TAP Earnings
Thursday, Apr 30 2026
EPS Estimate
$0.37
$0.25 – $0.47
Revenue Estimate
$2.3B
Current Price
$43.59
Our Position
bearishQ4 Beat Masks 2026 Earnings Collapse Guidance
structured data
est. revisions rising
(+28.2pp / 30d)
The guidance collapse suggests TAP faces structural headwinds — likely margin pressure or volume declines — that can't be outrun by modest earnings beats. With adjusted earnings forecast to contract double digits, the stock is pricing in weakness well into 2026, and analyst divergence (Outperform vs. Hold) reflects genuine uncertainty about whether the company can stabilize.
Watch: Watch Q1 2026 execution against the lowered guidance. Any stabilization in volume trends or margin defense would validate the upside case; further deterioration would confirm the bearish view and likely pressure both price targets lower.
Data Signal Summary
2 bullish
2 bearish
Estimates down -4%
Insider buying cluster
Put/call 0.4 (bullish skew)
Price downtrend
Key Context
Analyst Consensus
mixed
Insider Activity
mixed
Price Trend
downtrend
From 52w High
-3.2%
Est. Revisions (30d)
-4.0% 0up/3dn
Analyst Target (mean)
$47 $36–$61 +8%
Options P/C Ratio
0.36
Est. Dispersion
59% 15 analysts
Insider Cluster
strong buy
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Two Sigma, Bridgewater, D.E. Shaw
Recent Activity
insider trades
78 transactions
Award
·
STELTER ROXANNE (Officer)
·1,049 shares
Award
·
COORS PETER JOSEPH (Director)
·583 shares
Award
·
COCKS CHRISTIAN P (Director)
·668 shares
Award
·
HERINGTON CHARLES M (Director)
·334 shares
Buy
·
MOLSON ANDREW THOMAS (Director)
·2,000 shares
·$93,338
73 more
Award
·
COORS DAVID S
·2,113 shr
Award
·
STELTER ROXANNE
·2,774 shr
Award
·
MACIOLEK NATALIE G
·9,508 shr
Award
·
WHITEHEAD PHILIP MARK
·7,924 shr
Award
·
GOYAL RAHUL
·36,975 shr
Award
·
VOHS DARRIN
·3,170 shr
Award
·
COORS PETER JOSEPH
·1,585 shr
Award
·
JOUBERT TRACEY I
·12,677 shr
Award
·
COORS DAVID S
·1,174 shr
Award
·
WHITEHEAD PHILIP MARK
·2,931 shr
Award
·
GOYAL RAHUL
·7,034 shr
Award
·
VOHS DARRIN
·4,689 shr
Award
·
COORS PETER JOSEPH
·177 shr
Award
·
JOUBERT TRACEY I
·17,583 shr
Buy
·
WINNEFELD JAMES A. JR.
·100 shr
·$4,901
Award
·
COCKS CHRISTIAN P
·616 shr
Award
·
HERINGTON CHARLES M
·308 shr
Buy
·
COCKS CHRISTIAN P
·45 shr
·$2,123
Buy
·
MOLSON ANDREW THOMAS
·7,500 shr
·$350,924
Buy
·
COORS DAVID S
·2,245 shr
·$99,824
Award
·
GOYAL RAHUL
·43,450 shr
Award
·
COCKS CHRISTIAN P
·636 shr
Award
·
HERINGTON CHARLES M
·318 shr
Award
·
COCKS CHRISTIAN P
·315 shr
Award
·
HERINGTON CHARLES M
·287 shr
Sell
·
MOLSON GEOFFREY E
·1,333 shr
·$75,036
Award
·
COORS DAVID S
·3,022 shr
Award
·
O'SULLIVAN NESSA I
·3,022 shr
Award
·
COCKS CHRISTIAN P
·3,022 shr
Award
·
EATON ROGER G
·3,022 shr
Award
·
FERGUSON-MCHUGH MARY LYNN
·3,022 shr
Award
·
WINNEFELD JAMES A. JR.
·3,022 shr
Award
·
TIMM JILL
·3,022 shr
Award
·
RILEY HUGH SANFORD
·3,022 shr
Award
·
MOLSON GEOFFREY E
·3,022 shr
Award
·
MOLSON ANDREW THOMAS
·3,022 shr
Award
·
WILLIAMS LEROY JAMES JR.
·3,022 shr
Award
·
HERINGTON CHARLES M
·3,022 shr
Buy
·
WINNEFELD JAMES A. JR.
·200 shr
·$10,800
Award
·
MACIOLEK NATALIE G
·10,436 shr
Award
·
WHITEHEAD PHILIP MARK
·8,163 shr
Award
·
JOUBERT TRACEY I
·66,539 shr
Award
·
ST. JACQUES MICHELLE
·12,481 shr
Award
·
HERINGTON CHARLES M
·216 shr
Sell
·
WHITEHEAD PHILIP MARK
·3,491 shr
·$208,099
Award
·
COORS DAVID S
·422 shr
Award
·
STELTER ROXANNE
·738 shr
Award
·
MACIOLEK NATALIE G
·6,324 shr
Award
·
WHITEHEAD PHILIP MARK
·6,324 shr
Award
·
HATTERSLEY GAVIN D K
·37,943 shr
Award
·
JOUBERT TRACEY I
·10,119 shr
Award
·
ST. JACQUES MICHELLE
·7,589 shr
Award
·
COORS DAVID S
·1,679 shr
Award
·
STELTER ROXANNE
·2,935 shr
Award
·
WHITEHEAD PHILIP MARK
·4,193 shr
Award
·
HATTERSLEY GAVIN D K
·93,907 shr
Award
·
JOUBERT TRACEY I
·25,155 shr
Award
·
ST. JACQUES MICHELLE
·13,416 shr
Award
·
HERINGTON CHARLES M
·229 shr
Award
·
HERINGTON CHARLES M
·259 shr
Award
·
O'SULLIVAN NESSA I
·2,873 shr
Award
·
BROWN JULIA M
·2,873 shr
Award
·
EATON ROGER G
·2,873 shr
Award
·
FERGUSON-MCHUGH MARY LYNN
·2,873 shr
Award
·
WINNEFELD JAMES A. JR.
·2,873 shr
Award
·
TIMM JILL
·2,873 shr
Award
·
COORS DAVID S
·2,873 shr
Award
·
RILEY HUGH SANFORD
·2,873 shr
Award
·
MOLSON GEOFFREY E
·2,873 shr
Award
·
COORS PETER H
·2,873 shr
Award
·
MOLSON ANDREW THOMAS
·2,873 shr
Award
·
WILLIAMS LEROY JAMES JR.
·2,873 shr
Award
·
HERINGTON CHARLES M
·2,873 shr
analyst ratings
1 rating
Barclays
→Underweight
7d ago
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