XOM Exxon Mobil Corporation

bearish 1/3 shifts correct ↓ $145.26 -1.70 (-1.2%)
Mkt Cap $602B P/E 24.5 fwd 13.6 52wk $101.73 - $176.41 Earnings beating Updated Saturday
What We Found Primary source analysis others skip
SEC Filing Changes
MEDIUM
REMOVED items

The prior filing contained multi-year data tables with production volumes including crude oil, natural gas liquids, natural gas, bitumen, and synthetic oil broken down by region through 2022-2024. These tables and their related narrative were not included in the current filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-18
MEDIUM
REMOVED items

The prior filing provided detailed average production prices and costs by region and product type for 2022-2024. This extensive quantitative data is missing in the current filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-18
MEDIUM
Material LANGUAGE CHANGES

Prior filing describes risk factors generally without detailed pricing context. Current filing adds language specifying that crude prices remained within historic ranges in 2025, natural gas prices surged, and prices will be influenced by many factors including government policies, technology, and OPEC actions. Specific projects like Guyana FPSO developments and Permian growth are highlighted in the context of earnings impacts.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-18
HIGH
Material LANGUAGE CHANGES

The prior filing's risk factors focused heavily on the proved reserves estimation process, internal controls, drilling and exploration activities, and asset base details. The current filing reframes the risk factor discussion towards market price volatility, geopolitical factors, supply-demand dynamics, and includes detailed financial performance metrics and capital resource management. This represents a material change in the focus and content of the risk factors disclosures.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-18
MEDIUM
REMOVED items

The prior filing included detailed refinery and chemical manufacturing capacities worldwide with ExxonMobil interest shares, and the number and location of retail fuel sites by region. These operational capacity and retail presence data are absent in the current filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-18
MEDIUM
REMOVED items

The prior filing contained summary tables and extensive information on gross and net productive wells, developed and undeveloped acreage, terms of leases and concessions by country/region, and detailed regulatory and contractual terms affecting exploration and production rights. This information is not present in the current filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-18
MEDIUM
REMOVED items

The prior filing reported the number of net productive and dry wells drilled by region and year, exploratory and development activities, mining technologies used, wells drilling data, and descriptions of ongoing activities in various global regions. This comprehensive operational data has been omitted in the current filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-18
MEDIUM
REMOVED items

The prior filing had a detailed discussion and data on 7.4 billion oil-equivalent barrels of proved undeveloped reserves at year-end 2024, transfers, additions, reclassifications, investment amounts, and specifics by country (Australia, Kazakhstan, UAE). This entire section is absent in the current filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-18
MEDIUM
REMOVED items

The prior filing detailed the process for estimating proved reserves, the technologies used, the qualifications and internal controls of the reserves group, and related governance practices. The current filing omits these detailed disclosures related to reserves estimation process.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-18
HIGH
NEW items added

The current filing provides insight into net cash provided by operating, investing, and financing activities in 2025 versus prior years, details about credit facilities, commercial paper usage, and funding strategies. It discusses the variability of production related to project startups and field decline. This information is new compared to the prior filing.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-18
HIGH
NEW items added

The current filing includes income statements, analyses of earnings drivers for Upstream, Energy Products, Chemical Products, Specialty Products, and Corporate & Financing segments with dollar impacts and performance commentary. It includes Identified Items and Non-GAAP measures. The prior filing does not contain such detailed financial and earnings driver disclosures for 2025.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-18
HIGH
NEW items added

The 2026 filing describes specific developments in the Guyana FPSO vessels, Permian production reaching record volumes, and LNG projects. It provides production volume data for crude oil, natural gas liquids, natural gas, and oil-equivalent production across various regions for 2025, with comparisons to previous years. This detailed operational and production data is new compared to the prior filing that covered only through 2024.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-18
HIGH
NEW items added

The current filing adds a detailed discussion on crude prices in 2025, including that crude prices remained within the 10-year historical range (2010-2019), natural gas prices exceeded the top of this range, and long-term price drivers including supply/demand, economic activity, government policies, and alternative energy sources. This contrasts with the prior filing which did not include this market overview.

10-K · Filed 2026-02-18
Material Events (8-K)
8-K
Operational Disruption due to Middle East Conflict Bearish

ExxonMobil reported production disruptions in Middle East assets due to the ongoing conflict, affecting about 6% of global oil-equivalent production in Q1 2026, particularly in Qatar LNG facilities. T...

Filed 2026-04-08
8-K
Departure of Director

Mr. Jeffrey W. Ubben announced he will not stand for re-election to Exxon's board at the May 27, 2026 annual meeting, but will remain on the board until then. His departure is for reasons unrelated to...

Filed 2026-02-20 · Mr. Jeffrey W. Ubben, Darren Woods, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
8-K
Earnings Release Bullish $28.8 billion earnings, $52.0 billion cash flow, $37.2 billi…

ExxonMobil announced its 2025 results with earnings of $28.8 billion and cash flow from operations of $52.0 billion. Key highlights include the highest upstream production in over 40 years, record ref...

Filed 2026-01-30 · Darren Woods, Chairman and CEO
8-K
Earnings Outlook Approximately $1.2 billion in impairments

XOM provided an outlook for 4Q 2025 earnings that details various market and planned factors expected to impact results relative to 3Q 2025. Significant influences include changes in liquids and gas p...

Filed 2026-01-07
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: estimate_revisions, insider_activity, analyst_revisions, narrative_gap bullish vs price_
Est. revisions: +10.2% (10 up, 5 down in 30d)
Factor Model (net +0.8)

Factor Model

net +0.8 4.4 / 10
Est. Revisions
+0.6
Insider Activity
+0.5
Momentum
-0.5
Analyst Rev.
+0.6
Narrative Gap
+0.5
Filing Risk
+13.0

Exxon warns oil supply crisis could spike prices

Watch: Monitor inventory levels and Brent crude price movements as the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz closure persist.

Exxon Mobil warns global oil inventories are near record lows, expected within 2-3 weeks, risking a sharp Brent crude price spike to $150-$160 per barrel. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed 14 million barrels per day from markets. IEA released 400 million barrels in March, but consumption continues briskly despite July Brent futures settling below $94. This heightens supply risks amid Middle East tensions.

Such an inventory crunch could trigger significant oil price volatility, benefiting Exxon’s revenue but raising market risk from geopolitical factors and supply disruptions.

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Evidence

Fundamentals & Data ▾
Exxon Mobil Corporation Energy · Oil & Gas Integrated
Mkt Cap
$602B
P/E
24.5 fwd 13.6
Beta
0.18
Div Yield
284.00%
52w Range
$101.73 - $176.41
Short Interest
40.9M 1.1%
Days to Cover
2.4 -5%
Technicals downtrend
vs 20d MA
-4.3%
vs 50d MA
-6.1%
from 52w Hi
-15.3%
Vol (20d)
33%
1w return
-6.5%
1m return
-6.1%
3m return
-4.8%
Vol ratio
1.0x
Insiders
selling 1B / 3S
Analysts
mixed 1 up / 1 down
Earnings
beating 4B / 0M
EPS Estimate
$3.72 +10.2% 30d 10up / 5dn
Est. Dispersion
95% 18 analysts
Analyst Target
$170 $130 - $185
Options P/C
0.49 2C / 0P unusual
Fund Convergence
strong D.E. Shaw, Citadel, Renaissance
Financials
Revenue
$83.2B +3% YoY
FCF
$2.2B
Gross Margin
17%
Op Margin
6%
Momentum: accelerating
Top Holders
D.E. Shaw $2.5B
Citadel $1.2B
Renaissance
Recent Filings & Data
material event 11

ExxonMobil reported production disruptions in Middle East assets due to the ongoing conflict, affecting about 6% of global oil-equivalent production in Q1 2026, particularly in Qatar LNG facilities. The disruptions also impact 5% of global refining and chemical capacity, expected to reduce global Energy Products throughput by about 2%. No specific dollar amounts were disclosed. This situation is generally bearish due to production and operational impacts. SEC↗

Mr. Jeffrey W. Ubben announced he will not stand for re-election to Exxon's board at the May 27, 2026 annual meeting, but will remain on the board until then. His departure is for reasons unrelated to the company. Darren Woods, CEO, acknowledged Mr. Ubben's valuable contributions during his five years on the board. SEC↗

ExxonMobil announced its 2025 results with earnings of $28.8 billion and cash flow from operations of $52.0 billion. Key highlights include the highest upstream production in over 40 years, record refinery throughput, shareholder distributions totaling $37.2 billion, and successful delivery of 10 key projects adding $3 billion in earnings. The company achieved its 2030 corporate greenhouse gas emissions and flaring intensity reduction plans ahead of schedule. Darren Woods, Chairman and CEO, highlighted the company's transformation towards a more resilient and technology-led business with strong earnings power and disciplined capital allocation. No departures or agreements were reported. SEC↗

XOM provided an outlook for 4Q 2025 earnings that details various market and planned factors expected to impact results relative to 3Q 2025. Significant influences include changes in liquids and gas prices, industry margins, timing effects, scheduled maintenance, year-end inventory effects, and identified items such as divestments, impairments, restructuring charges, and tax-related items. Estimated impairments total approximately $1.2 billion impacting upstream and chemical segments, with divestments and other charges also noted. No individual people or management changes were mentioned. Overall, this update is a neutral informational outlook on prospective earnings rather than a direct material event or change in leadership. SEC↗

Kathryn A. Mikells announced her retirement as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Exxon Mobil Corporation, effective February 1, 2026, due to health reasons. Neil A. Hansen was elected as her successor, effective the same date. Hansen has held various executive roles within ExxonMobil, most recently as President of ExxonMobil Global Business Solutions. No dollar amounts or employment contracts were disclosed. SEC↗

6 more
Greg C. Garland was elected as a new non-employee director of Exxon Mobil Corpor
ExxonMobil reported strong third-quarter 2025 earnings of $7.5 billion ($1.76 pe
Exxon Mobil Corporation furnished information regarding its 3Q25 earnings consid
ExxonMobil announced second-quarter 2025 earnings of $7.1 billion ($1.64 per dil
Exxon Mobil Corporation filed an 8-K under Item 7.01 Regulation FD Disclosure, p
ExxonMobil announced first-quarter 2025 earnings of $7.7 billion and cash flow f
filing change 13
MEDIUM REMOVED items: Detailed tables on historical oil, natural gas, bitumen, and synthetic oil production volumes removed.
full analysis

The prior filing contained multi-year data tables with production volumes including crude oil, natural gas liquids, natural gas, bitumen, and synthetic oil broken down by region through 2022-2024. These tables and their related narrative were not included in the current filing.

MEDIUM REMOVED items: Production prices and average production costs data tables removed.
full analysis

The prior filing provided detailed average production prices and costs by region and product type for 2022-2024. This extensive quantitative data is missing in the current filing.

MEDIUM Material LANGUAGE CHANGES: Risk factor language about crude price impacts elaborated with more detail on market drivers and key projects.
full analysis

Prior filing describes risk factors generally without detailed pricing context. Current filing adds language specifying that crude prices remained within historic ranges in 2025, natural gas prices surged, and prices will be influenced by many factors including government policies, technology, and OPEC actions. Specific projects like Guyana FPSO developments and Permian growth are highlighted in the context of earnings impacts.

HIGH Material LANGUAGE CHANGES: Shift from detailed reserve estimation and operational data to forward-looking market analysis and financial results.
full analysis

The prior filing's risk factors focused heavily on the proved reserves estimation process, internal controls, drilling and exploration activities, and asset base details. The current filing reframes the risk factor discussion towards market price volatility, geopolitical factors, supply-demand dynamics, and includes detailed financial performance metrics and capital resource management. This represents a material change in the focus and content of the risk factors disclosures.

MEDIUM REMOVED items: Information on refining, chemical capacity, and retail fuel sites removed.
full analysis

The prior filing included detailed refinery and chemical manufacturing capacities worldwide with ExxonMobil interest shares, and the number and location of retail fuel sites by region. These operational capacity and retail presence data are absent in the current filing.

8 more
MEDIUM Detailed acreage summaries and terms of leases and concessions removed.
MEDIUM Information on drilling activities, wells drilled, and exploratory and development activities remove...
MEDIUM Extensive quantitative data on proved undeveloped reserves and their development timeframe removed.
MEDIUM Risk Factor disclosure on estimation of proved reserves, technologies used, internal controls, and q...
HIGH Disclosure of liquidity and capital resources including cash flow, capital expenditures, debt, and l...
HIGH Detailed financial results and earnings driver analysis by segment for 2025.
HIGH Extensive new operational details on key projects and production volumes in 2025.
HIGH Significant new information added about crude prices and market factors in 2025.
Track Record (1/3 correct) ▾

Direction History

1/3 correct at 5 days
2026-05-04 bearish -2.6%
2026-04-12 bullish -4.0%
2026-04-06 bullish -6.6%
15 signals · latest Updated Saturday

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