TXN Texas Instruments Incorporated

bullish · high conviction track record → $236.31 +3.16 (+1.4%) +9.3% since call

Mkt Cap $213B P/E 42.9 fwd 29.3 52wk $145.08 - $233.97 4h ago

Insider selling: $271,591,867 sold by 24 insiders (30d)

Est. revisions: +0.7% (2 up, 1 down in 30d)

Next event: Upcoming event (est. 3–7% move)

Backed by structured data (insider trades, analyst ratings, or filings)

Factor Model (net +0.8)

Factor Model

net +0.8 2.4 / 10

Est. Revisions

+0.0

Insider Activity

+0.0

Momentum

+0.0

Analyst Rev.

+0.6

Narrative Gap

+0.0

TXN surges 19% on AI chip boom, strong guidance

Watch: Q1 2026 earnings release to confirm if AI-driven sequential growth sustains or reveals downside risks amid high insider sales and rich valuation.

TXN shares surged 19% for their best day since 2000, adding $30B market value after beating Q1 2026 earnings and revenue estimates driven by AI chip demand. Q4 2025 revenue rose 10.4% YoY to $4.423B, with data center revenue jumping 64% YoY to $1.5B, now 9% of total. EPS missed by 3% due to higher depreciation from fab expansion, but management guided Q1 revenue between $4.32B and $4.68B and EPS $1.22-$1.48.

TXN is benefiting from expanding AI infrastructure spending beyond GPUs into analog and embedded chips, signaling durable growth across its semiconductor segments and validating its repositioning despite valuation and insider selling risks.

▼ $216.29 2026-04-16

Event Predictions

bearish TXN Q1 2026 earnings on 2026-04-22

due now

TXN earnings likely to sell off on insider selling, valuation risk

+9.3% $216.29 → $236.31

Thesis

TXN faces a 50% sell-the-news probability driven by CEO Richard K. Templeton's $91.6M in insider sales just before earnings, combined with 89% bearish signal consensus and elevated P/E of 39.8 near 52w highs. While analysts are 95% bullish (21 up/1 down), the magnitude of insider selling and lack of historical earnings data to support a beat suggest downside risk outweighs upside potential. The stock has limited room to run at -1.18% from 52w high.

Our Trades

Full track record →

+6.8%

Long Call · Wide Runner

7d held
2026-04-13

+4.7%

Long Call · Risk Manager

3d held
2026-04-09

Evidence

38m ago Cantor Fitzgerald main TXN: Neutral → Neutral

38m ago Citigroup main TXN: Buy → Buy

38m ago Stifel main TXN: Buy → Buy

38m ago Evercore ISI Group main TXN: Outperform → Outperform

38m ago Wells Fargo main TXN: Equal-Weight → Equal-Weight

38m ago Keybanc main TXN: Overweight → Overweight

38m ago Benchmark main TXN: Buy → Buy

38m ago Barclays up TXN: Underweight → Equal-Weight

7 older signals

38m ago Citigroup main TXN: Buy → Buy

38m ago UBS main TXN: Buy → Buy

38m ago JP Morgan main TXN: Overweight → Overweight

38m ago TD Cowen main TXN: Buy → Buy

38m ago Jefferies main TXN: Hold → Hold

38m ago Truist Securities main TXN: Hold → Hold

5h ago Texas Instruments Stock Surges 19% on AI Chip Boom - The Tech Buzz

Fundamentals & Data ▾

Texas Instruments Incorporated Technology · Semiconductors

Mkt Cap

$213B

P/E

42.9 fwd 29.3

Beta

0.99

Div Yield

243.00%

52w Range

$145.08 - $233.97

Short Interest

17.8M 2.17%

Days to Cover

2.9 -8%

Technicals downtrend

from 52w Hi

0.0%

1w return

+9.3%

Insiders

selling 0B / 10S

Analysts

bullish 1 up / 0 down

EPS Estimate

$1.58 +0.7% 30d 2up / 1dn

Est. Dispersion

11% 23 analysts

Analyst Target

$229 $175 - $275

Options P/C

0.78

Insider Cluster

strong sell 0B / 12S

Financials

Revenue

$4.4B +10% YoY

FCF

$1.3B

Gross Margin

56%

Op Margin

34%

Momentum: decelerating

Recent Filings & Data

insider trade 128

net selling · $271,591,867 sold

24 insiders · 128 transactions (30d)

Recent transactions

KNECHT JULIE C. · other

GARY MARK · sell · $5,236,204

GARY MARK · exercise · $1,423,248

LIZARDI RAFAEL R · sell · $15,882,150

BAHAI AHMAD · sell · $1,500,117

BAHAI AHMAD · exercise · $515,190

LIZARDI RAFAEL R · exercise · $8,422,717

ROBERTS MARK T · sell · $986,604

BAHAI AHMAD · sell · $670,387

BAHAI AHMAD · exercise · $237,780

BLINN MARK A · sell · $696,647

BLINN MARK A · exercise · $451,344

RON AMICHAI · award

GARY MARK · award

KNECHT JULIE C. · award

ROBERTS MARK T · award

DESROCHES REGINALD · award

WITZSCHE CHRISTINE · award

LEONARD SHANON J · award

YUNUS MOHAMMAD · award

KANE KATHARINE · award

HOBBY JEAN M · award

ILAN HAVIV · award

LIZARDI RAFAEL R · award

KOZANIAN HAGOP H · award

FARMER CURTIS C · award

BAHAI AHMAD · award

SANCHEZ ROBERT E · award

CRAIGHEAD MARTIN S · award

CLARK JANET F · award

KIRK RONALD · award

PATSLEY PAMELA H · award

BLUEDORN TODD M · award

COX CARRIE SMITH · award

BLINN MARK A · award

KNECHT JULIE C. · other

KOZANIAN HAGOP H · sell · $1,546,168

KIRK RONALD · sell · $1,621,688

KIRK RONALD · exercise · $528,771

WITZSCHE CHRISTINE · sell · $164,306

WITZSCHE CHRISTINE · exercise · $52,930

TEMPLETON RICHARD K · other

BAHAI AHMAD · other · $100,513

BAHAI AHMAD · sell · $308,030

BAHAI AHMAD · exercise · $118,890

BLINN MARK A · sell · $72

TEMPLETON RICHARD K · sell · $19,845,327

TEMPLETON RICHARD K · exercise · $5,375,412

TEMPLETON RICHARD K · sell · $38,645,457

TEMPLETON RICHARD K · exercise · $10,268,420

TEMPLETON RICHARD K · sell · $39,323,823

CLARK JANET F · sell · $1,234,956

CLARK JANET F · exercise · $480,712

BLINN MARK A · sell · $1,174,646

BLINN MARK A · exercise · $1,061,238

LEONARD SHANON J · sell · $401,241

BLINN MARK A · sell · $106,617

RON AMICHAI · award

GARY MARK · award

KNECHT JULIE C. · award

ROBERTS MARK T · award

DESROCHES REGINALD · award

WITZSCHE CHRISTINE · award

LEONARD SHANON J · award

YUNUS MOHAMMAD · award

KANE KATHARINE · award

HOBBY JEAN M · award

ILAN HAVIV · award

LIZARDI RAFAEL R · award

KOZANIAN HAGOP H · award

FARMER CURTIS C · award

BAHAI AHMAD · award

SANCHEZ ROBERT E · award

CRAIGHEAD MARTIN S · award

TEMPLETON RICHARD K · award

CLARK JANET F · award

KIRK RONALD · award

PATSLEY PAMELA H · award

BLUEDORN TODD M · award

COX CARRIE SMITH · award

BLINN MARK A · award

KIRK RONALD · sell · $2,142,910

KIRK RONALD · exercise · $568,474

GARY MARK · sell · $3,487,419

GARY MARK · exercise · $1,656,465

ILAN HAVIV · sell · $2,884,026

ILAN HAVIV · exercise · $1,042,348

YUNUS MOHAMMAD · sell · $1,813,145

YUNUS MOHAMMAD · exercise · $888,111

LIZARDI RAFAEL R · sell · $10,188,294

LIZARDI RAFAEL R · exercise · $4,972,771

BAHAI AHMAD · sell · $472,514

BAHAI AHMAD · exercise · $172,390

GARY MARK · sell · $940,296

WITZSCHE CHRISTINE · sell · $27,941

WITZSCHE CHRISTINE · exercise · $7,120

ILAN HAVIV · sell · $5,287,595

ILAN HAVIV · exercise · $1,981,500

SANCHEZ ROBERT E · sell · $2,085,871

SANCHEZ ROBERT E · exercise · $528,771

RON AMICHAI · sell · $2,761,472

RON AMICHAI · exercise · $1,423,248

GARY MARK · sell · $3,224,484

GARY MARK · exercise · $1,201,978

ROBERTS MARK T · sell · $1,001,498

PATSLEY PAMELA H · sell · $1,288,388

PATSLEY PAMELA H · exercise · $480,712

BAHAI AHMAD · sell · $892,427

BAHAI AHMAD · exercise · $290,778

YUNUS MOHAMMAD · sell · $789,215

ILAN HAVIV · other

ILAN HAVIV · sell · $251,324

GARY MARK · sell · $939,037

KNECHT JULIE C. · sell · $1,626,479

KNECHT JULIE C. · exercise · $829,185

LEONARD SHANON J · sell · $588,301

HOBBY JEAN M · sell · $4,369,179

HOBBY JEAN M · exercise · $1,938,668

KNECHT JULIE C. · other

TEMPLETON RICHARD K · sell · $17,925,682

TEMPLETON RICHARD K · exercise · $5,417,734

TEMPLETON RICHARD K · sell · $36,532,290

TEMPLETON RICHARD K · exercise · $11,219,520

SANCHEZ ROBERT E · sell · $1,843,964

SANCHEZ ROBERT E · exercise · $568,474

TEMPLETON RICHARD K · sell · $37,094,276

PATSLEY PAMELA H · sell · $1,789,400

PATSLEY PAMELA H · exercise · $528,771

analyst rating 19

Barclays up → Equal-Weight 14h ago

B of A Securities up → Buy 17h ago

Mizuho up → Neutral 6d ago

ae trade 2

event: +9.3% | 15 signals · latest 38m ago

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