APA APA Corporation

track record → $35.97 +0.23 (+0.6%) +0.6% since call
Get emailed when APA changes direction
Mkt Cap $13B P/E 9.0 fwd 9.4 52wk $15.15 - $45.66
Factor Model (net +3.0)

Factor Model

net +3.0
Est. Revisions
+1.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.0
Analyst Rev.
+1.0
Narrative Gap
+0.0

Analysis pending — waiting for first signal cycle.

$35.74 2026-04-20

Event Predictions

bullish APA Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-05-06
16d

APA beats on 67% estimate revisions, insider buying, cheap valuation

+0.6% $35.74 → $35.97
Thesis

APA is positioned for a strong earnings beat driven by 67% upward estimate revisions and unanimous analyst bullishness (15up/0down). Insiders have bought $774k in the last 90 days, signaling conviction. The stock is down 14.8% from 52w high with a cheap 9.7 P/E, creating margin of safety. Sell-the-news probability is only 35%, well below the 55% threshold, indicating the market is not positioned for a selloff. Recent 1w weakness has reset sentiment and lowered the bar for a beat.

Evidence

Fundamentals & Data ▾
APA Corporation Energy · Oil & Gas E&P
Mkt Cap
$13B
P/E
9.0 fwd 9.4
Beta
0.48
Div Yield
280.00%
52w Range
$15.15 - $45.66
Short Interest
28.5M 10.6%
Days to Cover
2.8 -17%
Technicals downtrend
from 52w Hi
-16.3%
1w return
-8.9%
Insiders
buying 1B / 0S
Analysts
mixed
EPS Estimate
$1.14 +64.1% 30d 13up / 0dn
Est. Dispersion
66% 22 analysts
Analyst Target
$41 $26 - $56
Options P/C
0.10 1C / 0P unusual
Insider Cluster
buy cluster 2B / 1S
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Renaissance, Two Sigma, D.E. Shaw
Financials
Revenue
$2.0B -27% YoY
FCF
$218M
Gross Margin
43%
Op Margin
32%
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $57M
Renaissance $28M
Two Sigma $6M
D.E. Shaw $4M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 125
net buying · $833,373 sold · $1,468,642 bought
19 insiders · 125 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
BRETCHES D. CLAY · other
MCKAY LAMAR · award
HOOPER CHARLES W. · award
WEAVING ANYA · award
BAY ANNELL R · award
RAGAUSS PETER A · award
FISHER KENNETH M · award
BOB MATTHEW REGIS · award
ELLIS JULIET S. · award
STOVER DAVID L · award
JOUNG CHANSOO · award
BOB MATTHEW REGIS · sell · $833,373
MADDOX MARK D · other
HENDERSON TRACEY K · other
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV · other
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV · other
RINEY STEPHEN J · other
WARNICA KIMBERLY O · other
RODGERS BEN C · other
MADDOX MARK D · other
HENDERSON TRACEY K · other
RAYPHOLE ROBERT P. · other
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV · other
RINEY STEPHEN J · other
RODGERS BEN C · other
RAYPHOLE ROBERT P. · other
MADDOX MARK D · other
HENDERSON TRACEY K · other
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV · other
RINEY STEPHEN J · other
RODGERS BEN C · other
MADDOX MARK D · other
HENDERSON TRACEY K · other
RAYPHOLE ROBERT P. · other
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV · other
RINEY STEPHEN J · other
RODGERS BEN C · other
MCKAY LAMAR · exercise · $74,994
HOOPER CHARLES W. · exercise · $49,996
WEAVING ANYA · exercise · $49,996
BAY ANNELL R · exercise · $49,996
RAGAUSS PETER A · exercise · $49,996
FISHER KENNETH M · exercise · $49,996
BOB MATTHEW REGIS · exercise · $49,996
ELLIS JULIET S. · exercise · $49,996
STOVER DAVID L · exercise · $49,996
JOUNG CHANSOO · exercise · $49,996
RINEY STEPHEN J · other
MCKAY LAMAR · exercise · $74,977
HOOPER CHARLES W. · exercise · $49,993
WEAVING ANYA · exercise · $49,993
BAY ANNELL R · exercise · $49,993
RAGAUSS PETER A · exercise · $49,993
FISHER KENNETH M · exercise · $49,993
BOB MATTHEW REGIS · exercise · $49,993
ELLIS JULIET S. · exercise · $49,993
STOVER DAVID L · exercise · $49,993
JOUNG CHANSOO · exercise · $49,993
MCKAY LAMAR · exercise · $74,971
HOOPER CHARLES W. · exercise · $49,987
WEAVING ANYA · exercise · $49,987
BAY ANNELL R · exercise · $49,987
RAGAUSS PETER A · exercise · $49,987
FISHER KENNETH M · exercise · $49,987
BOB MATTHEW REGIS · exercise · $49,987
ELLIS JULIET S. · exercise · $49,987
STOVER DAVID L · exercise · $49,987
JOUNG CHANSOO · exercise · $49,987
HENDERSON TRACEY K · other
JOUNG CHANSOO · buy · $1,368,615
MCKAY LAMAR · exercise · $74,978
HOOPER CHARLES W. · exercise · $49,986
WEAVING ANYA · exercise · $49,986
BAY ANNELL R · exercise · $49,986
RAGAUSS PETER A · exercise · $49,986
FISHER KENNETH M · exercise · $49,986
BOB MATTHEW REGIS · exercise · $49,986
ELLIS JULIET S. · exercise · $49,986
STOVER DAVID L · exercise · $49,986
JOUNG CHANSOO · exercise · $49,986
MADDOX MARK D · other
HENDERSON TRACEY K · other
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV · other
HOYT REBECCA A · other
RINEY STEPHEN J · other
BRETCHES D. CLAY · other
MADDOX MARK D · other
HENDERSON TRACEY K · other
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV · other
HOYT REBECCA A · other
BRETCHES D. CLAY · other
MADDOX MARK D · other
HENDERSON TRACEY K · other
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV · other
HOYT REBECCA A · other
RINEY STEPHEN J · other
JOUNG CHANSOO · exercise · $49,989
HENDERSON TRACEY K · other
MCKAY LAMAR · exercise · $74,973
HOOPER CHARLES W. · exercise · $49,990
MADDOX MARK D · other
HENDERSON TRACEY K · other
WEAVING ANYA · exercise · $49,990
BAY ANNELL R · exercise · $49,990
CHRISTMANN JOHN J IV · other
RAGAUSS PETER A · exercise · $49,990
HOYT REBECCA A · other
FISHER KENNETH M · exercise · $37,498
BOB MATTHEW REGIS · exercise · $49,990
RINEY STEPHEN J · other
ELLIS JULIET S. · exercise · $49,990
BRETCHES D. CLAY · other
STOVER DAVID L · exercise · $49,990
JOUNG CHANSOO · exercise · $49,990
RINEY STEPHEN J · other
ELLIS JULIET S. · buy · $100,027
HOYT REBECCA A · other
MCKAY LAMAR · exercise · $74,984
HOOPER CHARLES W. · exercise · $49,989
WEAVING ANYA · exercise · $49,989
BAY ANNELL R · exercise · $49,989
RAGAUSS PETER A · exercise · $49,989
BOB MATTHEW REGIS · exercise · $49,989
ELLIS JULIET S. · exercise · $49,989
STOVER DAVID L · exercise · $49,989
event: +0.6% | 15 signals · latest 1d ago

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