VALE Vale S.A.

bullish SHIFT track record → $16.25 -0.30 (-1.8%)
Mkt Cap $70B P/E 25.0 fwd 8.3 52wk $8.97 - $17.94 Updated Thursday
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We disagree with Wall Street. Analyst consensus: bearish. Our position: bullish. See factor model below for why.
Factor divergence: DIVERGENCE: price_momentum bullish vs estimate_revisions, narrative_gap bearish
Est. revisions: -13.3% (1 up, 1 down in 30d)
Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)
Factor Model (net -1.4)

Factor Model

net -1.4 5.0 / 10
Est. Revisions
-0.7
Insider Activity
+0.0
Momentum
+0.2
Analyst Rev.
+0.0
Narrative Gap
-0.5

Vale's short interest drops 23% sharply

Watch: Watch iron ore and copper prices through Q2 to confirm if commodity trends support Vale's operational strength and possibly drive its stock direction.

Vale's short interest fell 23% to 49.8 million shares, lowering short float to 1.2% and days to cover to 2.0. Scotiabank and JP Morgan maintain sector perform and overweight ratings respectively, reflecting stable but cautious views. The shares are trading near a 52-week high with mixed recent momentum and strong institutional backing from funds like Renaissance and Citadel.

The sharp decrease in short interest signals reduced bearish pressure and potential for short squeeze amid solid operational execution and commodity exposure shifts.

Evidence

Updated Thursday Short interest dropped 23% to 49,833,671 shares
4d ago Scotiabank main VALE: Sector Perform → Sector Perform
9d ago JP Morgan main VALE: Overweight → Overweight
31d ago Wells Fargo main VALE: Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight
41d ago Barclays down VALE: Overweight → Equal-Weight
46d ago Wells Fargo main VALE: Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight
87d ago Vale S.A. (VALE) Gets Downgraded to Neutral from Buy by BofA, Here’s Why yahoo-finance
87d ago Vale S.A. (VALE) Gets Downgraded to Neutral from Buy by BofA, Here’s Why yahoo-finance
4 older signals
87d ago Vale (VALE) Reports 2025 Production Growth, 17% YoY Q4 2025 EBITDA Increase
90d ago Vale S.A. (VALE) Gets Downgraded to Neutral from Buy by BofA, Here’s Why
95d ago The U.S. Just Took a Giant Step in The Rare Earth Race With China
96d ago Vale (VALE) Reports 2025 Production Growth, 17% YoY Q4 2025 EBITDA Increase
Fundamentals & Data ▾
Vale S.A. Basic Materials · Other Industrial Metals & Mining
Mkt Cap
$70B
P/E
25.0 fwd 8.3
Beta
0.75
Div Yield
762.00%
52w Range
$8.97 - $17.94
Short Interest
49.8M 1.17%
Days to Cover
2.0 -29%
Technicals mixed
vs 20d MA
+0.7%
from 52w Hi
-7.1%
Vol (20d)
28%
1w return
+1.2%
1m return
-2.1%
Vol ratio
0.9x
Analysts
bearish 0 up / 1 down
EPS Estimate
$0.50 -13.3% 30d 1up / 1dn
Est. Dispersion
40% 6 analysts
Analyst Target
$17 $15 - $21
Options P/C
0.16 0C / 1P unusual
Fund Convergence
strong Renaissance, Citadel, Bridgewater, Two Sigma
Financials
Revenue
$9.3B +14% YoY
FCF
$694M
Gross Margin
33%
Op Margin
28%
Momentum: decelerating
Top Holders
Renaissance $224M
Citadel $150M
Bridgewater $78M
Two Sigma $32M
12 signals · latest Updated Thursday

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