Factor Model (net -0.1)
Factor Model
net -0.1 1.0 / 10Coffee revenue up 31%, but margin hit hard
Watch: Track Q1 2026 gross margin closely to see if the 34-36% target holds—coffee price stabilization is the key variable. Also watch whether the energy drink rollout maintains momentum above 20,000 doors.
Black Rifle Coffee posted packaged coffee revenue growth of 31.1% in fiscal 2025, capturing 60 basis points of share in bagged coffee to reach 3.3% nationally. Units climbed 22% while distribution reached 54.9% ACV. Ready-to-drink coffee hit 55.9% ACV and the energy drink line reached roughly 22% ACV across 20,000 doors. Gross margin fell 6.5 points in 2025 as coffee prices nearly doubled and tariffs bit into profitability. Management guides to $425 million revenue in 2026—up 7%—with EBITDA growing 30% and operating expenses declining year-over-year. Margin is expected to stabilize between 34% and 36%.
The top-line story is strong—Black Rifle is taking share and expanding shelf space faster than the category. But the margin compression shows how commodity inflation and tariffs can overwhelm volume gains. If coffee costs stabilize, the company's scale and distribution gains should flow through to earnings. If not, 2026 could squeeze again.
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