CAR

CAR Earnings Preview

Avis Budget Group, Inc. · Industrials · $16B

14d until earnings

Our Call

bearish · medium Full prediction →

CAR pullback likely after extreme 64% spike; analyst downgrade headwind

Expected move: 15–30% from event-day close

Full thesis

CAR has surged 64% in 1 week to hit the 52-week high, but faces mean reversion risk and analyst headwinds. Barclays downgraded in the last 30 days, and the stock's underlying trend remains downward despite the recent spike. With sell-the-news probability at 45% and priced-in risk low, the market is vulnerable to a 30-40% partial reversal over days 2-5 post-earnings. The extreme options positioning (P/C 2.73) suggests contrarian upside, but the fundamental bearish signals (downgrade, momentum exhaustion, valuation stretch) are more compelling.

CAR Earnings

Thursday, May 07 2026
EPS Estimate
$-7.18
$-7.75 – $-6.64
Revenue Estimate
$2.4B
Current Price
$713.97

Our Position

bearish · high

Avis surges 500% amid short squeeze risk

structured data est. revisions stable

The rally reflects extreme speculative fervor disconnected from fundamentals, signaling high volatility and the risk of a sharp pullback despite momentum and high institutional ownership.

Watch: Upcoming earnings report will test if the rally is sustainable or triggers a correction amid heavy debt and negative earnings.

Data Signal Summary

0 bullish
4 bearish
Insider selling cluster Put/call 3.8 (bearish skew) Analysts: bearish Price downtrend

Key Context

Analyst Consensus
bearish
Insider Activity
selling
Price Trend
downtrend
From 52w High
0.0%
Est. Revisions (30d)
+0.0% 0up/1dn
Analyst Target (mean)
$114 $85–$150 -84%
Options P/C Ratio
3.82 6C/11P unusual
Est. Dispersion
6% 4 analysts
Insider Cluster
strong sell
Fund Convergence
strong Citadel, Renaissance, Bridgewater

Recent Activity

insider trades 63 transactions
Award · HEES BERNARDO (Director) ·673 shares ·$76,486
Exercise · PENTWATER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. (Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security) ·1,731,000 shares ·$195,069,000
Exercise · PENTWATER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. (Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security) ·1,032,900 shares ·$121,907,500
Other · PAHWA JAGDEEP (Officer and Director) ·13,303 shares
Exercise · PENTWATER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. (Beneficial Owner of more than 10% of a Class of Security) ·43,400 shares ·$5,219,500
58 more
Award · CHOI BRIAN J ·2,947 shr
Exercise · CHOI BRIAN J ·2,947 shr ·$296,792
Other · DEGENOVA CATHLEEN ·273 shr
Other · SERA JEAN M. ·749 shr
Award · SIMHAMBHATLA RAVI ·1,326 shr
Exercise · PENTWATER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. ·263,400 shr ·$33,322,000
Award · LINNEN EDWARD P ·958 shr
Exercise · LINNEN EDWARD P ·958 shr ·$96,480
Other · CHOI BRIAN J ·9,977 shr
Other · DEGENOVA CATHLEEN ·705 shr
Other · SERA JEAN M. ·1,351 shr
Other · SIMHAMBHATLA RAVI ·2,394 shr
Other · LINNEN EDWARD P ·1,729 shr
Other · CHOI BRIAN J ·1,515 shr
Other · DEGENOVA CATHLEEN ·148 shr
Other · SERA JEAN M. ·421 shr
Other · SIMHAMBHATLA RAVI ·758 shr
Exercise · PENTWATER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. ·24,500 shr ·$3,062,500
Other · LINNEN EDWARD P ·547 shr
Exercise · PENTWATER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. ·600 shr ·$79,000
Exercise · PENTWATER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. ·200 shr ·$30,000
Exercise · PENTWATER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. ·85,200 shr ·$11,115,000
Award · LURIE GLENN ·1,555 shr ·$150,011
Award · HARIHARAN ANU ·1,373 shr ·$132,453
Buy · PENTWATER CAPITAL MANAGEMENT, L.P. ·425,000 shr ·$40,060,075
Award · KROMINGA LYNN ·1,762 shr ·$169,980
Sell · KROMINGA LYNN ·1,950 shr ·$178,503
Award · HEES BERNARDO ·2,592 shr ·$250,050
Other · CHOI BRIAN J ·9,645 shr
Other · SERA JEAN M. ·5,144 shr
Other · LINNEN EDWARD P ·6,430 shr
Sell · LINNEN EDWARD P ·10,000 shr ·$1,568,283
Sell · HEES BERNARDO ·402,200 shr ·$62,980,572
Award · SIMHAMBHATLA RAVI ·2,335 shr
Exercise · SIMHAMBHATLA RAVI ·507 shr ·$104,843
Other · FERRARO JOSEPH A ·7,884 shr
Other · CHOI BRIAN J ·2,947 shr
Other · DEGENOVA CATHLEEN ·272 shr
Other · SERA JEAN M. ·748 shr
Other · SIMHAMBHATLA RAVI ·1,326 shr
Other · MARTINS IZILDA P ·2,542 shr
Other · LINNEN EDWARD P ·958 shr
Other · FERRARO JOSEPH A ·24,898 shr
Other · CHOI BRIAN J ·8,620 shr
Other · DEGENOVA CATHLEEN ·818 shr
Other · SERA JEAN M. ·2,394 shr
Other · SIMHAMBHATLA RAVI ·757 shr
Other · MARTINS IZILDA P ·4,311 shr
Award · HEES BERNARDO ·12,178 shr
Exercise · HEES BERNARDO ·11,554 shr ·$860,657
Other · LINNEN EDWARD P ·3,113 shr
Sell · KROMINGA LYNN ·2,066 shr ·$196,270
Award · LURIE GLENN ·1,720 shr ·$149,967
Award · HARIHARAN ANU ·1,520 shr ·$132,529
Award · KROMINGA LYNN ·1,950 shr ·$170,020
Award · HEES BERNARDO ·1,433 shr ·$124,943
Other · SIMHAMBHATLA RAVI ·18,324 shr
Other · HEES BERNARDO ·10,095 shr
analyst ratings 1 rating
Barclays ·down Underweight 2d ago