APA beats on 67% estimate revisions, insider buying, cheap valuation
Expected move: 5–9% from event-day close
Full thesis
APA is positioned for a strong earnings beat driven by 67% upward estimate revisions and unanimous analyst bullishness (15up/0down). Insiders have bought $774k in the last 90 days, signaling conviction. The stock is down 14.8% from 52w high with a cheap 9.7 P/E, creating margin of safety. Sell-the-news probability is only 35%, well below the 55% threshold, indicating the market is not positioned for a selloff. Recent 1w weakness has reset sentiment and lowered the bar for a beat.
APA Earnings
Wednesday, May 06 2026
EPS Estimate
$1.10
$0.69 – $1.59
Revenue Estimate
$2.2B
Current Price
$35.97
Data Signal Summary
3 bullish
1 bearish
Estimates up +62%
Insider buying cluster
Put/call 0.1 (bullish skew)
Price downtrend
Key Context
Analyst Consensus
mixed
Insider Activity
buying
Price Trend
downtrend
From 52w High
-16.3%
P/E Ratio
9.0
Est. Revisions (30d)
+62.1% 15up/0dn
Analyst Target (mean)
$40 $26–$56 +12%
Options P/C Ratio
0.13 1C/0P unusual
Est. Dispersion
82% 23 analysts
Insider Cluster
buy cluster
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Renaissance, Two Sigma, D.E. Shaw
Recent Activity
insider trades
125 transactions
Other
·
BRETCHES D. CLAY (Officer)
·20,760 shares
Award
·
MCKAY LAMAR (Director)
·1,767 shares
Award
·
HOOPER CHARLES W. (Director)
·1,178 shares
Award
·
WEAVING ANYA (Director)
·1,178 shares
Award
·
BAY ANNELL R (Director)
·1,178 shares
120 more
Award
·
RAGAUSS PETER A
·1,178 shr
Award
·
FISHER KENNETH M
·1,178 shr
Award
·
BOB MATTHEW REGIS
·1,178 shr
Award
·
ELLIS JULIET S.
·1,178 shr
Award
·
STOVER DAVID L
·1,178 shr
Award
·
JOUNG CHANSOO
·1,178 shr
Sell
·
BOB MATTHEW REGIS
·23,000 shr
·$833,373
Other
·
MADDOX MARK D
·6,158 shr
Other
·
HENDERSON TRACEY K
·6,158 shr
Other
·
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV
·4,314 shr
Other
·
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV
·26,717 shr
Other
·
RINEY STEPHEN J
·15,202 shr
Other
·
WARNICA KIMBERLY O
·5,981 shr
Other
·
RODGERS BEN C
·4,222 shr
Other
·
MADDOX MARK D
·15,374 shr
Other
·
HENDERSON TRACEY K
·18,682 shr
Other
·
RAYPHOLE ROBERT P.
·720 shr
Other
·
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV
·72,170 shr
Other
·
RINEY STEPHEN J
·33,950 shr
Other
·
RODGERS BEN C
·11,312 shr
Other
·
RAYPHOLE ROBERT P.
·3,768 shr
Other
·
MADDOX MARK D
·8,030 shr
Other
·
HENDERSON TRACEY K
·8,647 shr
Other
·
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV
·37,513 shr
Other
·
RINEY STEPHEN J
·21,345 shr
Other
·
RODGERS BEN C
·5,929 shr
Other
·
MADDOX MARK D
·26,424 shr
Other
·
HENDERSON TRACEY K
·26,748 shr
Other
·
RAYPHOLE ROBERT P.
·2,548 shr
Other
·
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV
·128,269 shr
Other
·
RINEY STEPHEN J
·60,342 shr
Other
·
RODGERS BEN C
·19,330 shr
Exercise
·
MCKAY LAMAR
·3,066 shr
·$74,994
Exercise
·
HOOPER CHARLES W.
·2,044 shr
·$49,996
Exercise
·
WEAVING ANYA
·2,044 shr
·$49,996
Exercise
·
BAY ANNELL R
·2,044 shr
·$49,996
Exercise
·
RAGAUSS PETER A
·2,044 shr
·$49,996
Exercise
·
FISHER KENNETH M
·2,044 shr
·$49,996
Exercise
·
BOB MATTHEW REGIS
·2,044 shr
·$49,996
Exercise
·
ELLIS JULIET S.
·2,044 shr
·$49,996
Exercise
·
STOVER DAVID L
·2,044 shr
·$49,996
Exercise
·
JOUNG CHANSOO
·2,044 shr
·$49,996
Other
·
RINEY STEPHEN J
·18,888 shr
Exercise
·
MCKAY LAMAR
·3,088 shr
·$74,977
Exercise
·
HOOPER CHARLES W.
·2,059 shr
·$49,993
Exercise
·
WEAVING ANYA
·2,059 shr
·$49,993
Exercise
·
BAY ANNELL R
·2,059 shr
·$49,993
Exercise
·
RAGAUSS PETER A
·2,059 shr
·$49,993
Exercise
·
FISHER KENNETH M
·2,059 shr
·$49,993
Exercise
·
BOB MATTHEW REGIS
·2,059 shr
·$49,993
Exercise
·
ELLIS JULIET S.
·2,059 shr
·$49,993
Exercise
·
STOVER DAVID L
·2,059 shr
·$49,993
Exercise
·
JOUNG CHANSOO
·2,059 shr
·$49,993
Exercise
·
MCKAY LAMAR
·4,099 shr
·$74,971
Exercise
·
HOOPER CHARLES W.
·2,733 shr
·$49,987
Exercise
·
WEAVING ANYA
·2,733 shr
·$49,987
Exercise
·
BAY ANNELL R
·2,733 shr
·$49,987
Exercise
·
RAGAUSS PETER A
·2,733 shr
·$49,987
Exercise
·
FISHER KENNETH M
·2,733 shr
·$49,987
Exercise
·
BOB MATTHEW REGIS
·2,733 shr
·$49,987
Exercise
·
ELLIS JULIET S.
·2,733 shr
·$49,987
Exercise
·
STOVER DAVID L
·2,733 shr
·$49,987
Exercise
·
JOUNG CHANSOO
·2,733 shr
·$49,987
Other
·
HENDERSON TRACEY K
·5,000 shr
Buy
·
JOUNG CHANSOO
·75,000 shr
·$1,368,615
Exercise
·
MCKAY LAMAR
·3,567 shr
·$74,978
Exercise
·
HOOPER CHARLES W.
·2,378 shr
·$49,986
Exercise
·
WEAVING ANYA
·2,378 shr
·$49,986
Exercise
·
BAY ANNELL R
·2,378 shr
·$49,986
Exercise
·
RAGAUSS PETER A
·2,378 shr
·$49,986
Exercise
·
FISHER KENNETH M
·2,378 shr
·$49,986
Exercise
·
BOB MATTHEW REGIS
·2,378 shr
·$49,986
Exercise
·
ELLIS JULIET S.
·2,378 shr
·$49,986
Exercise
·
STOVER DAVID L
·2,378 shr
·$49,986
Exercise
·
JOUNG CHANSOO
·2,378 shr
·$49,986
Other
·
MADDOX MARK D
·20,729 shr
Other
·
HENDERSON TRACEY K
·19,826 shr
Other
·
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV
·101,539 shr
Other
·
HOYT REBECCA A
·17,124 shr
Other
·
RINEY STEPHEN J
·47,765 shr
Other
·
BRETCHES D. CLAY
·32,445 shr
Other
·
MADDOX MARK D
·8,028 shr
Other
·
HENDERSON TRACEY K
·8,646 shr
Other
·
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV
·5,196 shr
Other
·
HOYT REBECCA A
·5,750 shr
Other
·
BRETCHES D. CLAY
·10,672 shr
Other
·
MADDOX MARK D
·13,500 shr
Other
·
HENDERSON TRACEY K
·14,388 shr
Other
·
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV
·64,975 shr
Other
·
HOYT REBECCA A
·11,052 shr
Other
·
RINEY STEPHEN J
·30,563 shr
Exercise
·
JOUNG CHANSOO
·1,698 shr
·$49,989
Other
·
HENDERSON TRACEY K
·15,742 shr
Exercise
·
MCKAY LAMAR
·3,247 shr
·$74,973
Exercise
·
HOOPER CHARLES W.
·2,165 shr
·$49,990
Other
·
MADDOX MARK D
·35,076 shr
Other
·
HENDERSON TRACEY K
·28,400 shr
Exercise
·
WEAVING ANYA
·2,165 shr
·$49,990
Exercise
·
BAY ANNELL R
·2,165 shr
·$49,990
Other
·
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV
·202,502 shr
Exercise
·
RAGAUSS PETER A
·2,165 shr
·$49,990
Other
·
HOYT REBECCA A
·31,045 shr
Exercise
·
FISHER KENNETH M
·1,624 shr
·$37,498
Exercise
·
BOB MATTHEW REGIS
·2,165 shr
·$49,990
Other
·
RINEY STEPHEN J
·86,600 shr
Exercise
·
ELLIS JULIET S.
·2,165 shr
·$49,990
Other
·
BRETCHES D. CLAY
·49,018 shr
Exercise
·
STOVER DAVID L
·2,165 shr
·$49,990
Exercise
·
JOUNG CHANSOO
·2,165 shr
·$49,990
Other
·
RINEY STEPHEN J
·23,041 shr
Buy
·
ELLIS JULIET S.
·4,391 shr
·$100,027
Other
·
HOYT REBECCA A
·462 shr
Exercise
·
MCKAY LAMAR
·2,547 shr
·$74,984
Exercise
·
HOOPER CHARLES W.
·1,698 shr
·$49,989
Exercise
·
WEAVING ANYA
·1,698 shr
·$49,989
Exercise
·
BAY ANNELL R
·1,698 shr
·$49,989
Exercise
·
RAGAUSS PETER A
·1,698 shr
·$49,989
Exercise
·
BOB MATTHEW REGIS
·1,698 shr
·$49,989
Exercise
·
ELLIS JULIET S.
·1,698 shr
·$49,989
Exercise
·
STOVER DAVID L
·1,698 shr
·$49,989
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