32,500 shr
·$4,766,691
Sell
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·75,000 shr
·$10,728,918
Sell
·
BERRY RYAN
·67,500 shr
·$9,513,892
Sell
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·26,579 shr
·$3,791,691
Sell
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·55,762 shr
·$8,104,234
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·55,723 shr
·$8,099,471
Sell
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·48,421 shr
·$7,049,630
Sell
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·80,846 shr
·$11,858,291
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·81,247 shr
·$11,916,861
Sell
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·54,726 shr
·$7,892,108
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·54,576 shr
·$7,870,440
Sell
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·41,508 shr
·$5,985,756
Sell
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·58,666 shr
·$8,517,974
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·58,454 shr
·$8,487,181
Sell
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·58,492 shr
·$8,492,699
Other
·
DEVEER ROBERT KIPP III
·300,000 shr
Award
·
OLIAN JUDY D.
·1,173 shr
Award
·
BUSH ANTOINETTE COOK
·1,173 shr
Award
·
LYNTON MICHAEL M
·1,173 shr
Award
·
BHUTANI ASHISH
·1,173 shr
Award
·
NAUGHTON EILEEN
·1,173 shr
Award
·
JOUBERT PAUL G
·1,173 shr
Sell
·
DEVEER ROBERT KIPP III
·41,676 shr
·$6,260,152
Sell
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·125,000 shr
·$16,492,637
Sell
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·150,000 shr
·$19,790,618
Sell
·
OLIAN JUDY D.
·3,417 shr
·$457,865
Sell
·
KAPLAN DAVID B
·125,000 shr
·$17,511,466
Sell
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·100,000 shr
·$14,041,185
Other
·
RESSLER ANTONY P
·749,000 shr
Sell
·
AROUGHETI MICHAEL J
·250,000 shr
·$37,006,688
Sell
·
RESSLER ANTONY P
·143,569 shr
·$18,880,987
Sell
·
RESSLER ANTONY P
·254,557 shr
·$33,101,095
Sell
·
ROSENTHAL BENNETT
·50,000 shr
·$6,485,848
analyst ratings
1 rating
Oppenheimer
→Outperform
5d ago
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