UAL
bearish medium
UAL Earnings
· 2026-04-14
· earnings
UAL earnings likely to disappoint; downward revisions and sector headwinds persist
UAL faces a convergence of bearish signals ahead of Q1 earnings: analysts have downgraded 8 times vs 1 upgrade (11% bullish), estimates are revised down 12.8%, and the stock is down 15.9% in 1 month with a narrative-data divergence suggesting the bullish case is ahead of reality. Fuel price headwinds are pinching consumer budgets, directly threatening airline demand. While the sell-the-news probability is low (30%) due to reset expectations, there is minimal upside surprise potential and significant downside risk if UAL misses on revenue or guidance.
Price Convergence
Baseline
$—
2026-03-31
Model
agent-v1
prediction #96
Created
Mar 31, 14:02
Agent Rubric Scores
Price Momentum
-2
Insider Activity
+0
Signal Consensus
-1
Analyst Sentiment
-2
Valuation Context
+1
Past Event Reactions
+0
Total
-4
Agent Research Trace
I'll research UAL ahead of the 2026-04-14 earnings date. Let me gather the necessary data.
compute_event_features
{"ticker": "UAL"}
query_peer_reactions
{"ticker": "UAL"}
query_factor_model
{"ticker": "UAL"}
query_price_history
{"ticker": "UAL"}
query_structured_data
{"ticker": "UAL"}
query_entity_signals
{"ticker": "UAL"}
query_past_predictions
{"ticker": "UAL"}
Edge analysis (compute_event_features)
=== PRICE MOMENTUM === Returns: 1w -13.39%, 1m -15.9%, 3m -15.13% From 52w high: -21.66% Volatility (20d): 66.9% === HISTORICAL EARNINGS REACTIONS === No earnings history available. === INSIDER ACTIVITY === No insider data. === SHORT INTEREST === No short interest data. === SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY (computed) === Base rate: 40% of earnings beats sell off -10% (down -16% in 1m, low expectations) ESTIMATED SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY: 30% Risk level: LOW === PRICED-IN RISK SCORE === Priced-in risk: 0.10 (LOW) - High vol (66.9%) === EDGE ANALYSIS === Market-adjusted: underperforming SPY by 11.7% (1w) MEAN REVERSION: stock moved -13.39% in 1 week Extreme moves tend to partially reverse — 30-40% mean reversion over days 2-5
query_peer_reactions result
=== PEER REACTIONS (Airlines) === No recent peer earnings data.
query_factor_model result
=== FACTOR MODEL (quantitative baseline) === estimate_revisions: -0.693 — Estimates revised down 12.8% (raw: -12.8) insider_activity: +0.000 — No insider data price_momentum: -0.868 — DOWN 15.9% in 1m — negative momentum (raw: -15.9) analyst_revisions: -0.915 — Revisions 1up/8down (11% bullish) (raw
query_price_history result
Close: $92.07 (2026-03-06) Returns: 1w -13.39%, 1m -15.9%, 3m -15.13% Volatility (20d): 66.9% MA20: $109.21 (-15.69%), MA50: $110.41 (-16.61%) 52w range: $73.33 - $117.53 (-21.66% from high) Trend: downtrend
query_structured_data result
Insiders: no data Analysts: no data Earnings history: no data Valuation/SI: P/E: 8.8, Mkt cap: $29B
query_entity_signals result
Signals (72h): 1 total — 0 bullish, 1 bearish, 0 neutral Top headlines: [cnbc-economy] New fees, fewer flights: Higher fuel prices pinch consumer budgets beyond the gas pump
query_past_predictions result
Overall accuracy: 0/0 (n/a) No scored predictions for UAL yet.
Now let me analyze this data systematically.
## DATA SUMMARY
**Price Momentum:**
- Down 13.39% in 1 week, -15.9% in 1 month, -15.13% in 3 months
- 21.66% below 52-week high ($92.07 vs $117.53)
- Volatility: 66.9% (very high)
- Trading below MA20 ($109.21) and MA50 ($110.41)
- Trend: downtrend
**Event Features:**
- **Sell-the-news probability: 30% (LOW)** — stock already down 16% in 1m, expectations reset
- **Priced-in risk: 0.10 (LOW)**
- **Mean reversion signal:** Extreme 1-week move (-13.39...
submit_prediction
{"catalyst": "Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-14", "headline": "UAL earnings likely to disappoint; downward revisions and sector headwinds persist", "rubric_scores": {"analyst_sentiment": -2, "insider_activity": 0, "past_event_reactions": 0, "price_momentum": -2, "signal_consensus": -1, "valuation_context": 1}, "thesis": "UAL faces a convergence of bearish signals ahead of Q1 earnings: analysts have downgraded 8 times vs 1 upgrade (11% bullish), estimates are revised down 12.8%, and the stock is down 15.9% in 1 month with a narrative-data divergence suggesting the bullish case is ahead of reality. Fuel price headwinds are pinching consumer budgets, directly threatening airline demand. While the sell-the-news probability is low (30%) due to reset expectations, there is minimal upside surprise potential and significant downside risk if UAL misses on revenue or guidance."}
Refinement Chain (3 predictions)
Price Trajectory
Mar 30
$85.21
Mar 31
$92.07
Apr 1
$95.08
Apr 2
$92.21
Apr 6
$90.97
Apr 7
$89.29
Apr 8
$96.30
Apr 9
$97.67
Apr 10
$96.40
Apr 13
$95.20
Apr 14
$97.20
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