BBAI

BBAI Earnings Preview

BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. · Technology · $2B

8d until earnings

BBAI Earnings

Thursday, Apr 30 2026
Revenue Estimate
$34M
Current Price
$3.79

Our Position

neutral

Debt-free balance sheet, but revenue missed and 2026 outlook tepid

structured data est. revisions stable

Balance sheet strength alone doesn't drive valuation when the top line is flat and guidance implies single-digit growth. The company's net cash position ($462 million) gives it runway, but investors are pricing in execution risk on defense contracts and Ask Sage integration. Until guidance inflects and margins expand, the stock remains a turnaround play, not a growth story.

Watch: Track whether Q1 2026 contract wins or adjusted EBITDA beats narrow FY2026 guidance — either would justify the analyst consensus upside to $6.00–$8.00. Management commentary on defense budget pacing and Ask Sage revenue contribution will be the real test of whether this is a cash-rich turnaround or a stalled acquisition.

Data Signal Summary

1 bullish
3 bearish
Estimates down -7% Insider selling cluster Put/call 0.2 (bullish skew) Price downtrend

Key Context

Insider Activity
selling
Price Trend
downtrend
From 52w High
-1.6%
Est. Revisions (30d)
-6.7% 0up/1dn
Analyst Target (mean)
$5 $5–$6 +41%
Options P/C Ratio
0.16
Est. Dispersion
100% 3 analysts
Insider Cluster
strong sell

Recent Activity

insider trades 85 transactions
Award · RICKER SEAN RAYMOND (Chief Financial Officer) ·122,107 shares
Award · BLANKENSHIP CAROLYN (General Counsel) ·125,923 shares
Award · MCALEENAN KEVIN (Chief Executive Officer) ·290,730 shares
Sell · BRADEN PAMELA JOYCE (Director) ·80,000 shares ·$320,000
Sell · HAYES DOROTHY D. (Director) ·17,000 shares ·$67,660
80 more
Award · RICKER SEAN RAYMOND ·49,999 shr
Award · BLANKENSHIP CAROLYN ·36,143 shr
Award · MCALEENAN KEVIN ·104,311 shr
Award · FULCHINO PAUL E ·18,650 shr
Sell · RICKER SEAN RAYMOND ·5,000 shr ·$35,296
Sell · HAYES DOROTHY D. ·22,000 shr ·$133,870
Award · RICKER SEAN RAYMOND ·200,000 shr
Sell · RICKER SEAN RAYMOND ·11,980 shr ·$64,093
Sell · HAYES DOROTHY D. ·30,000 shr ·$174,900
Award · EVANGELISTA ANTHONY ·15,092 shr
Award · RICKER SEAN RAYMOND ·39,788 shr
Award · HAYES DOROTHY D. ·32,911 shr
Award · FULCHINO PAUL E ·32,911 shr
Award · CANNITO PETER ANTHONY JR ·32,911 shr
Award · BRADEN PAMELA JOYCE ·32,911 shr
Award · BATTLE SEAN BERNARD ·32,911 shr
Award · PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C. ·65,822 shr
Sell · PEFFER JULIE ·50,000 shr ·$220,233
Sell · HAYES DOROTHY D. ·26,000 shr ·$93,600
Sell · PEFFER JULIE ·45,924 shr ·$159,845
Sell · PEFFER JULIE ·20,000 shr ·$65,000
Sell · RICKER SEAN RAYMOND ·14,063 shr ·$42,892
Sell · RICKER SEAN RAYMOND ·19,515 shr ·$62,987
Sell · PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C. ·27,430,402 shr ·$78,450,950
Sell · RICKER SEAN RAYMOND ·27,757 shr ·$80,218
Sell · RICKER SEAN RAYMOND ·2,066 shr ·$5,991
Award · RICKER SEAN RAYMOND ·125,284 shr
Award · BLANKENSHIP CAROLYN ·151,442 shr
Award · PEFFER JULIE ·146,853 shr
Award · MCALEENAN KEVIN ·349,650 shr
Sell · PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C. ·5,150 shr ·$18,076
Sell · RICKER SEAN RAYMOND ·36,166 shr ·$132,006
Sell · PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C. ·7,531,233 shr ·$26,446,044
Sell · PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C. ·5,336,945 shr ·$17,686,635
Sell · HAYES DOROTHY D. ·16,000 shr ·$52,640
Sell · PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C. ·5,798,134 shr ·$19,455,122
Sell · PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C. ·8,239,383 shr ·$36,738,688
Sell · PANGIAM ULTIMATE HOLDINGS, L.L.C. ·9,640,898 shr ·$47,187,658
Award · RICKER SEAN RAYMOND ·45,884 shr
Award · BLANKENSHIP CAROLYN ·55,464 shr
Award · PEFFER JULIE ·112,945 shr
Award · MCALEENAN KEVIN ·134,887 shr
Award · FULCHINO PAUL E ·11,338 shr
Award · CANNITO PETER ANTHONY JR ·25,850 shr
Award · BRADEN PAMELA JOYCE ·21,542 shr
Award · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·43,878 shr
Award · MCALEENAN KEVIN ·628,931 shr
Sell · LONG AMANDA B ·66,140 shr ·$297,630
Sell · RICKER SEAN RAYMOND ·2,067 shr ·$8,330
Sell · BATTLE SEAN BERNARD ·44,813 shr ·$199,866
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·6,075,697 shr ·$25,214,143
Sell · LONG AMANDA B ·200,000 shr ·$850,000
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·153,250 shr ·$432,165
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·10,748,468 shr ·$33,632,060
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·9,863,730 shr ·$26,860,949
Sell · RICKER SEAN RAYMOND ·17,629 shr ·$50,595
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·13,150,259 shr ·$48,943,607
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·6,328,238 shr ·$21,452,727
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·8,303,822 shr ·$23,591,429
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·6,284,969 shr ·$15,998,481
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·1,962,329 shr ·$4,324,305
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·3,257,531 shr ·$7,495,368
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·4,204,470 shr ·$9,792,277
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·395,623 shr ·$707,937
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·457,517 shr ·$813,921
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·3,953,626 shr ·$7,498,794
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·1,240,243 shr ·$2,182,828
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·859,317 shr ·$1,520,991
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·578,923 shr ·$1,024,363
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·5,500 shr ·$9,625
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·399,609 shr ·$707,106
Sell · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·1,011,857 shr ·$1,792,325
Award · HAYES DOROTHY D. ·87,838 shr
Award · FULCHINO PAUL E ·87,838 shr
Award · CANNITO PETER ANTHONY JR ·87,838 shr
Award · BRADEN PAMELA JOYCE ·87,838 shr
Award · BATTLE SEAN BERNARD ·87,838 shr
Award · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·175,676 shr
Award · BBAI ULTIMATE HOLDINGS LLC ·2,144,073 shr ·$2,881,420
Buy · BRADEN PAMELA JOYCE ·140,939 shr ·$209,999