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LMT

LMT

bearish medium
LMT Earnings · 2026-04-23 · earnings

LMT faces analyst headwinds and insider selling despite beat history

LMT has a 75% historical beat rate, but recent signals suggest deteriorating confidence: analysts have cut estimates 2.6% with 0 upgrades / 3 downgrades in the broader trend, insiders have sold $10.7M with zero buys in 90 days (pre-earnings timing is suspicious), and 4 filing changes introduced 2 new high-materiality risk items. At P/E 29.0 near 52w highs, valuation leaves no margin for error. While sell-the-news probability is moderate at 45%, the combination of analyst cuts, insider selling, and filing risks outweighs the beat history.

Price Convergence

Baseline
$637.90
2026-04-07
Est. move
2–5%
bearish
Model
agent-v1
prediction #111
Created
Apr 7, 08:48

Agent Rubric Scores

Price Momentum
-1
Insider Activity
-1
Signal Consensus
+0
Analyst Sentiment
-1
Valuation Context
-1
Past Event Reactions
+1
Total -3

Agent Research Trace

I'll research LMT systematically ahead of the 2026-04-21 earnings date. Let me gather the necessary data.
compute_event_features {"ticker": "LMT"}
query_peer_reactions {"ticker": "LMT"}
query_factor_model {"ticker": "LMT"}
query_price_history {"ticker": "LMT"}
query_structured_data {"ticker": "LMT"}
query_entity_signals {"ticker": "LMT"}
query_past_predictions {"ticker": "LMT"}
Edge analysis (compute_event_features) 
=== PRICE MOMENTUM ===
Returns: 1w 3.58%, 1m -2.61%, 3m 29.01%
From 52w high: -5.73%
Volatility (20d): 23.6%

=== HISTORICAL EARNINGS REACTIONS ===
Last 4 quarters: 3/4 beats (75% beat rate)
  Q-1: BEAT (surprise: +14.7%)
  Q-2: MISS (surprise: -77.6%)
  Q-3: BEAT (surprise: +9.3%)
  Q-4: BEAT (surprise: +0.9%)

=== INSIDER ACTIVITY ===
90-day: 0 buys, 5 sells (net ratio: 0.00, SELLING)
Total value: $10,681,188

=== SHORT INTEREST ===
No short interest data.

=== SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY (computed) ===
Base rate: 40% of earnings beats sell off
  +5% (heavy insider selling)
ESTIMATED SELL-THE-NEWS PROBABILITY: 45%
Risk level: MODERATE

=== PRICED-IN RISK SCORE ===
Priced-in risk: 0.25 (MODERATE)
  - Consistent beats (75%)
  - Heavy insider selling

=== EDGE ANALYSIS ===
Surprise momentum: ACCELERATING (+0.9% → +14.7%, avg -13.2%)
  Analysts are systematically behind — next surprise likely above consensus
Estimate drift: DOWN 2.6% ($6.51 → $6.35)
Insider $ flow: NET SELLING ($10,681,188 sell / $0 buy)
  Insiders cashing out — may know something or simply diversifying
query_peer_reactions result 
=== PEER REACTIONS (Aerospace & Defense) ===
  No recent peer earnings data.
query_factor_model result 
=== FACTOR MODEL (quantitative baseline) ===
estimate_revisions: -0.113 — Estimates revised down 1.7% (raw: -1.7)
insider_activity: +0.000 — Single insider selling $10,681,188 (likely routine/10b5-1) (raw: 0.0)
price_momentum: -0.214 — Flat (-2.6% in 1m) (raw: -2.61)
analyst_revisions: -0.964 — Revi
query_price_history result 
Close: $637.9 (2026-04-06)
Returns: 1w 3.58%, 1m -2.61%, 3m 29.01%
Volatility (20d): 23.6%
MA20: $631.38 (1.03%), MA50: $633.69 (0.66%)
52w range: $402.57 - $676.7 (-5.73% from high)
Trend: uptrend
query_structured_data result 
Insiders (90d): 0 buys, 5 sells — net selling
  sell by ?: $3,000,551 on 2026-03-17T00:19:27.767775+00:00
  other by ?: undisclosed on 2026-03-12T08:17:35.053104+00:00
  other by ?: undisclosed on 2026-03-12T08:17:35.053104+00:00
Analysts (30d): 1 upgrades, 0 downgrades — bullish
  Citigroup: main →
query_entity_signals result 
Signals (72h): 7 total — 3 bullish, 0 bearish, 4 neutral
Top headlines:
  [yahoo-finance] Better Defense Stock: Lockheed Martin vs. RTX
  [?] LMT 10-K filing change: Updated percentages and details of international sales a
  [?] LMT 10-K filing change: Changes in presentation and terminology regardi
query_past_predictions result 
Overall accuracy: 0/0 (n/a)
No scored predictions for LMT yet.
Now let me analyze this data systematically. ## DATA SUMMARY **Event Features (Quantitative Risk Analysis):** - **Sell-the-news probability: 45%** (MODERATE) — below the 55% threshold, but still meaningful - **Priced-in risk: 0.25** (MODERATE) — market has moderate expectations built in - **Beat rate: 75%** (3/4 last quarters) — strong historical consistency - **Insider activity: NET SELLING** ($10.7M sold, 0 buys) — heavy selling in 90d - **Estimate drift: DOWN 2.6%** ($6.51 → $6.35) — analys...
submit_prediction {"catalyst": "Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-21", "headline": "LMT faces analyst headwinds and insider selling despite beat history", "rubric_scores": {"analyst_sentiment": -1, "insider_activity": -1, "past_event_reactions": 1, "price_momentum": -1, "signal_consensus": 0, "valuation_context": -1}, "thesis": "LMT has a 75% historical beat rate, but recent signals suggest deteriorating confidence: analysts have cut estimates 2.6% with 0 upgrades / 3 downgrades in the broader trend, insiders have sold $10.7M with zero buys in 90 days (pre-earnings timing is suspicious), and 4 filing changes introduced 2 new high-materiality risk items. At P/E 29.0 near 52w highs, valuation leaves no margin for error. While sell-the-news probability is moderate at 45%, the combination of analyst cuts, insider selling, and filing risks outweighs the beat history."}

Source Signals (1)

[yahoo-finance] Better Defense Stock: Lockheed Martin vs. RTX

Refinement Chain (2 predictions)

#116 ▼ LMT faces analyst headwinds and insider selling despite beat... active view
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Price Trajectory

Apr 6
$637.90
Apr 7
$627.70
Apr 8
$628.50
Apr 9
$623.87
Apr 10
$613.72
Apr 13
$619.69
Apr 14
$611.58

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