RKLB Rocket Lab Corporation

bullish · high conviction 3/5 shifts correct ↓ $143.48 -4.55 (-3.1%)
Mkt Cap $83B 52wk $25.24 - $151.00 Earnings beating 16h ago
r/
Reddit bullish 13 mentions, 7d
7 bullish · 1 bearish · 5 neutral
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
MEDIUM
Language Changes

Backlog increased from $1,067 million (with $681 million space systems, $386 million launch) to $1,847 million (with $1,372 million space systems, $476 million launch). This indicates growth in contracted future revenues, highlighting business expansion.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-26
MEDIUM
Language Changes

The current filing elaborates on variable consideration methods, estimates of transaction price including probability threshold, and discusses cumulative catch-up adjustments impacting revenues which was less detailed or absent in prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-26
HIGH
Dollar Amount Changes

The prior filing reports $355 million principal outstanding on 12/31/2024, with $9.6 million unamortized discounts and costs. The current filing shows $155.7 million principal outstanding on 12/31/2025, with $3.3 million unamortized costs, reflecting debt repayments or conversions during 2025.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-26
HIGH
New Items Added

Unlike the prior filing which ended at 2024 data, the current filing provides comprehensive financial results for 2025 with key metrics like $601.8 million revenue (38% increase from 2024), revenue by segment, increased costs including R&D and SG&A, backlog increasing to $1.85 billion, and detailed cash flow and liquidity analysis. This provides material updated financial context not in the prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-26
HIGH
Language Changes

The current filing adds mention of spacecraft manufacturing and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions, listing additional acquisition of GEOST not present before. The prior filing referenced only Sinclair Interplanetary, Planetary Systems Corporation, SolAero Technologies Corp., and Advanced Solutions, Incorporated. This indicates growth and expansion in space systems capabilities and markets.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-26
MEDIUM
Language Changes

In the prior filing, Neutron's payload capacity was described as approximately 15,000 kg for expendable launches and lighter payloads for reusable configurations. The current filing states approximately 13,000 kg for reusable configuration launches to low Earth orbit, with no mention of expendable launches. This reduces the stated payload capacity and changes the emphasis towards reusable configuration.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-26
HIGH
New Items Added

The current filing mentions an unanticipated failure during qualification testing of the first stage tank in January 2026 impacting the timing of Neutron's first launch, now targeted for Q4 2026, whereas the prior filing expected the first launch in the second half of 2025. This reflects a significant schedule delay and technical challenge in Neutron development, which was not described in the prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-26
MEDIUM
Material language changes

The current filing consistently refers to the CEO as "Sir Peter Beck," whereas the prior filing used "Peter Beck." While this is a nominal change, it reflects updated naming and adds formality.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-26
HIGH
Material language changes

The current filing provides an expanded discussion of the cybersecurity risks, including insider threats, external bad actors, potential impacts on own systems and those of customers and suppliers, targeting by hostile foreign governments, prior attacks experienced, and possible civil or criminal penalties for events involving classified or sensitive information. The prior filing had a more general cybersecurity risk discussion without these specifics.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-26
HIGH
Material language changes

The current filing details specific negative impacts on operations from the U.S. government shutdown starting October 1, 2025, including delays in contract awards and payments, State Department delays for licenses and visas, furlough of civilian employees reducing communications and increased response times, and workforce reductions at critical mission sites such as Wallops facility. This information was not included in prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-26
MEDIUM
Changes to dollar amounts or specificity

The current filing updates employee headcount from over 2,100 as of December 31, 2024 (prior filing) to over 2,600 as of December 31, 2025. Revenue figures were updated to $601.8 million for 2025, $436.2 million for 2024 and $244.6 million for 2023 in the current filing, compared to $436.2 million for 2024, $244.6 million for 2023 and $211.0 million for 2022 in the prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-26
MEDIUM
New items added

The current filing includes new risk factor language specifically mentioning a qualification testing failure of the Neutron Stage 1 tank on January 21, 2026, which ruptured the tank and impacted Neutron's launch schedule. This specific incident was not mentioned in the prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-26
Material Events (8-K)
8-K
Acquisition Bullish

Rocket Lab Corporation completed the acquisition of Mynaric AG, a German stock corporation, as announced in a press release dated April 14, 2026.

Filed 2026-04-14 · Rocket Lab Corporation
8-K
Compensatory Arrangement Amendment and RSU Cancellation Bullish

Sir Peter Beck, Chairman and CEO of Rocket Lab Corporation, voluntarily reduced his annual base salary to $1.00 (or the statutory minimum under New Zealand law), waived any entitlement to annual bonus...

Filed 2026-03-30 · Sir Peter Beck, Chairman and CEO
8-K
Test Failure Update Bearish

During qualification testing of the Stage 1 tank for its Neutron rocket, Rocket Lab Corporation experienced a rupture under hydrostatic pressure. The company is currently reviewing test data to assess...

Filed 2026-01-22 · Adam Spice, Chief Financial Officer
8-K
Contract Award Bullish $816 million

Rocket Lab Corporation through its subsidiary Rocket Lab USA, Inc., entered into an $816 million contract with the Space Development Agency to design, manufacture, operate, and sustain 18 satellites f...

Filed 2025-12-19
Insider selling: $43,545,058 sold by 10 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions: -17.1% (1 up, 5 down in 30d)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)
Factor Model (net -5.1)

Factor Model

net -5.1 7.3 / 10
Est. Revisions
-0.8
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
-1.0
Analyst Rev.
-0.9
Narrative Gap
-0.5
Filing Risk
+12.0

Rocket Lab surges 80% on SpaceX IPO buzz

Watch: Rocket Lab's Q2 earnings and Neutron rocket launch are critical to confirm growth and justify current valuation amid IPO-driven volatility.

Rocket Lab shares jumped more than 80% recently, fueled by SpaceX's IPO hype targeting over $1.7 trillion valuation. The stock's market cap reached $78 billion amid strong institutional interest from Citadel and Renaissance. Insider selling totaled $14.2M while short interest remains modest at 5.8%, signaling mixed caution. Discussions highlight risks of liquidity rotation around SpaceX's June 2026 IPO but also potential rebounds if IPO enthusiasm fades.

SpaceX's highly anticipated IPO is driving speculative momentum and volatility in Rocket Lab, creating short-term trading opportunities but raising concerns over sustained valuation and liquidity.

Position history (9d) bull bear neutral
2026-05-10 2026-05-31
All 9 daily readings
2026-05-31 bullish · high 5sig
2026-05-30 bullish · high 4sig
2026-05-18 bullish · high 5sig
2026-05-17 bullish · high 6sig
2026-05-16 bullish · high 5sig
2026-05-15 bullish · high 4sig
2026-05-14 bullish · high 4sig
2026-05-11 bullish · high 4sig
2026-05-10 bullish · high 4sig

Related Stocks

Ripple Effect

When RKLB goes bullish, ASTS follows 4x (50% same direction)

When RKLB goes bearish, ASTS follows 2x (100% same direction)

When RKLB goes mixed, ASTS follows 2x (100% same direction)

Evidence

Updated Saturday SpaceX effect on market reddit-stocks
Updated Saturday ASTS shift to bearish — sector peer signal for RKLB
Updated Friday ASTS shift to mixed — sector peer signal for RKLB
Updated Friday Insider sell by KAMPANI ARJUN E (RKLB): $14,246,080
7 older signals
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Rocket Lab Corporation Industrials · Aerospace & Defense
Mkt Cap
$83B
Beta
2.31
52w Range
$25.24 - $151.00
Short Interest
33.4M 5.81%
Days to Cover
1.2 +6%
Technicals uptrend
vs 20d MA
+21.5%
vs 50d MA
+57.2%
from 52w Hi
-4.5%
Vol (20d)
141%
1w return
+14.4%
1m return
+86.3%
3m return
+107.6%
Vol ratio
1.0x
Insiders
selling 0B / 10S
Analysts
bullish 3 up / 0 down
Earnings
beating 3B / 2M
EPS Estimate
$-0.07 -17.1% 30d 1up / 5dn
Est. Dispersion
87% 11 analysts
Analyst Target
$104 $60 - $150
Options P/C
0.59 7C / 1P unusual
Insider Cluster
strong sell 0B / 5S
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Renaissance, Bridgewater
Financials
Revenue
$200M +64% YoY
FCF
$-77M
Gross Margin
38%
Op Margin
-28%
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $855M
Renaissance $64M
Bridgewater $3M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 12
net selling · $43,545,058 sold
10 insiders · 12 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
POSSENRIEDE KENNETH R · award
SPICE ADAM C · sell · $8,945,631
CLEVENGER MARVIN BRADFORD · sell · $2,216,875
KLEIN FRANK · sell · $6,328,838
KAMPANI ARJUN E · sell · $14,246,080
SAINTIL MERLINE A · award
FRANK EDWARD H · award
SLUSKY ALEXANDER R · other
SLUSKY ALEXANDER R · sell · $11,807,634
ARMAGNO NINA M. · award
SLUSKY ALEXANDER R · award
OLSON JON A · award
material event 8

Rocket Lab Corporation completed the acquisition of Mynaric AG, a German stock corporation, as announced in a press release dated April 14, 2026. SEC↗

Sir Peter Beck, Chairman and CEO of Rocket Lab Corporation, voluntarily reduced his annual base salary to $1.00 (or the statutory minimum under New Zealand law), waived any entitlement to annual bonuses, and forfeited all unvested RSUs amounting to 392,155 shares. This reflects his focus on long-term shareholder value and redirects compensation funds to company priorities and R&D. SEC↗

During qualification testing of the Stage 1 tank for its Neutron rocket, Rocket Lab Corporation experienced a rupture under hydrostatic pressure. The company is currently reviewing test data to assess the impact on the Neutron rocket's launch schedule. SEC↗

Rocket Lab Corporation through its subsidiary Rocket Lab USA, Inc., entered into an $816 million contract with the Space Development Agency to design, manufacture, operate, and sustain 18 satellites for the Tracking Layer Tranche 3 program. Work starts immediately with final delivery by 2029. The agreement allows termination by either party under certain conditions. SEC↗

Matt Ocko resigned from Rocket Lab Corporation's Board of Directors, effective November 30, 2025. His resignation is not due to any dispute or disagreement with the company. The Board expressed gratitude for his service and contributions. SEC↗

3 more
Rocket Lab Corporation adopted a new Senior Executive Cash Incentive Bonus Plan
Rocket Lab Corporation completed the acquisition of the parent holding company o
Rocket Lab Corporation entered into a Stock Purchase Agreement to acquire LightR
filing change 12
MEDIUM Language Changes: Updated backlog figures and segment breakdown.
full analysis

Backlog increased from $1,067 million (with $681 million space systems, $386 million launch) to $1,847 million (with $1,372 million space systems, $476 million launch). This indicates growth in contracted future revenues, highlighting business expansion.

MEDIUM Language Changes: More detailed discussion of revenue recognition including variable consideration and contract modifications.
full analysis

The current filing elaborates on variable consideration methods, estimates of transaction price including probability threshold, and discusses cumulative catch-up adjustments impacting revenues which was less detailed or absent in prior filing.

HIGH Dollar Amount Changes: Convertible senior notes balance decreased from $355 million to $155.7 million and associated debt issuance costs decrea...
full analysis

The prior filing reports $355 million principal outstanding on 12/31/2024, with $9.6 million unamortized discounts and costs. The current filing shows $155.7 million principal outstanding on 12/31/2025, with $3.3 million unamortized costs, reflecting debt repayments or conversions during 2025.

HIGH New Items Added: Added detailed financial data and analysis for 2025 including revenue, costs, and operating losses with extensive year-o...
full analysis

Unlike the prior filing which ended at 2024 data, the current filing provides comprehensive financial results for 2025 with key metrics like $601.8 million revenue (38% increase from 2024), revenue by segment, increased costs including R&D and SG&A, backlog increasing to $1.85 billion, and detailed cash flow and liquidity analysis. This provides material updated financial context not in the prior filing.

HIGH Language Changes: Expanded scope in Space Systems segment description and acquisitions.
full analysis

The current filing adds mention of spacecraft manufacturing and other spacecraft and on-orbit management solutions, listing additional acquisition of GEOST not present before. The prior filing referenced only Sinclair Interplanetary, Planetary Systems Corporation, SolAero Technologies Corp., and Advanced Solutions, Incorporated. This indicates growth and expansion in space systems capabilities and markets.

7 more
MEDIUM Modified description of Neutron launch vehicle payload capacity and reusability configuration.
HIGH Added information on a failure during qualification testing of Neutron's first stage tank and update...
MEDIUM Changed references and use of CEO name from "Peter Beck" to "Sir Peter Beck".
HIGH Expanded risks related to cybersecurity and malicious attacks.
HIGH Expanded discussion of operations disruptions caused by U.S. government shutdown beginning October 1...
MEDIUM Updated employee headcount growth figures and revenue figures with current year data.
MEDIUM Added specific reference to the Neutron launch vehicle qualification failure during hydrostatic pres...
Track Record (3/5 correct) ▾

Direction History

3/5 correct at 5 days
2026-05-08 bullish +18.3%
2026-04-27 bearish -2.4%
2026-04-07 bullish +8.9%
2026-03-27 bearish +11.1%
2026-03-06 bullish -2.4%
bullish for 9d | 15 signals · latest Updated Saturday

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