ASTS AST SpaceMobile, Inc.

bearish · high conviction 3/6 shifts correct ↓ $113.41 -19.68 (-14.8%)
Mkt Cap $44B 52wk $22.72 - $133.86 Earnings missing 16h ago
r/
Reddit bullish 13 mentions, 7d
7 bullish · 2 bearish · 4 neutral
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
MEDIUM
Organizational Structure and Control

Current filing shows Mr. Avellan controls approximately 72.0% voting power as of Feb 26, 2026, compared to 76.6% as of Feb 27, 2025 in prior filing. Both filings discuss controlled company status and exemption from some Nasdaq corporate governance rules.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
MEDIUM
Language changes

Disclosed completion of investments to increase capacity to assemble and test up to six Block 2 BB satellites per month and acceleration of manufacturing and integration to meet planned launches in 2026.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
HIGH
Ligado Transaction

The current filing on 2026-03-02 added detailed discussion about the Ligado Transaction including specific payment amounts ($550 million total, with breakdowns of $420M paid, $100M and $15M pending payments), description of the Backstop Commitment of $520 million, and litigation with Inmarsat involving the Bankruptcy Court ordering regulatory support. Previous filing discussed the transaction more generally with $550 million financing commitment subject to conditions without payment breakdowns or litigation details.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
HIGH
SpaceMobile Service Development and Funding

The current filing increased the estimated capital cost per satellite for a constellation of over 90 Block 2 BB satellites to $21.0M - $23.0M (from prior $19.0M - $21.0M). It also clarified that initial launches would be higher and outlined a launch campaign commenced with BB6 satellite launched on December 23, 2025, planning for 45 to 60 launches by end of 2026. The prior filing mentioned planned launches during 2025 and 2026 totaling approximately 60 satellites.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
HIGH
Financial Performance and Loss History

The current filing reports a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $341.9 million for 2025 and aggregate losses since inception of approximately $831.7 million. The prior filing reported $300.1 million for 2024 and losses of $489.7 million through 2024.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
HIGH
U.S. Government Contracts

Current filing describes the risk of government shutdowns (notably from Oct 1-Nov 13, 2025) impacting federal agencies like the FCC potentially delaying regulatory submissions, which could materially affect the business. It also discusses contracts with the U.S. government including a $43 million award in 2025. The earlier filing referenced government contracts generally but without mention of shutdowns or contract award amounts.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
MEDIUM
Regulatory Risks

The current filing elaborates that SpaceMobile Service uses spectrum allocated for terrestrial broadband, not mobile satellite use, requiring spectrum leasing agreements or similar with MNOs and FCC approval, including risks of delays, denials, and need for ongoing consent from MNOs. Prior filing mentioned these matters but with less detail on spectrum use, cooperative agreements and associated regulatory risks.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
HIGH
Debt and Financing Covenants

Current filing provides detailed discussion on the UBS Loan Agreement for $420 million term loan to finance Ligado payment, including collateralization and covenants that may lead to default and seizure risk. Also discusses Sound Point Credit Facility delaying-draw loan of $550 million with similar risks. Prior filing mentions a $550 million senior secured delayed-draw term loan facility but with less detailed terms and no UBS loan description.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
MEDIUM
Accounting and Financial Reporting

The prior filing discussed in detail how warrants were classified as derivative liabilities measured at fair value with changes reported in earnings, referencing SEC Staff Statement. The current filing does not update this but presumably continues same policy.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
HIGH
New items added

On March 22, 2025, the company and its subsidiaries entered into definitive agreements with Ligado LLC for usage rights of mid-band spectrum, which were approved by the Bankruptcy Court on June 23, 2025, and the Chapter 11 plan was confirmed on or about September 29, 2025. This agreement is expected to enhance the network by providing long-term access to up to 45 MHz of lower mid-band satellite spectrum in the US and Canada.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
HIGH
New items added

On September 25, 2025, the company completed acquisition of an entity holding certain S-Band ITU priority rights to Mobile Satellite Services frequencies globally, expected to further enhance network spectrum by up to 60 MHz of mid-band satellite spectrum.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
MEDIUM
New items added

The December 23, 2025 launch of the BB6 satellite (largest phased array ever in commercial LEO) with phased array approx. 2,400 sq ft, three times larger than Block 1 array, to deliver up to 10 times bandwidth capacity. Successful deployment confirmed on February 10, 2026. ASIC chip development and expected impact also disclosed.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
MEDIUM
New items added

Multiple definitive commercial agreements announced in 2025 for providing SpaceMobile Service to end-users through MNOs including Verizon in US, SatCo in Europe/UK, and STC in Saudi Arabia and regional markets.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
MEDIUM
Language changes

Patent portfolio updated to approx. 3,850 patents/claims worldwide with approx. 1,900 granted, compared to prior 3,500 and 1,550 respectively. Global facility footprint increased to approx. 450,000 square feet from 194,000 square feet.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
HIGH
New items added

Since prior filing, company recognized revenue from U.S. government agreements and from sale of gateway equipment to MNOs, with plans for revenue continuation as MNOs develop infrastructure for commercial readiness.

10-K · Filed 2026-03-02
Material Events (8-K)
8-K
Satellite launch failure and insurance recovery Bearish

AST SpaceMobile's Block 2 BlueBird 7 satellite was launched on April 19, 2026, on the New Glenn 3 mission but placed into a lower than planned orbit, making it inoperable and leading to its de-orbit. ...

Filed 2026-04-20
8-K
Financial Results and Business Update

AST SpaceMobile issued a press release and a business update presentation on March 2, 2026, sharing its financial results for the quarter and year ending December 31, 2025. The update also serves as m...

Filed 2026-03-02
8-K
Entry into a Material Definitive Agreement $1.0 billion

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. completed a private offering of $1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2036. The notes were issued pursuant to an indenture with U.S. Bank ...

Filed 2026-02-17 · AST SpaceMobile, Inc., U.S. Bank Trust Company, National Association
8-K
Financing offering and preliminary financial announcement

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. announced a proposed offering of convertible senior notes due 2036 to qualified institutional buyers and two proposed registered direct offerings of Class A common stock. The ann...

Filed 2026-02-11 · AST SpaceMobile, Inc.
Insider selling: $2,239,805 sold by 5 insiders (30d)
Est. revisions: -39.5%
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)
Factor Model (net -5.4)

Factor Model

net -5.4 6.4 / 10
Est. Revisions
-1.0
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
-1.0
Analyst Rev.
-1.0
Narrative Gap
+0.0
Filing Risk
+15.0

Blue Origin Delay Cuts ASTS Launch Timeline

Watch: Monitor upcoming Falcon 9 satellite launches in mid-June to gauge ASTS's ability to offset Blue Origin setbacks and validate 2026 growth plans.

AST SpaceMobile shares plunged over 10% after Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket exploded, causing a six-month delay in satellite deployments. Deutsche Bank downgraded ASTS from Buy to Hold and cut its price target to $106. Despite delays, ASTS plans three Falcon 9 launches in mid-June and holds about $3.5 billion in cash backing over 100 satellites. Revenue remains modest at $14 million for Q1 with only 6 operational satellites and a market cap near $46 billion.

This delay heightens execution risk for ASTS's ambitious growth and satellite deployment, undermining investor confidence despite strong cash reserves and some launch alternatives.

Position history (4d) bull bear neutral
2026-05-14 2026-05-31
All 4 daily readings
2026-05-31 bearish · high 5sig
2026-05-30 bearish · high 8sig
2026-05-27 bullish · high 7sig
2026-05-14 bearish · high 3sig

Related Stocks

Ripple Effect

When ASTS goes bullish, RKLB follows 6x (33% same direction)

When ASTS goes mixed, RKLB follows 2x (0% same direction)

When ASTS goes neutral, RKLB follows 2x (0% same direction)

Evidence

14h ago Short interest dropped 3% to 52,399,829 shares
Updated Saturday SpaceX effect on market reddit-stocks
Updated Saturday Why not just short tf out of ASTS? reddit-wsb
Updated Friday Deutsche Bank down ASTS: Buy → Hold
Updated Friday RKLB shift to bullish — sector peer signal for ASTS
7 older signals
Fundamentals & Data ▾
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. Technology · Communication Equipment
Mkt Cap
$44B
Beta
2.60
52w Range
$22.72 - $133.86
Short Interest
52.4M 17.6%
Days to Cover
2.6 +8%
Technicals uptrend
vs 20d MA
+27.9%
vs 50d MA
+30.5%
from 52w Hi
-14.8%
Vol (20d)
130%
1w return
+17.9%
1m return
+62.4%
3m return
+43.2%
Vol ratio
1.5x
Insiders
selling 0B / 7S
Analysts
bearish 0 up / 1 down
Earnings
missing 1B / 4M
EPS Estimate
$-0.30 -39.5% 30d 0up / 4dn
Est. Dispersion
88% 5 analysts
Analyst Target
$82 $41 - $108
Options P/C
0.80 11C / 13P unusual
Insider Cluster
strong sell 0B / 3S
Fund Convergence
moderate Citadel, D.E. Shaw
Financials
Revenue
$15M +1952% YoY
FCF
$-327M
Gross Margin
21%
Op Margin
-1014%
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
Citadel $768M
D.E. Shaw $56M
Recent Filings & Data
insider trade 5
net selling · $2,239,805 sold
5 insiders · 5 transactions (30d)
Recent transactions
GUPTA SHANTI B. · award
TORRES JULIO A · sell · $1,145,100
WISNIEWSKI SCOTT · sell · $643,455
YAO HUIWEN · award
JOHNSON ANDREW MARTIN · sell · $451,250
analyst rating 1
Deutsche Bank down → Hold Updated Friday
material event 20

AST SpaceMobile's Block 2 BlueBird 7 satellite was launched on April 19, 2026, on the New Glenn 3 mission but placed into a lower than planned orbit, making it inoperable and leading to its de-orbit. The company expects to recover the satellite's cost through insurance. BlueBird 7 was the eighth planned satellite for its space-based broadband network, with production ongoing for future satellites and launch plans continuing. SEC↗

AST SpaceMobile issued a press release and a business update presentation on March 2, 2026, sharing its financial results for the quarter and year ending December 31, 2025. The update also serves as material for a conference call the same day. No personnel changes, agreements, or specific dollar amounts were disclosed in the filing. SEC↗

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. completed a private offering of $1.0 billion aggregate principal amount of 2.25% Convertible Senior Notes due 2036. The notes were issued pursuant to an indenture with U.S. Bank Trust Company as trustee. The company granted purchasers an option to buy an additional $150 million in notes until February 20, 2026. The notes mature on April 15, 2036, carry a 2.25% interest rate payable semiannually, and are convertible under certain conditions before January 2036. SEC↗

AST SpaceMobile, Inc. announced a proposed offering of convertible senior notes due 2036 to qualified institutional buyers and two proposed registered direct offerings of Class A common stock. The announcements include preliminary unaudited financial information for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2025, though final results are pending. This is a financing event involving the company and institutional investors. No specific dollar amounts were disclosed in the excerpt. The sentiment is neutral as this is a financing activity and not an operational or leadership change. SEC↗

Mr. Hiroshi Mikitani resigned from the Board of AST SpaceMobile, Inc. effective January 13, 2026 due to Rakuten Group no longer holding sufficient shares to designate a director nominee. The Board reduced its size from 12 to 11 directors following his departure. Mikitani was a member of the Network Planning Spectrum Committee. His resignation was not due to any disagreement with the company. SEC↗

15 more
AST SpaceMobile shareholders approved the Amended and Restated 2024 Incentive Aw
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. issued a press release on November 10, 2025, announcing it
BackstopCo, LLC, a subsidiary of AST Science, LLC, entered into a $420 million c
AST SpaceMobile's wholly owned subsidiary, AST Science, LLC, entered into a ten-
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. completed a private offering of $1.0 billion aggregate pri
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement on October 7
AST SpaceMobile announced that their first Block 2 BlueBird satellite, BlueBird
AST SpaceMobile issued a Second Quarter 2025 Business Update along with financia
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. entered into an agreement to acquire an entity holding cer
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. completed a private offering of $575 million aggregate pri
On July 15, 2025, AST SpaceMobile's indirect subsidiary Spectrum USA I, LLC ente
AST SpaceMobile's wholly owned subsidiaries entered into a Master Equipment Fina
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. entered into a material definitive agreement with Ligado N
AST SpaceMobile, Inc. entered into an Equity Distribution Agreement to sell up t
AST SpaceMobile issued a First Quarter 2025 Business Update and held a conferenc
filing change 15
MEDIUM Organizational Structure and Control: Updated voting control percentages and Nasdaq listing governance exemptions were updated, reflecting changes in ownershi...
full analysis

Current filing shows Mr. Avellan controls approximately 72.0% voting power as of Feb 26, 2026, compared to 76.6% as of Feb 27, 2025 in prior filing. Both filings discuss controlled company status and exemption from some Nasdaq corporate governance rules.

MEDIUM Language changes: Updates on manufacturing capacity and satellite production speeds.
full analysis

Disclosed completion of investments to increase capacity to assemble and test up to six Block 2 BB satellites per month and acceleration of manufacturing and integration to meet planned launches in 2026.

HIGH Ligado Transaction: Details on the Ligado Transaction were updated with new payment terms, bankruptcy court proceedings and financing arrang...
full analysis

The current filing on 2026-03-02 added detailed discussion about the Ligado Transaction including specific payment amounts ($550 million total, with breakdowns of $420M paid, $100M and $15M pending payments), description of the Backstop Commitment of $520 million, and litigation with Inmarsat involving the Bankruptcy Court ordering regulatory support. Previous filing discussed the transaction more generally with $550 million financing commitment subject to conditions without payment breakdowns or litigation details.

HIGH SpaceMobile Service Development and Funding: Updated estimates of capital costs and launch plans for the Block 2 BB satellites were provided.
full analysis

The current filing increased the estimated capital cost per satellite for a constellation of over 90 Block 2 BB satellites to $21.0M - $23.0M (from prior $19.0M - $21.0M). It also clarified that initial launches would be higher and outlined a launch campaign commenced with BB6 satellite launched on December 23, 2025, planning for 45 to 60 launches by end of 2026. The prior filing mentioned planned launches during 2025 and 2026 totaling approximately 60 satellites.

HIGH Financial Performance and Loss History: Updated net loss figures and accumulated losses to date were disclosed.
full analysis

The current filing reports a net loss attributable to common stockholders of $341.9 million for 2025 and aggregate losses since inception of approximately $831.7 million. The prior filing reported $300.1 million for 2024 and losses of $489.7 million through 2024.

10 more
HIGH New risks related to government shutdowns and specific contract details were added.
MEDIUM More detailed discussion on regulatory approvals and spectrum usage was added, including cooperative...
HIGH New debt financing agreements and risks related to financing of the Ligado Transaction were describe...
MEDIUM Expanded disclosure on accounting for warrants as liabilities was added in prior filing but not upda...
HIGH Definitive agreements and approval related to mid-band spectrum usage rights from Ligado LLC.
HIGH Acquisition of entity holding S-Band ITU priority rights.
MEDIUM Significant launch and satellite operations update regarding Block 2 BB satellite and phased array d...
MEDIUM New commercial agreements with MNOs including Verizon, STC, SatCo for SpaceMobile Service distributi...
MEDIUM Updates in company facilities footprint and patent portfolio.
HIGH Operational and revenue recognition updates: Recognized revenue from U.S. government agreements and ...
Track Record (3/6 correct) ▾

Direction History

3/6 correct at 5 days
2026-05-21 bullish +17.9%
2026-05-14 bearish +15.9%
2026-03-28 bearish +20.5%
2026-03-27 bullish +20.5%
2026-03-21 bearish -12.5%
2026-03-06 bullish -3.5%
bearish for 2d | 15 signals · latest 14h ago

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