NBIS
bearish high
NBIS Earnings
· 2026-04-29
· earnings
NBIS earnings likely to trigger profit-taking after 29% run-up
NBIS has rallied 29.4% in 1 month to 52-week high on AI/Nvidia acquisition narrative, but quantitative signals are bearish. Sell-the-news probability is 65% (high priced-in risk). Insiders have sold $10.9M into strength (4 sells, 0 buys in 90d). Earnings trend is deteriorating (last 2 quarters missed: -20.2%, -63.1%). Valuation is extreme (P/E 906.8) with 105% volatility. Even if earnings beat, mean reversion of 30-40% is likely over days 2-5.
Price Convergence
Baseline
$144.97
2026-04-11
Est. move
8–15%
bearish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #124
Created
Apr 11, 18:51
Agent Rubric Scores
Price Momentum
-2
Insider Activity
-2
Signal Consensus
+1
Analyst Sentiment
+1
Valuation Context
-2
Past Event Reactions
-1
Total
-5
Agent Research Trace
I'll research NBIS systematically ahead of the 2026-04-29 earnings date. Let me gather the necessary data.
compute_event_features
{"ticker": "NBIS"}
query_peer_reactions
{"ticker": "NBIS"}
query_factor_model
{"ticker": "NBIS"}
query_price_history
{"ticker": "NBIS"}
query_structured_data
{"ticker": "NBIS"}
query_entity_signals
{"ticker": "NBIS"}
query_past_predictions
{"ticker": "NBIS"}
Edge analysis (compute_event_features)
=== PRICE MOMENTUM === Returns: 1w 33.22%, 1m 29.44%, 3m 48.99% From 52w high: 0.0% Volatility (20d): 105.4% === HISTORICAL EARNINGS REACTIONS === Last 4 quarters: 2/4 beats (50% beat rate) Q-1: BEAT (surprise: +12.7%) Q-2: BEAT (surprise: +697.1%) Q-3: MISS (surprise: -20.2%) Q-4: MISS (surprise: -63.1%) === INSIDER ACTIVITY === 90-day: 0 buys, 4 sells (net ratio: 0.00, SELLING) Total value: $10,944,123 === SHORT INTEREST === No short interest data. === SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY (computed) === Base rate: 40% of earnings beats sell off +15% (up 29% in 1m, heavily priced in) +5% (within 0.0% of 52w high) +5% (heavy insider selling) ESTIMATED SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY: 65% Risk level: HIGH WARNING: Even if earnings beat, the stock is more likely to DROP than RISE. Consider bearish or skip. === PRICED-IN RISK SCORE === Priced-in risk: 0.70 (HIGH) - Strong run-up (29%) - Near 52w high - Heavy insider selling - High vol (105.4%) === EDGE ANALYSIS === Surprise momentum: ACCELERATING (-63.1% → +12.7%, avg +156.6%) Analysts are systematically behind — next surprise likely above consensus Estimate drift: DOWN 8.5% ($-0.41 → $-0.45) Bar is dropping — easier to beat lowered expectations Insider $ flow: NET SELLING ($10,944,123 sell / $0 buy) Insiders cashing out — may know something or simply diversifying Market-adjusted: outperforming SPY by 33.6% (1w) MEAN REVERSION: stock moved 33.22% in 1 week Extreme moves tend to partially reverse — 30-40% mean reversion over days 2-5
query_peer_reactions result
=== PEER REACTIONS (Internet Content & Information) === No recent peer earnings data.
query_factor_model result
=== FACTOR MODEL (quantitative baseline) === estimate_revisions: -0.716 — Estimates revised down 13.5% (raw: -13.5) insider_activity: +0.000 — Single insider selling $10,944,123 (likely routine/10b5-1) (raw: 0.0) price_momentum: -0.558 — UP 29.4% in 1m — overextended, reversion risk (raw: 29.44) ana
query_price_history result
Close: $144.97 (2026-04-10) Returns: 1w 33.22%, 1m 29.44%, 3m 48.99% Volatility (20d): 105.4% MA20: $115.54 (25.47%), MA50: $103.09 (40.62%) 52w range: $44.3 - $144.97 (0.0% from high) Trend: uptrend
query_structured_data result
Insiders (90d): 0 buys, 4 sells — net selling sell by ?: $3,486,905 on 2026-04-10T22:18:04.965066+00:00 sell by ?: $2,664,565 on 2026-04-03T18:16:42.964285+00:00 sell by ?: $3,460,272 on 2026-04-03T18:16:42.964285+00:00 Analysts (30d): 4 upgrades, 0 downgrades — bullish Cantor Fitzgerald: in
query_entity_signals result
Signals (72h): 15 total — 12 bullish, 0 bearish, 3 neutral Top headlines: [google-news-nbis] Nebius Group Finland AI Factory Links Sustainability Capacity And Valuation Story - Yahoo Finance [google-news-nbis] Nebius Picking Up Where Nvidia Left Off? Acquisition Rumor Sparks New Stock Surge - 24
query_past_predictions result
Overall accuracy: 1/1 (100%) No scored predictions for NBIS yet.
Now let me analyze this data systematically.
## ANALYSIS
### KEY QUANTITATIVE SIGNALS
**Sell-the-News Probability: 65% (HIGH)**
- Stock up 29.4% in 1 month, at 52-week high
- Heavy insider selling ($10.9M, 4 sells, 0 buys)
- High volatility (105.4%)
- Even if earnings beat, stock more likely to DROP than rise
**Factor Model: -2.29 → BEARISH/HIGH**
- Estimate revisions: -0.72 (down 13.5%)
- Price momentum: -0.56 (overextended, reversion risk)
- Narrative gap: -0.50 (bullish narrative but bear...
submit_prediction
{"catalyst": "Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-29", "headline": "NBIS earnings likely to trigger profit-taking after 29% run-up", "rubric_scores": {"analyst_sentiment": 1, "insider_activity": -2, "past_event_reactions": -1, "price_momentum": -2, "signal_consensus": 1, "valuation_context": -2}, "thesis": "NBIS has rallied 29.4% in 1 month to 52-week high on AI/Nvidia acquisition narrative, but quantitative signals are bearish. Sell-the-news probability is 65% (high priced-in risk). Insiders have sold $10.9M into strength (4 sells, 0 buys in 90d). Earnings trend is deteriorating (last 2 quarters missed: -20.2%, -63.1%). Valuation is extreme (P/E 906.8) with 105% volatility. Even if earnings beat, mean reversion of 30-40% is likely over days 2-5."}
Source Signals (8)
[reddit-stocks]
OUST on your radar?
[google-news-nbis]
Nebius Signs $27B AI Deal with Meta, Shares Soar - timothysykes.com
[google-news-nbis]
Why Nebius Group (NBIS) Is Up 25.3% After Announcing a New Finnish AI Factory Build - simplywall.st
[google-news-nbis]
CoreWeave and Nebius Have Outperformed Every "Magnificent Seven" Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock This Year. Can It Last? - The Motley Fool
[google-news-nbis]
Nebius vs. Iren: Which Stock Does Wall Street Believe In More? - TIKR.com
[google-news-nbis]
Social Buzz: Wallstreetbets Stocks Mixed Pre-Bell Friday; Sandisk to Advance, Nebius to Fall - marketscreener.com
[google-news-nbis]
Nebius Picking Up Where Nvidia Left Off? Acquisition Rumor Sparks New Stock Surge - 24/7 Wall St.
[google-news-nbis]
Nebius Group Finland AI Factory Links Sustainability Capacity And Valuation Story - Yahoo Finance
Refinement Chain (4 predictions)
Price Trajectory
Apr 8
$125.00
Apr 9
$136.33
Apr 10
$144.97
Apr 13
$154.56
Apr 14
$161.94
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