UAL
bearish medium
UAL Earnings
· 2026-04-14
· earnings
UAL faces analyst headwinds; momentum deeply negative
UAL has declined 15.9% in 1 month with analyst consensus heavily bearish (1 up, 8 down) and estimates revised down 12.8%. The stock trades 21.66% below its 52-week high and below both MA20 and MA50, signaling a clear downtrend. While the low sell-the-news probability (30%) and depressed P/E (8.8) offer some upside optionality, the narrative-data gap (-1.6) suggests bullish sentiment is ahead of deteriorating fundamentals. Earnings are likely to disappoint relative to the already-reset expectations.
Price Convergence
Baseline
$92.21
2026-04-03
Est. move
3–7%
bearish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #106
Created
Apr 3, 14:02
Agent Rubric Scores
Price Momentum
-2
Insider Activity
+0
Signal Consensus
+0
Analyst Sentiment
-2
Valuation Context
+1
Past Event Reactions
+0
Total
-3
Agent Research Trace
I'll research UAL ahead of the April 14, 2026 earnings. Let me gather the necessary data.
compute_event_features
{"ticker": "UAL"}
query_peer_reactions
{"ticker": "UAL"}
query_factor_model
{"ticker": "UAL"}
query_price_history
{"ticker": "UAL"}
query_structured_data
{"ticker": "UAL"}
query_entity_signals
{"ticker": "UAL"}
query_past_predictions
{"ticker": "UAL"}
Edge analysis (compute_event_features)
=== PRICE MOMENTUM === Returns: 1w -13.39%, 1m -15.9%, 3m -15.13% From 52w high: -21.66% Volatility (20d): 66.9% === HISTORICAL EARNINGS REACTIONS === No earnings history available. === INSIDER ACTIVITY === No insider data. === SHORT INTEREST === No short interest data. === SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY (computed) === Base rate: 40% of earnings beats sell off -10% (down -16% in 1m, low expectations) ESTIMATED SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY: 30% Risk level: LOW === PRICED-IN RISK SCORE === Priced-in risk: 0.10 (LOW) - High vol (66.9%) === EDGE ANALYSIS === Market-adjusted: underperforming SPY by 13.8% (1w) MEAN REVERSION: stock moved -13.39% in 1 week Extreme moves tend to partially reverse — 30-40% mean reversion over days 2-5
query_peer_reactions result
=== PEER REACTIONS (Airlines) === No recent peer earnings data.
query_factor_model result
=== FACTOR MODEL (quantitative baseline) === estimate_revisions: -0.693 — Estimates revised down 12.8% (raw: -12.8) insider_activity: +0.000 — No insider data price_momentum: -0.868 — DOWN 15.9% in 1m — negative momentum (raw: -15.9) analyst_revisions: -0.915 — Revisions 1up/8down (11% bullish) (raw
query_price_history result
Close: $92.07 (2026-03-06) Returns: 1w -13.39%, 1m -15.9%, 3m -15.13% Volatility (20d): 66.9% MA20: $109.21 (-15.69%), MA50: $110.41 (-16.61%) 52w range: $73.33 - $117.53 (-21.66% from high) Trend: downtrend
query_structured_data result
Insiders: no data Analysts: no data Earnings history: no data Valuation/SI: P/E: 8.8, Mkt cap: $29B
query_entity_signals result
No signals for UAL in last 72 hours.
query_past_predictions result
Overall accuracy: 1/1 (100%) No scored predictions for UAL yet.
Now let me analyze this data systematically.
## DATA SUMMARY
**Price Momentum:**
- Down 13.39% in 1 week, down 15.9% in 1 month, down 15.13% in 3 months
- 21.66% below 52-week high ($92.07 vs $117.53)
- Trading below MA20 ($109.21) and MA50 ($110.41)
- Volatility: 66.9% (elevated)
- Trend: downtrend
**Quantitative Model Signal:**
- Total score: -3.47 → **bearish/high conviction**
- Key drivers:
- Estimate revisions: -0.69 (down 12.8%)
- Price momentum: -0.87 (down 15.9% in 1m)
- Analyst...
submit_prediction
{"catalyst": "Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-14", "headline": "UAL faces analyst headwinds; momentum deeply negative", "rubric_scores": {"analyst_sentiment": -2, "insider_activity": 0, "past_event_reactions": 0, "price_momentum": -2, "signal_consensus": 0, "valuation_context": 1}, "thesis": "UAL has declined 15.9% in 1 month with analyst consensus heavily bearish (1 up, 8 down) and estimates revised down 12.8%. The stock trades 21.66% below its 52-week high and below both MA20 and MA50, signaling a clear downtrend. While the low sell-the-news probability (30%) and depressed P/E (8.8) offer some upside optionality, the narrative-data gap (-1.6) suggests bullish sentiment is ahead of deteriorating fundamentals. Earnings are likely to disappoint relative to the already-reset expectations."}
Refinement Chain (3 predictions)
Price Trajectory
Mar 31
$92.07
Apr 1
$95.08
Apr 2
$92.21
Apr 6
$90.97
Apr 7
$89.29
Apr 8
$96.30
Apr 9
$97.67
Apr 10
$96.40
Apr 13
$95.20
Apr 14
$97.20
Explore more