ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

bearish 2/4 calls correct ↓ $88.57 -10.40 (-10.5%)
Mkt Cap $36B 52wk $20.26 - $129.89 Earnings missing Earnings 2026-05-11 3h ago
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
HIGH
New items added

Since prior filing, company recognized revenue from U.S. government agreements and from sale of gateway equipment to MNOs, with plans for revenue continuation as MNOs develop infrastructure for commercial readiness.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
HIGH
Ligado Transaction

The current filing on 2026-03-02 added detailed discussion about the Ligado Transaction including specific payment amounts ($550 million total, with breakdowns of $420M paid, $100M and $15M pending payments), description of the Backstop Commitment of $520 million, and litigation with Inmarsat involving the Bankruptcy Court ordering regulatory support. Previous filing discussed the transaction more generally with $550 million financing commitment subject to conditions without payment breakdowns or litigation details.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
HIGH
SpaceMobile Service Development and Funding

The current filing increased the estimated capital cost per satellite for a constellation of over 90 Block 2 BB satellites to $21.0M - $23.0M (from prior $19.0M - $21.0M). It also clarified that initial launches would be higher and outlined a launch campaign commenced with BB6 satellite launched on December 23, 2025, planning for 45 to 60 launches by end of 2026. The prior filing mentioned planned launches during 2025 and 2026 totaling approximately 60 satellites.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
HIGH
Financial Performance and Loss History

The current filing reports a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $341.9 million for 2025 and aggregate losses since inception of approximately $831.7 million. The prior filing reported $300.1 million for 2024 and losses of $489.7 million through 2024.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
HIGH
U.S. Government Contracts

Current filing describes the risk of government shutdowns (notably from Oct 1-Nov 13, 2025) impacting federal agencies like the FCC potentially delaying regulatory submissions, which could materially affect the business. It also discusses contracts with the U.S. government including a $43 million award in 2025. The earlier filing referenced government contracts generally but without mention of shutdowns or contract award amounts.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
MEDIUM
Regulatory Risks

The current filing elaborates that SpaceMobile Service uses spectrum allocated for terrestrial broadband, not mobile satellite use, requiring spectrum leasing agreements or similar with MNOs and FCC approval, including risks of delays, denials, and need for ongoing consent from MNOs. Prior filing mentioned these matters but with less detail on spectrum use, cooperative agreements and associated regulatory risks.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
MEDIUM
Organizational Structure and Control

Current filing shows Mr. Avellan controls approximately 72.0% voting power as of Feb 26, 2026, compared to 76.6% as of Feb 27, 2025 in prior filing. Both filings discuss controlled company status and exemption from some Nasdaq corporate governance rules.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
HIGH
Debt and Financing Covenants

Current filing provides detailed discussion on the UBS Loan Agreement for $420 million term loan to finance Ligado payment, including collateralization and covenants that may lead to default and seizure risk. Also discusses Sound Point Credit Facility delaying-draw loan of $550 million with similar risks. Prior filing mentions a $550 million senior secured delayed-draw term loan facility but with less detailed terms and no UBS loan description.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
MEDIUM
Accounting and Financial Reporting

The prior filing discussed in detail how warrants were classified as derivative liabilities measured at fair value with changes reported in earnings, referencing SEC Staff Statement. The current filing does not update this but presumably continues same policy.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
HIGH
New items added

On March 22, 2025, the company and its subsidiaries entered into definitive agreements with Ligado LLC for usage rights of mid-band spectrum, which were approved by the Bankruptcy Court on June 23, 2025, and the Chapter 11 plan was confirmed on or about September 29, 2025. This agreement is expected to enhance the network by providing long-term access to up to 45 MHz of lower mid-band satellite spectrum in the US and Canada.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
HIGH
New items added

On September 25, 2025, the company completed acquisition of an entity holding certain S-Band ITU priority rights to Mobile Satellite Services frequencies globally, expected to further enhance network spectrum by up to 60 MHz of mid-band satellite spectrum.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
MEDIUM
New items added

The December 23, 2025 launch of the BB6 satellite (largest phased array ever in commercial LEO) with phased array approx. 2,400 sq ft, three times larger than Block 1 array, to deliver up to 10 times bandwidth capacity. Successful deployment confirmed on February 10, 2026. ASIC chip development and expected impact also disclosed.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
MEDIUM
New items added

Multiple definitive commercial agreements announced in 2025 for providing SpaceMobile Service to end-users through MNOs including Verizon in US, SatCo in Europe/UK, and STC in Saudi Arabia and regional markets.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
MEDIUM
Language changes

Patent portfolio updated to approx. 3,850 patents/claims worldwide with approx. 1,900 granted, compared to prior 3,500 and 1,550 respectively. Global facility footprint increased to approx. 450,000 square feet from 194,000 square feet.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
MEDIUM
Language changes

Disclosed completion of investments to increase capacity to assemble and test up to six Block 2 BB satellites per month and acceleration of manufacturing and integration to meet planned launches in 2026.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
Material Events (8-K)
8-K
Financial Results and Business Update

AST SpaceMobile issued a press release and a business update presentation on March 2, 2026, sharing its financial results for the quarter and year ending December 31, 2025. The update also serves as m...

Filed 2026-03-02
Insider selling: $4,872,140 sold by 6 insiders (30d)
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: estimate_revisions, price_momentum, narrative_gap bullish vs filing_risk_change bearish
Est. revisions: +24.4%

Factor Model

net +0.8 3.9 / 10
Est. Revisions
+0.9
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.2
Analyst Rev.
+0.0
Narrative Gap
+0.5
Filing Risk
+15.0

ASTS rallies on $71M revenue, faces BlueBird delays

Watch: BlueBird 7 launch and subsequent operational validation as key catalysts for confirming ASTS's competitive position and stock direction.

Full analysis

AST SpaceMobile posted Q4 2025 revenue of $70.9 million, beating estimates by 30% and marking a 27x year-over-year growth. The company secured over $1 billion in contract backlog and plans to deploy 45-60 BlueBird satellites by end-2026. However, the BlueBird 7 launch was delayed twice to April 16, triggering share price volatility and a recent 11% drop amid increased satellite connectivity competition from Amazon and SpaceX. Insider selling continues amid mixed analyst ratings and technical downtrend.

The revenue surge and backlog highlight ASTS's growth potential, but launch delays, competitive pressure, and insider selling raise short-term risks and may weigh on stock momentum despite institutional interest and large contract commitments.

Position history (4d) bull bear neutral
2026-03-26 2026-03-31
All 4 daily readings
2026-03-31 bearish · high 11sig
2026-03-30 bearish · high 13sig
2026-03-29 bearish · high 14sig
2026-03-26 bearish · high 9sig

Compare

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Ripple Effect

When ASTS goes bullish, RKLB follows 2x (0% same direction)

Evidence

7 older signals
Fundamentals & Data ▾
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Technology · Communication Equipment
Mkt Cap
$36B
Beta
2.80
52w Range
$20.26 - $129.89
Short Interest
45.8M 20.09%
Days to Cover
3.9 +6%
Technicals downtrend
vs 20d MA
-1.6%
vs 50d MA
-2.1%
from 52w Hi
-27.5%
Vol (20d)
107%
1w return
-4.3%
1m return
+2.6%
3m return
-10.0%
Vol ratio
1.1x
Insiders
selling 1B / 2S
Analysts
mixed
Earnings
missing 1B / 4M
EPS Estimate
$-0.20 +24.4% 30d 0up / 0dn
Est. Dispersion
83% 5 analysts
Analyst Target
$89 $41 - $139
Options P/C
0.52 7C / 4P unusual
Insider Cluster
buy cluster 2B / 7S
Fund Convergence
moderate Citadel, D.E. Shaw
Financials
Revenue
$54M +2731% YoY
FCF
$-359M
Gross Margin
46%
Op Margin
-133%
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $768M
D.E. Shaw $56M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 8
net selling · $4,872,140 sold
6 insiders · 8 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
WISNIEWSKI SCOTT · other
WISNIEWSKI SCOTT · sell · $1,316,940
YAO HUIWEN · sell · $3,555,200
JOHNSON ANDREW MARTIN · award
AVELLAN ABEL ANTONIO · award
GUPTA SHANTI B. · award
WISNIEWSKI SCOTT · award
Johnson Andrew Martin · award
filing change 15
HIGH New items added: Operational and revenue recognition updates: Recognized revenue from U.S. government agreements and sales to MNOs, and d...
full analysis

Since prior filing, company recognized revenue from U.S. government agreements and from sale of gateway equipment to MNOs, with plans for revenue continuation as MNOs develop infrastructure for commercial readiness.

HIGH Ligado Transaction: Details on the Ligado Transaction were updated with new payment terms, bankruptcy court proceedings and financing arrang...
full analysis

The current filing on 2026-03-02 added detailed discussion about the Ligado Transaction including specific payment amounts ($550 million total, with breakdowns of $420M paid, $100M and $15M pending payments), description of the Backstop Commitment of $520 million, and litigation with Inmarsat involving the Bankruptcy Court ordering regulatory support. Previous filing discussed the transaction more generally with $550 million financing commitment subject to conditions without payment breakdowns or litigation details.

HIGH SpaceMobile Service Development and Funding: Updated estimates of capital costs and launch plans for the Block 2 BB satellites were provided.
full analysis

The current filing increased the estimated capital cost per satellite for a constellation of over 90 Block 2 BB satellites to $21.0M - $23.0M (from prior $19.0M - $21.0M). It also clarified that initial launches would be higher and outlined a launch campaign commenced with BB6 satellite launched on December 23, 2025, planning for 45 to 60 launches by end of 2026. The prior filing mentioned planned launches during 2025 and 2026 totaling approximately 60 satellites.

HIGH Financial Performance and Loss History: Updated net loss figures and accumulated losses to date were disclosed.
full analysis

The current filing reports a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $341.9 million for 2025 and aggregate losses since inception of approximately $831.7 million. The prior filing reported $300.1 million for 2024 and losses of $489.7 million through 2024.

HIGH U.S. Government Contracts: New risks related to government shutdowns and specific contract details were added.
full analysis

Current filing describes the risk of government shutdowns (notably from Oct 1-Nov 13, 2025) impacting federal agencies like the FCC potentially delaying regulatory submissions, which could materially affect the business. It also discusses contracts with the U.S. government including a $43 million award in 2025. The earlier filing referenced government contracts generally but without mention of shutdowns or contract award amounts.

10 more
MEDIUM More detailed discussion on regulatory approvals and spectrum usage was added, including cooperative...
MEDIUM Updated voting control percentages and Nasdaq listing governance exemptions were updated, reflecting...
HIGH New debt financing agreements and risks related to financing of the Ligado Transaction were describe...
MEDIUM Expanded disclosure on accounting for warrants as liabilities was added in prior filing but not upda...
HIGH Definitive agreements and approval related to mid-band spectrum usage rights from Ligado LLC.
HIGH Acquisition of entity holding S-Band ITU priority rights.
MEDIUM Significant launch and satellite operations update regarding Block 2 BB satellite and phased array d...
MEDIUM New commercial agreements with MNOs including Verizon, STC, SatCo for SpaceMobile Service distributi...
MEDIUM Updates in company facilities footprint and patent portfolio.
MEDIUM Updates on manufacturing capacity and satellite production speeds.
material event 1
AST SpaceMobile issued a press release and a business update presentation on March 2, 2026, sharing its financial result... SEC↗
Track Record (2/4 correct) ▾

Direction History

2/4 correct at 5 days
2026-03-28 bearish +20.5%
2026-03-27 bullish +20.5%
2026-03-21 bearish -12.5%
2026-03-06 bullish -3.5%
Transcript analysis coming soon
bearish for 4d | 15 signals · latest 1h ago

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