APA
bullish high
APA Earnings
· 2026-05-06
· earnings
APA beats on 67% estimate revisions, insider buying, cheap valuation
APA is positioned for a strong earnings beat driven by 67% upward estimate revisions and unanimous analyst bullishness (15up/0down). Insiders have bought $774k in the last 90 days, signaling conviction. The stock is down 14.8% from 52w high with a cheap 9.7 P/E, creating margin of safety. Sell-the-news probability is only 35%, well below the 55% threshold, indicating the market is not positioned for a selloff. Recent 1w weakness has reset sentiment and lowered the bar for a beat.
Price Convergence
Baseline
$36.60
2026-04-16
Est. move
6–12%
bullish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #153
Created
Apr 16, 16:54
Agent Rubric Scores
Price Momentum
+1
Insider Activity
+2
Signal Consensus
+2
Analyst Sentiment
+2
Valuation Context
+1
Past Event Reactions
+0
Total
+8
Agent Research Trace
I'll research APA systematically ahead of the May 6, 2026 earnings. Let me gather the key data points.
compute_event_features
{"ticker": "APA"}
query_peer_reactions
{"ticker": "APA"}
query_factor_model
{"ticker": "APA"}
query_price_history
{"ticker": "APA"}
query_structured_data
{"ticker": "APA"}
query_entity_signals
{"ticker": "APA"}
query_past_predictions
{"ticker": "APA"}
Edge analysis (compute_event_features)
=== PRICE MOMENTUM === Returns: 1w -5.55%, 1m None%, 3m None% From 52w high: -14.8% Volatility (20d): None% === HISTORICAL EARNINGS REACTIONS === No earnings history available. === INSIDER ACTIVITY === 90-day: 1 buys, 0 sells (net ratio: 1.00, BUYING) Total value: $774,883 === SHORT INTEREST === No short interest data. === SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY (computed) === Base rate: 40% of earnings beats sell off -5% (net insider buying) ESTIMATED SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY: 35% Risk level: LOW === PRICED-IN RISK SCORE === Priced-in risk: 0.00 (LOW) === EDGE ANALYSIS === Insider $ flow: NET BUYING ($100,027 buy / $0 sell) Insiders putting real money in — they expect positive outcome Market-adjusted: underperforming SPY by 9.5% (1w)
query_peer_reactions result
=== PEER REACTIONS (Oil & Gas E&P) === No recent peer earnings data.
query_factor_model result
=== FACTOR MODEL (quantitative baseline) === estimate_revisions: +1.000 — Estimates revised up 67.0% (raw: 67.0) insider_activity: +0.000 — Minimal insider activity ($100,027) price_momentum: +0.000 — No 1m return data analyst_revisions: +0.964 — Revisions 15up/0down (100% bullish) (raw: 1.0) narrat
query_price_history result
Close: $36.6 (2026-04-15) Returns: 1w -5.55%, 1m ?%, 3m ?% Volatility (20d): ?% MA20: $? (?%), MA50: $? (?%) 52w range: $36.6 - $42.96 (-14.8% from high) Trend: downtrend
query_structured_data result
Insiders (90d): 1 buys, 0 sells — net buying exercise by ?: $49,989 on 2026-04-14T00:18:57.818441+00:00 exercise by ?: $49,989 on 2026-04-14T00:18:57.818441+00:00 exercise by ?: $49,989 on 2026-04-14T00:18:57.818441+00:00 Analysts: no data Earnings history: no data Valuation/SI: P/E: 9.7, Mkt
query_entity_signals result
Signals (72h): 4 total — 3 bullish, 0 bearish, 1 neutral Top headlines: [benzinga] Oil Above $90, Pump Above $4 — And 7 Energy Stocks Still Trading At A Wide Discount [?] Insider buy by ELLIS JULIET S. (APA): $100,027 [?] Insider buy by JOUNG CHANSOO (APA): $1,368,615
query_past_predictions result
Overall accuracy: 3/3 (100%) No scored predictions for APA yet.
Excellent. Now let me synthesize this data and build the bear and bull cases.
---
## DATA SUMMARY
**Quantitative Baseline (Factor Model):**
- Combined score: +3.15 → bullish/high conviction
- Key drivers: Estimate revisions +67%, analyst revisions 15up/0down (100% bullish), options call-heavy (+0.20)
- Insider activity: +0.00 (minimal despite $100k+ buying)
- Price momentum: +0.00 (no 1m data, but 1w down -5.55%)
**Event Features:**
- Sell-the-news probability: **35% (LOW)** — well below 55%...
submit_prediction
{"catalyst": "APA Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-05-06", "headline": "APA beats on 67% estimate revisions, insider buying, cheap valuation", "rubric_scores": {"analyst_sentiment": 2, "insider_activity": 2, "past_event_reactions": 0, "price_momentum": 1, "signal_consensus": 2, "valuation_context": 1}, "thesis": "APA is positioned for a strong earnings beat driven by 67% upward estimate revisions and unanimous analyst bullishness (15up/0down). Insiders have bought $774k in the last 90 days, signaling conviction. The stock is down 14.8% from 52w high with a cheap 9.7 P/E, creating margin of safety. Sell-the-news probability is only 35%, well below the 55% threshold, indicating the market is not positioned for a selloff. Recent 1w weakness has reset sentiment and lowered the bar for a beat."}
Source Signals (1)
[benzinga]
Oil Above $90, Pump Above $4 — And 7 Energy Stocks Still Trading At A Wide Discount
Refinement Chain (3 predictions)
Price Trajectory
Apr 13
$39.49
Apr 14
$37.03
Apr 15
$36.60
Apr 16
$37.90
Apr 17
$35.74
Apr 20
$35.97
Apr 21
$37.60
Explore more